Monday, December 28, 2015

Chinese Markets Short Term Mess But Long Term Opportunity? / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Sol_Palha

A bird doesn't sing because it has an answer, it sings because it has a song. Maya Angelou

In the short term, China is still a mess, and the reasons are all but obvious.  Greed and stupidity fuelled the bubble that popped back in June of this year.  Some estimates put the number of individuals opening new accounts without high school diplomas at over 60%. Secondly, a large portion of these investors were playing the markets with borrowed money, otherwise known as trading on margin. Making matters worse to circumvent the limits placed by regular margin trading, many turned to the shadowy banking sector, where one could borrow up to ten times the value of one’s stock holding. At the height of the mania over 500,000 new brokerage accounts were being opened per week, a clear sign that the masses were ecstatic and believed that the market could only trend higher. When you couple Greed with stupidity, the result is always unpleasant.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Stock Market Aggressive Sell Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX appears to be testing the trendline of its Orthodox Broadening Top formation and is expected to make a small bounce. At this moment, I would call the status of its current position as an aggressive sell signal, while a drop beneath the trendline at 2041.00 would turn it to a confirmed sell.

The famous stock trader, Jesse Livermore once said, “Money is made by sitting, not trading.” In this case, a short position carried since our first sell signal in early November still has value, while attempting to trade the Triangle would have led to a series of frustrations, if not losses.

Monday, December 28, 2015

What Are The Chances For Peace in 2016? / Politics / US Military

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Each year more than one trillion dollars goes up in smoke. More accurately, it is stolen from the middle and working classes and shipped off to the one percent. I am talking about the massive yearly bill to maintain the US empire. Washington's warmongers have sold the lie that the military budget has been gutted under President Obama, but even when the "Sequester" was in effect military spending continued to increase. Only the pace of increase was reduced, not actual spending.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Silver Price Tradeable Rally Probable / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Savage

I'm of the opinion that the metals have probably formed at least an intermediate bottom, and are ready to generate a trade-able rally over the next 4-8 weeks"

Monday, December 28, 2015

Do the Consumer Reports Drive the Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

GDP, employment and inflation are a Holy Trinity of economic indicators. However, reports on consumer activity are also extremely important for the financial markets. It is not surprising: consumers are the ultimate rulers of the economy and their actions affect GDP, corporate profits and stock prices, labor market, inflation, the housing market and so on. There are several ways of measuring consumer activity, but it is the Personal Income and Outlays report that is the most widely watched data on consumer spending. The report includes data both on personal income and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The latter primarily measures consumer spending on goods and services in the U.S. economy. It indicates the economic growth, since it is released monthly (while GDP is published quarterly) and it accounts for about two-thirds of the final domestic spending. Therefore, it should move very closely together with the GDP. Does it really do so? Let’s look at the chart below.

Monday, December 28, 2015

SPX, TNX Both Threatening a Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is down nearly 8 points as I write. It is possible that it has formed another Triangle formation, just as it did prior to the August panic. If so, we may see a break to the downside sometime this week. Most other analysts are focused on the idea that this is bullish. A break of the lower trendline will be proof that it isn’t.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Stock Market No Clear Short-Term Direction - Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Monday, December 28, 2015

Happy Hunger Games - The Odds are Never in Your Favor / Politics / Social Issues

By: James_Quinn

The irony of the phrase "may the odds be ever in your favor" is not lost on the readers of the Hunger Games trilogy of novels or the film adaption. Despite the grimness of the story, over 65 million copies of the books have been sold. The total box office take so far has exceeded $1.4 billion for the four movies. The dystopian series tackles real issues like severe poverty, starvation, torture, oppression, betrayal and the brutality of war. It doesn't fit into the standard film making success recipe of feel good fluff, politically correct storylines and happy endings. Each film in the series gets progressively darker, with the final episode permeating doom and gloom. The books and the movies capture the deepening crisis mood engulfing the world today. And they realistically portray the world as a place where there are no good guys in positions of power. The ruling class, in all cases, is driven by a voracious appetite for supremacy, wealth, and control.

Monday, December 28, 2015

This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis, Canadian Dollar Edition / Currencies / Canadian $

By: John_Rubino

Along with the currencies of most other commodity-exporting countries, the Canadian dollar has been in near-freefall lately.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Crude Oil, SP500, Exxon Mobil - When Will They Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Chris_Vermeulen

A full blown bear market in energy resources and energy stocks has been underway since mid-2014. History shows that the price of crude oil typically bottoms before the broad stock market. And oil related stocks bottom at the same time or later than the broad market.

The monthly chart below shows how oil bottoms several months before the stock market does. This provides us with some insight on when we should start to expect a bear market to end in the US stock market.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Stocks Bear Market is On Hold For Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Still Bull Market?

