Category: Gold & Silver 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, April 11, 2019
Sprout-less Gold now Tier 1 Capital / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Richard_Mills
Gold is often criticized by Wall Street as being kind of a useless investment.
Institutional investors tend to prefer investments that are thought to contain the potential for growth, growth = sprouts. An investment has to produce a growing revenue stream - if it doesn’t grow it doesn’t compound. Gold is rejected as an investment because it doesn’t produce sprouts, meaning the steady income and systematic growth so sought after by institutional investors just isn’t there.
But gold performs two jobs that fiat currencies, or any other financial innovation, cannot do; gold acts as a safe haven in times of turmoil. Indeed, gold’s status as store of value, as money, the only currency available when yours is worthless, has come into play with respect to the drama that has been unfolding in Venezuela over the last couple of years. Hyperinflation and shortages of basic foods and medicine have led to a political crisis.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
This Leading Indicator Looks Bullish for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
There are more than a handful of things I can cite as leading indicators for the Gold price.
Ratios such as Gold against the stock market and Gold against foreign currencies are generally good leading indicators. The gold stocks and Silver can function as leading indicators at times.
Yhe yield curve and bonds can also be leading indicators.
But there is one thing I’ve never mentioned, nor written about. It makes sense in the current context though. That’s Platinum.
Platinum has a brief but clear history as a leading indicator for Gold.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
In The Event Of A Fiat Currency Collapse Would Gold Rocket? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Bob_Kirtley
One of the reasons given for allocating a portion of one’s investment assets to the precious metals sector such as physical gold is that gold can be considered as an insurance policy against the devaluation of paper money. On my office wall I have framed various bank notes from an 'inflationary' period of time which include the following:
2,000,000 marks, Germany 1923
100,000,000 Pengos, Hungry 1946
5,000,000 Kwanza, Angola 1995
Wednesday, April 10, 2019
The Inverted Yield Curve as a Harbinger of Higher Gold Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
During the course of the past few weeks, we have heard much about the inverted yield curve in three-month and ten-year Treasuries as a harbinger of recessions. Missed in the press reports is the fact that it has also been a harbinger of higher gold prices. In the chart above, please note the upward surges in the price of gold in the five-year periods following the two most recent yield inversions in 2000 and 2006. The first occurred with gold trading in the $300 range. It subsequently rose to the $600-650 level in 2006. The second occurred with gold priced in the $600-650 range. It subsequently rose to over $1900 per ounce in 2011 – its all-time high.
Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Will Recovery in Payrolls and Yield Curve Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
US labor market strengthened again and the yield curve inversion looks to be over. Has the sky cleared? Hold on, Brexit is just around the corner. Given the circumstances, are gold prices more likely to rise or fall?
America Creates almost 200,000 new jobs in March
US economy added 196,000 jobs last month, following a disappointing rise of 33,000 in February (after an upward revision). The number surprised on a positive side, as the economists forecasted 177,000 created jobs.
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Friday, April 05, 2019
Will Global Slowdown Support Gold, or Is It Just Temporary? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Mayday, mayday, we are sinking! The global economy is slowing down. How serious is the current slump? We invite you to read our today’s article about the true condition of the world’s economy and find out what are its likely implications for the precious metals market.
Economists and market analysts often make volte-face. We remember that in 2018 the pundits were heralding the synchronized global growth. One year later all the talking heads prophesy the synchronized global slowdown. What is happening? How serious is the current slump? And what are the implication for the precious metals market?
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Thursday, April 04, 2019
The Impact of Monetary Policy on Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In March, the World Gold Council released the newest edition of its Investment Update. What can we learn from the publication? Let’s examine the most recent history of Fed tightening and loosening with respect to its effect on gold prices.
Is Fed’s Dovish Turn Positive for Gold?
The WGC has recently published the new Investment Update about the effects of monetary policy on gold. The main finding is that, historically speaking, when the US monetary policy turns from being tight into a neutral stance, the price of the yellow metal increases, although this effect is not always immediate. Indeed, the gold’s reaction to the March Fed’s U-turn was initially rather muted, as the chart below shows.
