Monday, April 20, 2020
Stock Market End of Countertrend Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: An “official” bear market has now been declared.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate low mid-year.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Sunday, April 19, 2020
Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications
Whilst the UK's trend trajectory appears to be stabilising, which offers some light at the end of Britains' dark coronavirus tunnel. However, the key driver for stock market trends, the US is still accelerating away which means more uncertainty that the stock markets are likely to seek to discount as the markets are seeking numbers that are first stabilising in the rate of increase and then to start decreasing on a daily basis, instead were still in the DOUBLING ever 2 to 3 days phase!
This implies to continue expect a bearish trend trajectory despite Fed panic actions, and the US sending $1200 checks to every american who earns under $75,000 per year, with likely several more payments over the coming months. Though Dr Fauci putting a number of 100k to 200k deaths may shock americans and the markets, especially given Trump's ramblings of how it will all be over by Easter. Nevertheless gives a number against which the general public and markets will be measuring relative strength and weakness. For instance the US is currently trending towards 38,000 deaths by the end April in the face of which the markets could out perform if the number of deaths is seen to far under achieve the bottom figure of 100k.
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Sunday, April 19, 2020
Stock Market Range-bound Price Action Awaiting Resolution / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Wednesday's session played out as a range day. Most of the downside action occurred during Tuesday night, and Wednesday’s regular trading hours were spent bouncing from our key support zone in the 2750 area back to the middle of the range towards 2785/2800 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). As we demonstrated in real-time in our ES Trading Room at ElliottWaveTrader, it was just a textbook feedback loop squeeze setup given that bears/sellers kept failing to breakdown below our key 2750's support.
The main takeaway remains the same: Price action is still battling between our 4-hour white line and red line price projections. Price action is inside a range of 2840-2750 for the time being and trapping both sides, so traders need to be more patient in this area and wait for additional clues/edges.
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Sunday, April 19, 2020
Why the Coronavirus Could Raise Wages / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Patrick_Watson
US unemployment shot higher in the last month, thanks to coronavirus closures. Some 17 million people filed new jobless benefit claims.
But it’s actually even worse.
Overwhelmed web sites and bureaucratic snafus kept many from applying. Others, while still nominally “employed,” saw their wages or hours cut. It’s terrible and will keep getting worse until the shutdowns ease and people believe they can circulate safely again.
But while the immediate outlook is dire, these events could ultimately mean higher wages for many workers. To see why, we have to think a few steps ahead.
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Sunday, April 19, 2020
Does Gold Really Care Whether Coronavirus Brings Us Deflation or Inflation? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
One of the many bothering issues about the coronavirus crisis, is whether it will turn out to be inflationary or deflationary. What do both of these scenarios mean for gold ahead?
US Inflation Rate Declines in March
Many people are afraid that the coronavirus crisis will spur inflation. After all, the increased demand for food and hygiene products raised the prices of these goods. Moreover, the supply-side disruptions can reduce the availability of many goods, contributing to their increasing prices.
Sunday, April 19, 2020
An Alternative to the Lockdown Strategy in the Fight Against Coronavirus / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
The current coronavirus strategy of most governments is a recipe for a worldwide economic disaster. In many countries, the strategy of confinement and forcing shops to close is a sure-fire path to large-scale business failures. The cascade of economic and financial repercussions to come is likely to lead to another Great Depression.
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Saturday, April 18, 2020
VITAMIN D3 Could Save Your Life! Protect From COVID-19 Infections / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness
By: N_Walayat
Vitamin D could save your life! Latest medical studies confirm that Vitamin D3 protects from repertory infections bacterial or viral such as influenza and Covid-19!
Which means Vitamin D could :
a. Stop you from becoming infected.
b. If infected have a far milder illness
c. And if you are unlucky to have severe illness, then Vitamin D supplementation now could make the difference between recovering or dying!
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Saturday, April 18, 2020
SILVER AND COVID-19, CAPITALISM’S BLACK SWAN / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Regarding today’s markets and gold and silver, on April 15th, Sandeep Jaitly wrote:
COURSE OF THE EXCHANGE
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
Metals update: backwardation or not?
