Category: Money Supply
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Inexorable Money Supply Growth / Economics / Money Supply
The economies of Southern Europe continue to experience extreme duress. For example, the bad loans of Spanish banks jumped to 10.5% in August, which is up 17 straight months and has increased from just .72% at the end of 2007. However, the answer provided by governments and central banks to propel the economy is to create more of the same condition that brought about the problems in the first place. That is, to increase the level of base money in the hopes of increasing the rate of broad money supply growth and inflation. But despite the fact that inflation is already growing at 2.6% in the Eurozone, Mario Draghi is still promising to do whatever it takes to dilute the Euro’s purchasing power and create more inflation.
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Monday, February 14, 2011
Economists Lost in a Maze of Money Aggregates? / Economics / Money Supply
One of the most important concepts in economic theory is the quantity of money. However, when going from theory to practical application, things get messy. In the real world, it's not obvious how to count up the amount of "money" in the economy at any given time.
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Thursday, February 03, 2011
Inflationary Indications of the Broadest Measure of Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
The Gold Report interviewed John Williams of ShadowStats.com, who said, "I continue to track M3, the Fed's broadest measure of the money supply until it ceased publication in March of 2006. Generally, the broader the measure of systemic liquidity, the better it serves as a predictor. In terms of giving a signal for the economy, you have to adjust the growth for inflation."
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Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Monetary Watch December 2010: The Money Supply, a Triple From Here? / Interest-Rates / Money Supply
Our monthly Monetary Watch, an Austrian take on where we are on the monetary inflation front and what’s next…
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Wednesday, November 03, 2010
Making Sense of the Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
With the Fed’s rapid expansion of the monetary base in recent years, many commentators have pointed out that this has not led to growth in the money supply and hence the Fed is powerless to deal with “deflationary” forces in the economy.
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Thursday, September 02, 2010
I Renounce Monetarism, That Money Supply is a Leading Indicator for Aggregate Demand / Economics / Money Supply
Monetarism, the notion that the behavior of some definition of the money supply is a leading indicator of aggregate demand, is akin to malaria. Once it is in your "system," it is very difficult to totally purge it from your system. Early in my career, I was strongly sympathetic toward monetarism. In the late 1990s, I was introduced to the Austrian school of economics, in particular, the Austrian theory of the business cycle (ATBC). I was immediately sympathetic to the ATBC because bank credit played such an important role in it.
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Sunday, August 01, 2010
Austrian Money Supply Metrics, Now Global / Economics / Money Supply
On April 19th, 2010, I penned an essay called Money supply metrics, the Austrian take in which I presented the logic behind what I believe to be the correct formulation of the money supply, one based on the monetary insights of the Austrian school of economics.
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Saturday, July 17, 2010
The Money Supply Conspiracy / Economics / Money Supply
Marin Katusa is Chief Energy Strategist for Casey Research, which probably made it easier for him to get his stuff into Casey’s Daily Dispatch, whereas no matter what I write, they always say to me, “This is crap! Stop sending us your Stupid Mogambo Crap (SMC)! It’s crap! It’s always crap!”
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Friday, May 28, 2010
Mysterious Money Supply Discrepancies, Government Cover-up Full Horror / Politics / Money Supply
Richard Daughty writes: Being an inveterate conspiracy theorist who is absolutely convinced that the government is full of morons, lunatics and traitors, not to mention legions of hired goons with badges, and who have, I maintain, been hovering above my house in an invisible helicopter to shoot thought-control rays into my brain all the time (zzzt!) so that now all I can hear is voices in my head urging me to “Burn! Burn everything!”
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Thursday, May 27, 2010
The Deflationary Consequences of M3 Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
Given the fact that we sit on the precipice of a holiday weekend, every attempt will be made to keep this short and to the point. M3 growth has collapsed. We had pointed this out several months ago and again more recently amidst a barrage of protest emails that the printing press always wins the battle with the deflationary black hole. To date, the black hole is winning hands down. The reasons are nebulous and complex, but the point is that our broadest monetary aggregate is now shrinking. This does not bode well for our economic prospects moving forward.
