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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Pullback in U.S. Treasury Bonds Appears Complete / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The large 6-week coil pattern in the Lehman 20-Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) hit its 3rd coordinate on the high side last Friday at 100.00 (off of the 10/17 low at 93.02), and since has pulled back to this morning's low at 96.02, which represents a 60% correction of the 10/17-10/24 upleg. The strength off of 96.02 suggests strongly that the pullback is complete and is turning to the upside to enter a new upleg that will retest and likely hurdle resistance between 100.00 and 100.86 -- on the way to 102.00.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Investment Opportunities in Municipal Bonds? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Richard_Shaw

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe $2.66 trillion municipal bond market is embroiled in the overall credit market mess, creating an unusual complex of risks and opportunities.

The supply-demand forces in the municipal bond market have been unfavorable in the past year, causing prices to decline.

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InvestorEducation

Monday, October 20, 2008

Bonds Crash as Stock Markets Bounce / InvestorEducation / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market traded sharply lower again last week as tiny glimmers of hope appeared on the horizon indicating that the worst of the financial upheaval for this month might be behind us. After a record breaking crash in equities during the first third of October, stocks actually managed to show some gains last week as some metrics of financial distress such as elevated LIBOR levels, 0% Treasury Bill yields and record premiums for Credit Default Swaps managed to subside a tad. We are far from normal on most fronts but at least for the moment it appears that the sky has stopped falling!

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

US Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin here with an urgent update on these wild, wild markets.

The key factor many investors seem to be forgetting: While stock markets have enjoyed a historic rally, bond markets are suffering a dramatic decline.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Treasury Bonds ETF Inverse Trend to Stock Market Indices / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTo some degree, the TLTs (Lehman 20 Yr T-bond, ETF) trades inversely to the equity indices like the SPYs (for instance); however, my sense is the recent upside explosion in the stock averages and the recent plunge in TLT prices have "corrected" and defused the bulk of that relationship, which if accurate, means that a new relationship is forming based less on flight-to-safety and more on the still-challenging (to put it mildly) economic fundamentals that will not be corrected any time soon.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 13, 2008

$62 Trillion Credit Default Swaps Threaten U.S. Government Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mark_OByrne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold experienced sharp falls on Friday but was still up by more than 3% on the week. This was a very impressive performance considering that major equity indices crashed some 20% to 25% for the week (see Performance table).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 06, 2008

Government Bonds Strong Rally on Grim Economic Outlook / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market traded up last week as panic in financial markets intensified. The latest and greatest $700 Billion bailout package was finally passed by the US authorities last Friday, but it did not seem to make much difference as stocks dropped another 3-4% once the deal was officially passed. As previously mentioned in this here column, it is just another band-aid that hopes to provide quick relief for the symptoms of this gigantic financial crisis without addressing the real problem of dealing with the excess credit that has been built up on all fronts. European governments have also been busy with various rescue plans. Ireland and Germany are leading the charge by declaring that those governments now will guarantee all deposits in their respective banking systems. Surely other countries, including the US , will not be far behind adopting this drastic measure.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 29, 2008

Escalating Bailout Band-aids Hit US Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBonds traded mostly in negative territory all last week. It looks like it is just regular business these days: another week, another bail-out package. The figure that is bandied about for the latest and greatest deal is a cool $700 Billion. It is just another band-aid in a series of larger and larger band-aids that hopes to provide quick relief for the symptoms of this gigantic financial crisis without addressing the real problem of dealing with the excess credit that has been built up on the consumer, corporate and government fronts. It will be raining Treasury bonds in the foreseeable future, so it is no wonder that the increasing weakness on the fundamental front is not providing much support for lower yields in the long term maturities at this juncture.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 22, 2008

US Treasury Bonds Experience Massive Volatility / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlong with the rest of the financial markets, the US Treasury market experienced massive volatility during the past week. The Long Bond future traded up over 5 points before ending the week almost unchanged. The 30 year Treasury bond yield traded below 4%, which is the lowest level in over 40 years. Even more significantly, the US 3 month Treasury Bills yielded less than 0.1% for a couple of days as financial markets threatened to seize up. All of the sudden drawing comparisons – even in the main stream media - with the 1990s Japanese depression and the Great Depression of the 1930s does not seem so far fetched any more. It took us years if not decades to get into this mess, I expect it will take a little longer than 3 to 6 months to get out!

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 15, 2008

US Treasury Bonds Slide as Financial's Take Turns at Blowing Up / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US Treasury market seems to be running out of steam here in spite of supportive data from economic fundamentals. Canadian long term bonds have kept pace with the trend to lower yields in the US market and seem to be poised for a breather as well.