Over the past few weeks and months, there have been seismic changes in the way people are thinking of markets – and the concept of markets – generally.
As evidenced by movements in the Federal Reserve’s sale and repurchase facility from last September, which has resulted in the TARP balance sheet reaching a record of $6,000bn and at a record rate of over $630bn/month since the year began, there are ‘issues’ with all markets – in as much as markets are markets with ‘monetary’ fiat.
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Saturday, April 18, 2020
If Stock Investors Crunched Economic Data Like This Their Expectations Would Change Dramatically / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Chris_Vermeulen
New economic data being released as earnings start to hit may alter how investors perceive the recent price recovery in the US and global markets. Many institutional analysts began suggesting “the bottom is in” and recently began to issue stronger forward guidance. The new data suggests we are seeing an economic contraction that, in some cases, maybe 2x or 3x the contraction that took place in the 2008-09 Credit Crisis.
The US stock markets reacted to this news and earnings data by collapsing over -2% in early trading. Gold and Silver are both lower as we write this article which would indicate weakness across the broader market. We continue to believe a deeper price low will set up in the near future with the US and global stock prices attempting to retest recent price lows – possibly falling below these levels. We believe the collateral damage to consumer engagement, manufacturing, transportation, retail/leisure, real estate and other sectors of the economy is just now starting to become evident. What the economy may look like near Mid-May is anyone’s guess.
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Saturday, April 18, 2020
In Every Stock Bear Market, One Asset Always Surges in Value / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"The relative value of cash will necessarily zoom higher when stocks plunge."
A negative sentiment toward cash had been in place for quite some time.
Let's go back a little more than a year when our Feb. 2019 Elliott Wave Theorist showed this chart and said:
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Saturday, April 18, 2020
Could This Be a “Suckers” Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Everyone I know who is not involved in the stock market or has little knowledge about it is calling me and asking what stocks, indexes, and commodities to buy because everything is so cheap and dividends are juicy again.
Just look at the market sentiment chart, and price cycles that the stock market goes through, and listen to my talk below while reviewing these to images. It’s not rocket science, but the lack of education on the financial markets coupled with the force of greed to make money and miss out on the next big bull market has everyone getting suckered into this dead-cat bounce, also known as a bear trap, bear market rally.
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Friday, April 17, 2020
Coronavirus Attack is America's Pearl Harbor Moment - US Heading for War in South China Sea / Politics / China US Conflict
By: Nadeem_Walayat
WAR WITH CHINA MEGA-TREND
CHINA LIED ABOUT EVERYTHING! NUMBER OF INFECTED, NUMBER OF DEATHS THAT WERE LIKELY MORE THAN FIVES TIMES THAT WHICH THEY REPORTED TO THE WORLD!
If you have been following my analysis for sometime then you will be aware that one of the key mega-trend drivers of our time is the War with China mega-trend that I set forth in the following two pieces of in-depth analysis of what I expected to follow that were posted BEFORE Trump took office, a TREND that remains firmly in progress encompassing Trade, Economic, Cyber, Market, Corporate, Territory, Military and Nuclear!
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Friday, April 17, 2020
Coronavirus And The Coming Financial Revolution / Companies / Banking Stocks
By: OilPrice_Com
The coronavirus pandemic is one of the biggest and unprecedented seismic shifts in the global economy that we’ve ever seen in modern history, and it’s just getting started.
Already, economies around the world are shutting down. The federal reserve has pumped trillions into the United States economy in just a matter of days. Global supply chains have collapsed as entire Chinese industries went dark. And this is just the first stage. We’re heading into a year’s long recession that will have far-reaching consequences, some of which we can predict with near certainty, and some of which will be entirely unpredictable.
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Friday, April 17, 2020
The Trump COVID-19 Deflection Game / Politics / Pandemic
By: Dan_Steinbock
President Trump blames the WHO for his administration’s COVID-19 debacle. In reality, the White House knew about the virus threat already on Jan 3 but chose not to mobilize until late March.