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Thursday, April 04, 2019
Gold and Silver Are Presenting A Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
While so many were getting so bullish of the metals market over the last few months, my work was telling me that we were not likely going to be seeing a major break out just yet. So, I have been waiting patiently for a good set up for another long trade.
But, during my wait, I have seen extremes in sentiment again. At the highs, the extremes were quite bullish. And, now, the fear is starting to creep back into the market.
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Thursday, April 04, 2019
Gold Market Confusion Reigns (Or What to Do When Nothing Makes Sense) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger discusses the pitfalls of market reversals and forecasting. As I reach end-of-week, end-of-month book-squaring, where all of my urgent e-mails and all of my myopic missives and all of my topical tweets are summarized in once terse and quite concise "Monthly P&L," I am astounded at the most recent example of how masterfully the Gold Cartel works in suckering investors into a false sense of comfort and misplaced complacency.
On March 25, just before noon, I sent out the chart of Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE) under the title of "New Idea," with the base case being a technical setup at the $14.00-14.10 level that was shaping up to be a pure, textbook break-out from three prior tops in this range dating back to October. I was buying the May $12 calls for $2.15 (50% position) on the assumption that, despite the "less-than-ideal"buy signal I got on March 6, there was a decent trade in this single stock idea, and a pretty easy shot to the $17-18 area.
I was so excited that I rang up my friend and superb technical analyst David Chapman, and asked, "Chappie, pull up Barrick and tell me if I am crazy. "To which he immediately said, "You are—I hate that stock!" However, after looking at the chart, he agreed that GOLD had indeed "broken out," and that it would surely imply a pop to the "$16, 17, 18"range without too much trouble. (He also said he wouldn't buy it "out of principle," making him both honorable and smart.)
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Wednesday, April 03, 2019
Gold, Silver, Palladium, Platinum Relative Strength Ratios Hit Rare Extremes / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
It’s possible last week’s cascading selling rout in palladium ended its multi-year bull market. The formerly white-hot metal lost more than $200/oz (but is beginning to rebound).
For now, however, palladium prices remain in a long-term uptrend above the bullishly aligned 20-week and 50-week moving averages – and physical supply remains tight.
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Wednesday, April 03, 2019
Cash Usage Down, Gold Correspondingly Up? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In February, the World Gold Council released the newest edition of Gold Investor. What can we learn from the report? Let’s discuss gold’s role in the onslaught of the cashless society, its role as a portfolio diversifier, reverse asset and source of liquidity.
Rogoff Wants Cashless Society, but Appreciates Gold
As a lot has happened recently, we didn’t have time to analyze the latest Gold Investor edition. Let’s do it today, starting with the cover article about Rogoff’s call for cashless society!
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Sunday, March 31, 2019
ADL Gold Price Predictions / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we’ve been suggesting for months, expect continued moderate price weakness in Gold and Silver through most of April 2019 and possibly into early May 2019 before a strong price rally will setup and push Gold prices well above $1500 before the end of 2019. Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive price modeling system has been calling for this move for many months (see the chart below). This advanced predictive price modeling system is suggesting that in May/June of 2019, we will likely see a bigger price rally unfold in Gold and Silver which may be paired with some type of geopolitical or global economic event. See this article for more details.
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Friday, March 29, 2019
Gold Price Sharp C-Wave Drop? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Clive Maund sees some rough waters with gold and discusses how to play it. I have not been happy about the pattern that has been forming in gold since it plunged rather rudely and sharply around the end of February. The concern that was engendered by that plunge and the accompanying momentum breakdown, that we can see on gold's latest 8-month chart below, were allayed by its managing to stabilize above its parabolic uptrend line and then rise off it. However, the rally this month has been hesitant and unconvincing, and it is now becoming clearer that it may be a B-wave bear Flag to be followed by a C-wave breakdown through the parabolic uptrend support line that would lead to a sharp drop probably towards or to the support shown in the $1240 area, where it would stabilize before later reversing to the upside again. If this is the scenario that is set to unfold, it is likely to happen soon, as the bear Flag looks about complete.