The cream of the financial crop is relentlessly taking turns at blowing up. Last week it was Fannie and Freddie – the largest mortgage companies in the world, this week it was Lehman Brothers - another one of the largest investment dealers on the planet, next week it looks like it could be AIG – not long ago the largest insurance company around – that might be on the bankruptcy block.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 08, 2008

US Treasury Bonds Rally Continues as Fannie and Freddie Nationalized / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The US Treasury market has been stair-stepping higher since the middle of July. The US Long bond was within a whisker of its annual high on Friday immediately following the weaker than expected employment report. Canadian bonds also rallied in spite of disappointment with latest policy directives from the Bank of Canada.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

US Bond Yields Fall as Economies Continue to Weaken / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The Treasury market has been stair-stepping higher since the middle of July. The US Long bond is closing in on the top of its annual range as the summer draws to a close with the Labour Day weekend upon us. It is time to take deep breath and have a look at what the big picture looks like. Naturally, we are most interested in how this picture will impact interest rates going forward.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 18, 2008

US Treasury Bonds Range Trade Around 4% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Treasury market streaked to 3 positive weeks in a row even after higher than expected inflation data.

On the financial sector front, write-offs have now exceeded $500 Billion. Conservative estimates from established organizations such as the IMF are forecasting the final tab to be over a trillion dollars. Meanwhile more pessimistic forecasters such as Nouriel Roubini are looking for double that figure by the time it is all done. The take away from this story is that the write-offs are nowhere close to being finished. The flavour of the past week was auction rate securities.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 11, 2008

US Treasury Bond Market Outlook / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The Treasury market managed to make it 2 positive weeks in a row even in the face of a stronger stock market.

Last week it was Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's turn to report losses that were out of this galaxy. Both of those stocks are now trading comfortably under $10 per share, but the Administration still maintains that there is no bailout necessary to save these mortgage behemoths. Credit spreads remain under pressure and liquidity is not improving. The Wall/Bay street analyst community is slow to react but the torrent of downgrades keep poring in as a result. On-going problems on this front are likely to support the bond market.

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Portfolio

Friday, August 08, 2008

Bond Market Portfolio Building Strategies / Portfolio / US Bonds

By: Richard_Shaw

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBonds are an important part of many portfolios, particularly for those investors in mid to late states of economic life, or for endowments or pensions.

Bonds are important for capital preservation and portfolio volatility moderation.  In some cases, for experienced traders, they can also be a source of capital gains, but they are normally used for conservative purposes.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 04, 2008

US Treasury Bonds Auctions to Put Dampener on Bond Market Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn spite of the bounce in the financial stocks, the negative news continues to pour in on the earnings (or lack thereof) front in that sector. Last week we saw Merrill Lynch in the news again as they wrote off another $5 billion+ in assets. Leading basket cases Fannie and Freddie will be rescued by the government but that will not be much help to the shareholders. Ongoing problems on this front are likely to support the bond market.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

U.S. Treasuries: Worse than the US Dollar! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Stathis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThat's right. You read it correctly. Now why would I say something that even most “experts” would laugh at? Because I want to point out once again how so many out there are in the dark, even the so-called experts; you remember, the guys who missed this entire meltdown. Of course, now with so many banks in a dangerous position, I've seen many advisers change face and jump on the doom bandwagon.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 28, 2008

US Treasury Bonds Remain Range Bound / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Treasury market closed the week with slightly higher yields after a rally attempt that fizzled on Friday. With energy trading settling down somewhat – on the crude oil front anyways, the bond market started focusing on other news to drive the trading activity this past week. Earnings season on the stock side made for choppy trading along with continued problems in the financial sector. In spite of more grim news on the earnings front and a list of bankruptcy candidates in the financial sector that is multiple pages long, stocks started the week in relatively decent shape.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

US Treasury Bonds at Risk Under Weight of Debt Moutain / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alex_Wallenwein

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInstead of building its full faith and credit, the United States government is becoming increasingly faith less and is losing credit by the second while sucking individual Americans into ever-greater debt. Yet, against all expectations, Americans seem to be waking up

Wealth cannot be borrowed. For some not-so-unknown reason, Americans seem oblivious of that fact. The reason: they have been conditioned to view debt as ‘money' for decades on end, while TV commercials showed them since childhood that all you need for the good life is a credit card from so-and-so bank – and a golden one, at that.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 21, 2008

US Corporate Bond Sales Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Last week all eyes were on the Short Squeeze In Financials , triggered by a SEC Order To Protect Those Most Responsible For Naked Shorting , and fueled by nearly everyone going ga-ga over fabricated earning reports at Wells Fargo and Citigroup.

However, most missed the quiet but extremely important action in the corporate bond market. Please consider Bond Sales Slow to $5.3 Billion as Spreads Approach March Highs

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