In a recent interview with Fox News, President Trump said that the projections and pronouncements of the World Health Organization (WHO) about the coronavirus pandemic have been routinely wrong.
"Literally, they called every shot wrong," the president added. "They didn't want to say where [coronavirus] came from.” Threatening the WHO with the withdrawal of US funding, Trump charged WHO director-general Dr Tedros for siding with “Communist China.”
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Friday, April 17, 2020
AI Fibonacci Modeling Predicts Silver at $26 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system incorporates an intelligent “Inference Engine” into internal decision-making and future analysis. This type of “Adaptive Learning” is one of the core elements of Artificial Intelligence – the ability to read inputs, adapting to price structures and setups and infer expected outcomes/results based on a complex decision-making process. Today, we are alerting you that our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting $26 is the next target level for Silver (which is currently trading near $15.65).
Learning how to interpret the data presented by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is simple – it does the internal analysis automatically and presents future target levels and trigger levels on the charts as lines and blocks. Trigger levels are set up as both GREEN and RED lines for current Bullish and Bearish Trends. Each of these trends also has target BLOCKS drawn out into the future representing where the Adaptive Fibonacci system believes the next price target will be located. These target levels are determined by the Adaptive Learning Inference Engine and represent the best outcome of the true Fibonacci price structure we can deliver.
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Thursday, April 16, 2020
This 6-Week Stocks Bear Market May Be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
So, if you are like most market participants, there are many fallacies which you have likely accepted of late.
First, you are likely viewing this “bear market” as having begun 6 weeks ago. Yet, if you actually understood the broader market in a bit more depth and better context, you would actually be viewing this “bear market” as having begun in early 2018. This is actually supported by the great majority of the stocks underlying the market. So, while the SPX rallied much higher than its 2018 highs, most stocks as well as many other indices did not. So, much of the evidence suggests this “bear market” has lasted over 2 years at this point in time, and is likely closer to its conclusion than just beginning.
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Thursday, April 16, 2020
Downside Market Tradining Opportunities Everywhere – Watch These Symbols / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As the global markets enter the Q1 earnings season where a host of new data and expectations will flood the markets over the next 30+ days, skilled traders should put these three symbols on their watch-list over the next few days and weeks.
We’ve been writing about how we believe the downside risks within the US and global stock markets are still very real. Many industry analysts believe the bottom has set up in the US stock market already – we don’t believe this is the case. Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system continues to suggest a deeper downside move is in the works and we believe this potential retest of recent lows will setup another incredible opportunity for skilled traders.
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Thursday, April 16, 2020
Fed Caught Off Guard by Coronavirus Economic Shock. And Gold? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Another week passed, and the number of jobless claims increased further. That was clearly not expected by the Fed, as the recent minutes shows. What does it all mean for the gold market?
Unemployment Claims Rose Further
Initial jobless claims have become one the most important data about the US economy these days. So, let’s take a look at the chart below, which offers the updated graph revealing the number of new claims for unemployment benefits.
Thursday, April 16, 2020
3 Top Oil Stocks to Buy Right Now / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Due to several recent events, including a price war initiated by Russia, the price of oil has declined to record-low levels these past couple of weeks. Subsequently, the price decline resulted in a massive worldwide panic which pushed the price down even further.While the panic might reasonable and based on a real fear of what the situation might lead to, there are still ways that investors can protect their funds. And for those willing to risk a little extra, some investments could even pay off in the short run, especially when investing in stable oil stocks.
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Wednesday, April 15, 2020
All of the Coronavirus Depression Economic Recovery Models Will Be Wrong Too / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: MoneyMetals
“All of the projection models were wrong. All of them,” admitted New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in an interview last week with MSNBC.
Governor Cuomo had been issuing frantic demands for tens of thousands of ventilators... that turned out not to be needed as the rate of new hospitalizations for COVID-19 infections in New York plunged with surprising speed.
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