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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 09, 2019

Stock Market Prediction – PART I / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we enter the final stage of our market predictions from nearly 5 months ago, we thought it would be a good time to revisit these predictions and to update all of our followers with some timely and, apparently, accurate market data.  We hope that many of you remember out predictions from September 2018 where we called for a 5~8% market decline, followed by a basing market headed into the November 2018 US elections, followed by a deep “Ultimate Low” price rotation before we called for an incredible upside price rally?  The reason it is so important to watch for and understand all of our research is that we are attempting to provide great value and insight to our followers as well as help them protect their open positions from unknown risks.

As a bonus to all of this, we are going to include predictions made by our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system that originated from December 2017 going all the way forward through to the end of May 2019.  Can you imagine what it would be like to have a tool that could show you what is likely to happen going forward 6 months, 12 months or even 24 months into the future?  Well, that is what we have with the ADL predictive price modeling system and we are going to show you how well it has been able to pick the future of the markets for the past 15+ months.  Here we go.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 09, 2019

Gold, Silver Precious Metals Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

I reserve most of the work on precious metals for NFTRH weekly reports and in-week updates because it is done on a consistent basis, with the work done previously key to the narrative making sense in real time and going forward. In other words, in order to not be out there stabbing in the dark you need to have an ongoing, adjustable plan that makes sense at all times with the macro markets around it.

So that said, let’s take a snapshot of where things stand currently with the understanding that this work will need future updates, which will probably not be made publicly. It is up to the reader to do the work required to put context to the picture. Meanwhile, this will free up more space in next week’s NFTRH 538 to focus on some quality miner charts, which sometimes take a back seat to the macro/sector stuff.

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Politics

Friday, February 08, 2019

The Wealthy Should Prepare to Be Soaked / Politics / Taxes

By: Patrick_Watson

Taxes are a touchy subject. Nobody likes paying them, but (unless you’re an anarchist) we all realize at least some taxation is necessary. We just want it to be fair and reasonable. Exactly what that means is a never-ending debate.

A newly elected member of Congress stoked up the debate last month. She may have opened a box some folks would like to keep closed.

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Economics

Friday, February 08, 2019

US Business Confidence Is Starting to Crack / Economics / Recession 2019

By: Patrick_Watson

Actions speak louder than words.

That’s why surveys asking people what they think about the economy aren’t always useful. Their actions might not match their words.

Of course, attitudes are important because they guide our decisions, even though we don’t act on them consistently.

Not everyone’s decisions have equal impact, though. Business owners and CEOs have more influence because they make bigger decisions: whether to create new jobs, raise wages, buy new equipment, and so on.

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Politics

Friday, February 08, 2019

Science Says Protectionism Won’t Work / Politics / Protectionism

By: Patrick_Watson

The simmering trade war is still... well, simmering. Markets rise and fall with each new rumor.

That’s an important change. It took months for investors to realize this wasn’t just another Trump threat. In fact, trade policies he thinks unfair have long been one of his sore spots. Now he can do something about them, and he’s surrounded himself with hardline advisors.

Unfortunately, victory is not at hand. More like the opposite:

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Commodities

Friday, February 08, 2019

20 Year of Eurozone and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The old continent is dying. The euro is on the brink of collapse. This is what you can often hear in the press. But is that really the case? We invite you to read our today’s article about the development of the Eurozone in the last twenty years and find out what are the real prospect of the euro – and what does it imply for the gold market.

In December, we celebrated 40 years of market reforms in China. In January, there was another important anniversary: 20 years of the euro area. So, let’s move from East Asia to Europe, analyzing the economic situation of the Eurozone and its implications for gold.

After years of negotiations and preparations, the euro was launched on January 1st, 1999. Initially, the shared currency was only virtual, and the national currencies were still legal tenders used in circulation. For ordinary citizens little changed. However, the exchange rates between national currencies were locked at fixed rates against each other, while the European Central Bank took control over their monetary policy. The euro notes and coins entered the circulation three years later.

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Personal_Finance

Friday, February 08, 2019

Top Myths and Facts about ULIP Plans / Personal_Finance / Insurance

By: Justin_Weinger

ULIPs (Unit Linked Insurance Plans) offer you the combination of both investment and insurance components in a single entity. However, there are a plethora of myths surrounding ULIPs products due to lack of knowledge and understanding of its features & benefits. Here’s a look into some of the common myths and their counterpart reality associated with ULIPs which will help you make informed decisions:

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Housing-Market

Friday, February 08, 2019

Intense First Time Buyer Mortage Competition Sees Average Two-year Fixed Rate Fall / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Despite the Bank of England base rate rise of 0.25% to 0.75% in August 2018, Moneyfacts.co.uk research has shown that the overall average two-year fixed mortgage rate has actually fallen by 0.04% from 2.53% in August 2018 to 2.49% today.

Notably, the average two-year fixed rate at the maximum 95% loan-to-value (LTV) tier has fallen by 0.54% over the same period, while at tiers such as 70% LTV the average rate has increased by 0.14%, indicating that providers may be focusing their attention at the riskier higher LTV tiers.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 08, 2019

A Major Stocks Bear Market in 2020? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

As the bull market and economic expansion ages, the current economic expansion is soon going to be tied for the longest economic expansion in history. Of course economic expansions and bull markets don’t die of old age – they die when leading economic indicators deteriorate significantly.

We are seeing signs of deterioration now, but they are not significant yet.

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Commodities

Friday, February 08, 2019

Gold Market Extremes Test Your Mettle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

This article was originally published on Sun Feb 3 for members of ElliottWaveTrader: Extremes are the hallmark of the metals market. And those that handle the extremes best are usually the ones who do best in the metals market.