SPX: Intermediate trend - The index may have made a secondary top at the 2104 level and started another decline of intermediate duration.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, December 27, 2015

UK Climate Change Floods Crisis to Hit House Prices 2016 and Beyond / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst Britain was still dealing with the consequences of the floods of the northern most regions of England of barely 3 weeks ago, now the conveyor belt of heavy rainfall has been working its way down the length of Britain to encompass much of the North of England, Yorkshire and Lancashire and increasingly starting to impact on central England. These are further signs of the real consequences of climate change as the diverging Jet Stream, a conveyor belt for dumping heavy rainfall onto Britain is increasingly becoming a common occurrence that is likely to persist for many more months with the next heavy deluge expected Wednesday.

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Stock Market, GDX Topping Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Since it is still the Holiday Season, I am making this article brief. The SPX is at the 16 TD top 3 TD as of Christmas Eve. There is an 8 TD top due Dec 30 2 TD's with the moon in Leo/Virgo on the 29th. On the 29th, Mercury squares Mars, and again this will happen on the 5th of January (these are negative). Last time we had a top like this (moon in Leo/Virgo) was Dec 1/2. Christmas Eve was the 4/8 TD low, so we may see a pop up on Monday. It looks similar to the late July top right now, so it could go into Dec 30 and as high as 2092/95. The Put/Call ratios are also very similar to that time frame.

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Christmas Wins Again! / Politics / US Politics

By: Walter_Brasch

The mythical War on Christmas is over and once again Christmas won.

The war was created out of fairy dust, and then neatly wrapped up and delivered to religious right-wing extremists by pretend-generals Bill O’Reilly, Sean Hannity, Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, and a cast of dozens who have seized the public airways.

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Yet Another Reason To Invest in Vietnam and Pakistan / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Submissions

Dylan Waller writes: Vietnam and Pakistan’s automotive industries are both poised for substantial growth, and consequently present a flurry of investment opportunities.  Both countries have been positive outliers in Asia, due to superior stock market performance, higher economic growth, and also due to the relatively lower FX risks.  As both countries begin their transition to emerging markets, the automotive industry in particular represents a strategic outlet for investors to profit from the superior investment landscape that is present in both countries.

Saturday, December 26, 2015

Deflation is Back… Will It Lead to Another Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Graham_Summers

Central Bankers are flummoxed.

Having cut interest rates over 600 times since 2009 (and printed over $15 trillion), they’ve yet to generate the expected economic growth.

Despite these failures, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan are currently engaging massive QE programs. The Fed is the only major Central Bank not rapidly expanding its balance sheet.

Saturday, December 26, 2015

Stocks Bull Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2006. On Monday the market gapped up at the open, traded back down to SPX 2006 then closed where it opened at 2021. Tuesday and Wednesday displayed gap up openings as well, as the market traded up to SPX 2065. Thursday’s half day trading was quiet, but the rally hit SPX 2067 before ending the week at 2061. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.65%, the NDX/NAZ gained 2.50%, and the DJ World index gained 2.30%. Economic reports for the week were positive. On the uptick: the FHFA, PCE, personal income/spending, consumer sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: Q3 GDP, existing/new home sales, and Q4 GDPn. Next week is of course is the New Year, markets will be closed Friday, and reports will be highlighted by the Chicago PMI and Case-Shiller.

Saturday, December 26, 2015

The Force Awakens Star Wars U.S. Evil Empire vs Islamic JEhaDI Rebels? / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Star Wars franchise has returned with a block buster movie 'The Force Awakens' that once more pits a resurgent technologically advanced First Order Evil Empire against the religiously motivated but lightly armed desert dwelling JEhaDI warriors in an apparent war that involves the fulfillment of ancient prophecies.

Friday, December 25, 2015

PPI Refund Claims Scam / Nuisance Call Christmas Fun - Cold Callers Beware! / ConsumerWatch / Scams

By: N_Walayat

If people actually answered the phone every time it rang then no one would get any work done! For the people of Britain, as amongst of most developed countries, are subject to a daily barrage of cold callers trying to sell or scam their way out of ones hard earned money or whatever one may be legitimately entitled and PPI cold callers must rank near the top of the nuisance / scam callers list.

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Stocks in Interest Rate Hike Cycles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

The stock-market outlook in 2016 is riddled with great uncertainty following the Fed ending its 7-year-old zero-interest-rate policy.  With the first rate-hike cycle in nearly a decade just getting underway, traders are anxiously wondering how it will impact the stock markets.  While raising rates out of ZIRP is radically unprecedented, stock-market reactions during past rate-hike cycles still offer some interesting insights.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy decisions are no longer peripheral concerns for stock-market fortunes.  Thanks to the Fed’s extreme easing of recent years, its actions have usurped everything else to become the stock markets’ overwhelmingly dominant driver.  And unfortunately the wildly-outsized upside impact on stock prices by the uber-dovish Fed is highly likely to portend proportional downside.