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Friday, March 29, 2019
Key Recession Indicators and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Do you want to protect your capital against recession? Great, just like us and millions of other people. The key questions is, thus, how to predict that the danger is coming. We invite you to read our today’s article and find out what are key recession indicators – and their relationship with the price of gold.
Do you want to protect your capital against recession? Great, just like us and millions of other people. The key questions is, thus, how to predict that the danger is coming. We have already showed that NBER’s indicators do not signal upcoming economic problems yet. Neither the unemployment rate nor the yield curve.
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Friday, March 29, 2019
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Setup Final Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., has been all over the precious metals markets for the past 16+ months. We’ve been so deep into research and study with regards to price action and technical/fundamental data, that we’ve been able to call market moves many months in advance.
Recently, over the past few months, we’ve been warning that an April 21~24 date is likely to set up an ultimate price bottom in the precious metals market. It could prompt a broader upside price swing that should eventually lead to a much bigger upside breakout move. On March 8, 2019, we posted this article that clearly outlined our thinking at that time saying a bounce to $1315-1320 before heading down to $1255.
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Friday, March 29, 2019
Yield Curve Inverted Even More. Is It Finally Time for Buying Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The U.S. yield curve extended its inversion. Everyone and their brother knows that recession must definitely be on the horizon. We are all doomed, so gold can only go up now, right?
Yield Curve Inversion Gets Larger
It’s getting more serious. On Friday, the yield curve inverted. This week, the spread between long-term and short-term rates has not only remained below zero, but it has dived further into negative territory. As the chart below shows, the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries fell to -0.05 on Tuesday.
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Thursday, March 28, 2019
Gold GLD Fund: Divergence Signals Shortage / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jim_Willie_CB
A Perfect Storm is hitting the Gold market, with an internal factor (QE), an external factor (SGE), and a systemic factor (Basel). All three forces are positive in releasing Gold from the corrupt clutches of the Anglo-American banker organization. The East has an all-out blitz to ditch the USDollar and to adopt the Gold Standard in its early form, namely trade payment. In the last ten years since the Lehman Brothers failure, all systems have undergone the same reckless treatment that the mortgage bonds endured. Slowly the realization is coming to the fore, stated by a few astute analysts. In the last decade, the US-UK banksters have created the USTreasury bond as the global subprime bond. This is the result of astounding persistent magnificent QE abuse, debt explosion, and hidden corruption. The so-called financial stimulus is actually hyper monetary inflation, which has destroyed the bond market. There are no legitimate USTreasury buyers outside the US foreign vassal states.
Wednesday, March 27, 2019
So Why Should You Own Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Maybe you have some gold (and silver) but not enough. Maybe you haven't added to your stash for quite awhile, and you kinda' forgot why you bought it in the first place.
Or perhaps you don't own any precious metals at all!
If one of these circumstances fits you, then it's time to refresh your memory on the multiple reasons why you should own gold, assess your risk profile and unique financial circumstances... then act!
The oft-stated Gresham's Law tells us that when a government dictates the exchange rate between different types of money, the "good," or undervalued method of exchange gets chased out by the "bad," or overvalued version.
Tuesday, March 26, 2019
Falling Yields a Catalyst for The Gold Catalyst / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Since last spring we’ve written over and over again about a Fed rate cut being the catalyst for a bull move in gold stocks.
The history is almost bulletproof. Many lows in gold stocks over the past 60 years coincided with the end of rate hikes.
At present the Federal Reserve is in pause mode and the market is on the cusp of pricing in a rate cut. Friday, Fed funds futures showed a 56% chance of a rate cut by January 2020.
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Monday, March 25, 2019
What Do Air Plane Crashes and the Precious Metals Markets Have in Common? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration worked closely together to hustle a new passenger jet through the safety certification process. The combined efforts to save time and cost, coupled with little sense of accountability, resulted in a tragic safety flaw.
Now hundreds of passengers are dead, albeit in other countries. The public is finding the enormous trust placed in the manufacturer and the agency tasked with monitoring safety was badly misplaced.
The regulator tasked with safety appeared more interested in protecting Boeing’s monopoly and bottom line.