Consider the extremes we experienced in August and September of 2011. Gold had days where it would rally $50 in a single day during its final parabolic move. Moreover, everyone you spoke with would express their certainty that gold would soon eclipse the $2,000 mark, on its way to much higher levels.

Yet, I remained steadfast in my analysis which suggested the $1,915 region would provide us with a top. While the market continued $6 higher than my expectation, I think we all recognize what occurred at that time.

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Politics

Friday, February 08, 2019

The Venezuela Myth Keeping Us From Transforming Our Economy / Politics / Venezuela

By: Ellen_Brown

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is getting significant media attention these days, after Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said in an interview that it should “be a larger part of our conversation” when it comes to funding the “Green New Deal.” According to MMT, the government can spend what it needs without worrying about deficits. MMT expert and Bernie Sanders adviser professor Stephanie Kelton says the government actually creates money when it spends. The real limit on spending is not an artificially imposed debt ceiling but a lack of labor and materials to do the work, leading to generalized price inflation. Only when that real ceiling is hit does the money need to be taxed back, but even then it’s not to fund government spending. Instead, it’s needed to shrink the money supply in an economy that has run out of resources to put the extra money to work.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 07, 2019

The Battle for Venezuela’s Gold Serves as a Lesson in Counterparty Risk / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

He who controls the gold makes the rules. That old adage applies aptly to the present crisis in Venezuela.

An international battle for control of Venezuela’s gold is currently underway. At stake is the country’s political future – and with it, the global market for its immense oil reserves.

In a desperate effort to cling to power, Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro has been depleting his country’s gold reserves.

The oil-rich nation once had gold reserves of over 160 tons. But in recent months, Venezuela has sold off dozens of tons of gold to allies such as Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Russia in exchange for euros and other globally recognized currencies.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 07, 2019

What Alchemists Think about the Impact of Changes in Automotive Industry on Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The new Alchemist is out. What can we learn from the latest publication of the LBMA? We invite you to read our today’s article and find out!

Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OenB) and Gold

In the previous edition of the Gold News Monitor, we have already analyzed one article from the newest Alchemist about the gold outlook for 2019. Today, we would like to return to the publication and examine the remaining ones, which are no less interesting.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 07, 2019

Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Quick Correction Before Another Leg Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks slightly retraced their recent advance yesterday, as investors took some short-term profits off the table. The S&P 500 index remained above the 61.8% retracement of its September-December sell-off. Is this a topping pattern or just a correction within the uptrend?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.1-0.4% on Wednesday, retracing some of their recent advance, as investors took short-term profits off the table. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation on Wednesday a week ago and it continued higher. The market is above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% (2,713.88). It has gained 390 points from the late December medium-term low, but it is still around 200 points below the September 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4% on Wednesday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,750-2,760, marked by some previous local highs. The resistance level is also at 2,800, marked by the early December local high. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,700-2,710, marked by the previous resistance level. The support level is also at 2,650.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 07, 2019

Gold Price Breaks Lower – What Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Technical Traders Ltd. research team has been on top of nearly every move in the metals markets over the past 12+ months.  On February 1, we posted this article: Get Ready For The Next Big Upside Leg In Metals/Miners.  In this post, we suggested that the recent peak in Gold, near $1330, would likely end and prompt a downside price rotation over the next 45+ days.

Subsequently, on January 28, we posted this article: 45 Days Until A Multi-Year Breakout For Precious Metals.  In that post, we highlighted our predictive modeling systems support of a sideways price correction in the precious metals markets that would align with US stock market strength and US Dollar strength.

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Currencies

Thursday, February 07, 2019

Euro, USD, AUD, CHF Trends, Trend Exhaustion and the Shifting Ground / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Nadia_Simmons

There are times when keeping an eye on the markets is as exciting as watching paint dry. Then, there are times when great leaps literally happen faster than you can blink. You be the judge as to whether the former or the latter better applies to the euro and Australian dollar right now.

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Politics

Thursday, February 07, 2019

Eat Less Meat and Save the Planet / Politics / Climate Change

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s been quite a while since we last heard from Dr. D. He was probably busy growing stuff. But he’s back now, and with something dear to my heart: the craziness of our food production systems. Answers to which are not always what most people think, to put it mildly.

Dr. D:

Eat less meat to save the planet – report (1)
The new diet that could save the planet (2)
What to eat to save the planet: Report urges ‘radical changes’ to world’s diet – less meat, more veggies (3)

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 07, 2019

Corporate Earnings Growth is Falling and Turning Negative. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings

By: Troy_Bombardia

As the stock market rallies higher and is on the verge of breaking out above its 200 day moving average, the outlook for Q1 2019 corporate earnings growth is falling. Is this bad news for the stock market?

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 07, 2019

The Global Economy Has Run Off a Cliff… and the Stock Markets Know It / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Stocks continue to live in la la land.

While the media and investment herd celebrate a V-shaped stock recovery based on the Fed admitting things are far worse than previously known, more and more signals are appearing that the global economy has run off a cliff.

Germany and France are bordering on recession. Italy is definitively already in recession. Japan is on the verge of another contraction. And China is facing a systemic collapse (real GDP growth is 2%, not the ridiculous 6% they claim).

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 06, 2019

Higher Interest Rates & Market Risks Require Active, Careful Investment Management / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins me for a terrific conversation about gold, the Fed, stocks and the dollar. And find out why he believes investors will soon realize that it DOES matter again about where you put your money. Don’t miss my interview with Axel Merk, coming up after this week’s market update.

Gold and silver markets closed out the month of January on a high note as the Federal Reserve signaled it would back off on further rate hikes.

On Wednesday, Fed policymakers voted unanimously to leave the central bank’s benchmark interest rate unchanged. Fed chairman Jerome Powell cited recent weakness in economic growth forecasts.

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