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Sunday, May 02, 2010
Stock Market Sentiment and Monetary Aggregates - Watch Out Paperbugs! / Stock-Markets / Money Supply
The whole M1/M2/M3/MZM (among others) monetary aggregate thing is pretty dry and I am no expert on which one is most important and the fine distinctions between them. It's all paperbug drivel to intellectualize an unsustainable debt-backed paper currency system in my opinion. However, one thing is clear: when the higher monetary aggregates (e.g. M2 and M3) start declining precipitously, you can bet a recession is on the way with a high probability of being right.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Money Supply Metrics, the Austrian Take / Economics / Money Supply
All economists, whether they are of an Austrian, a Keynesian or a Monetarist bent, as well as nearly every investor, would agree that money plays a vitally important role in the economy. And a correct measure of its supply is an indispensable input into every economic and financial forecast. How could it not, for money is one half of every economic transaction.
Yet, despite its importance, the money supply metrics used by the majority of today’s economists and investors are seriously flawed, for they are founded on a faulty definition of money.
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Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Help the Poor by Stopping the Money Printing Press / Politics / Money Supply
Richard Daughty writes: I am happy to note that the Tea Party, which appeals to me personally, is gaining traction and power, which adds more political overtones to my life and gets me, a shameful Republican, away from the loathsome Republicans (except Ron Paul), which have acted almost as despicably as the Democrats.
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Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Fed Starting to Unwind Loose Monetary Policy, Could Trigger Secondary Recession / Economics / Money Supply
Officials at the Federal Reserve System insist that the FED will unwind its more than doubled monetary base. They do not say when. They do not say how. But they insist that they will do this when the economy recovers.
The FED has begun this process. The press has not paid any attention to this, but the evidence is unmistakable. Any time you want to monitor any of this, search Google for "Federal Reserve charts." You can see for yourself.
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Monday, January 25, 2010
Will the Velocity of Money Save the U.S. Economy? / Economics / Money Supply
Before we get started, let's get the forecast update out of the way. With the release of November business inventories data, we have revised up significantly our real GDP annualized growth rate for Q4:2009 - from last month's projection of 3.5% to 4.5%. Again, it is a sharp slowing in the rate of inventory liquidation that is driving this upward revision. Our projection of the annualized growth rate for final sales in Q4:2009 is 1.6%, just one tick above Q3's reported growth. So, the anticipated surge in top-line fourth-quarter growth is largely an inventory story. Unless, however, final demand begins to grow faster, the inventory story of the last year's fourth quarter will be a one-off event.
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Monday, December 14, 2009
It’s “Money in Circulation” Stupid / Economics / Money Supply
During the 1991 recession (if you can call it that) Bill Clinton made a campaign issue of “It’s the economy stupid.” It’s true, it is all about the economy. But it’s also a little more fundamental than that. It’s something that people have known intuitively for centuries. In a good economy, there was always “plenty of money” and in hard times it was “money is scarce”. Things haven’t changed, except that now those responsible for money creation are intentionally clouding the picture with all kinds of economic jawboning (dutifully reported daily by the media) to create a paranoia of both hyperinflation and deflation.
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Saturday, October 24, 2009
What Is Money?, Monetary Reform / Economics / Money Supply
An obvious response to the information that I have presented in the first eight parts of this series is this: "What should we do to reform the system?" This is a nice sentiment. It ignores the obvious: "we" have nothing to say about monetary reform.
Central banking is the most brilliant device of profit-seeking monopolists and oligopolists in human history. Nothing else comes close. Hardly anyone understands it, so there is no organized opposition.
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Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Failure of U.S. Money Supply to Grow Points to Economic Stagnation and Monetization of Debt / Economics / Money Supply
Investors should be taking some clues from the thinking of American voters. Their view, as documented by the respected Rasmusen polling organization, is rejection of the growth killing policies of the Obama Regime. Per Rasmusen, a mere 46% of voters approve of Obama Regime while 53% disapprove. The vote is in on the economic prospects for the U.S. due to policies of the failing and fading Obama Regime, and it is in the negative column.
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Thursday, June 25, 2009
Fiat Currency in Circulation, How Much Money is There? / Currencies / Money Supply
There are several different monetary aggregates used to measure a nation's money supply. These monetary aggregates can be thought of as forming a continuum from most liquid (money as a means of exchange) to the least liquid (money as a store of value).
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Saturday, June 13, 2009
The Bankers Are Scared, Are You? / Economics / Money Supply
Gary North writes: "What, me worry?"
From its beginning in 1954, the official representative of Mad Magazine has been Alfred E. Newman. He is a dim-witted looking fellow, always smiling. His slogan is, "What, me worry?"
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