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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Sunday, November 26, 2017

The Big Three Commodities : Copper, Oil and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to show you some long term charts for the big three, Copper, Oil and Gold. There are a lot of similarities between them which is strongly suggesting all three should be in new bull markets. The laggard is gold which has still not confirmed its new bull market but is getting closer as you will see. The key will be what the US dollar has up its sleeves so lets start with a daily chart for the US dollar.

The US dollar still hasn’t totally broken down yet, but it did have a failed inverse H&S bottom. It was a very beautiful and symmetrical H&S bottom that looked like it was going to reverse the downtrend that is right at a year old now. It had a nice clean breakout above the neckline with a clean backtest from above. All looked good. After a brief rally the US dollar declined once more to the neckline, but this time the neckline failed to hold support, strongly suggesting the H&S bottom was failing.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 25, 2017

Silver Mining Stocks Q3’17 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners’ stocks have really languished this year, grinding sideways to lower for months on end.  This vexing consolidation has fueled near-universal bearishness, leaving silver stocks deeply out of favor.  But once a quarter when earnings season arrives, hard fundamentals pierce the obscuring veil of popular sentiment.  The silver miners’ recently-reported Q3’17 results reveal today’s silver prices remain profitable.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  These are generally due by 45 days after quarter-ends in the US and Canada.  They offer true and clear snapshots of what’s really going on operationally, shattering the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment.  There’s no silver-miner data that is more highly anticipated than quarterlies.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 25, 2017

Buy Gold As Fed Shows Uncertainty And Concern Over Financial ‘Imbalances’ / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– FOMC minutes show uncertainty and concern about markets are affecting officials’ decision-making
– Officials were cautious when evaluating market conditions and the ‘damaging effects on the economy’
– Worry about ‘potential buildup of financial imbalances’ and a sharp reversal in asset prices’
– Members seem oblivious to impact of inflation on households and savings
– Physical gold and silver remain the only assets for real diversification and safety

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Commodities

Thursday, November 23, 2017

Is This Gold Rally The Start Of Something Big? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

First published on Sunday Nov 19 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: While I would love to believe that the rally we saw on Friday is the start of the next larger degree break out in the metals complex for which many have been eagerly awaiting, there are many signs that suggest it is only part of a corrective rally.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 23, 2017

The Precious Metals Bears' Fear of Fridays / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Dimitri_Speck

In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have shown that the gold price behaves quite peculiarly in the course of the trading week. On average, prices rise almost exclusively on Friday. It is as though investors in this market were mired in deep sleep for most of the week.

Upon this I received a plethora of inquiries from readers regarding the corresponding moves in silver.

Thus I examine the behavior of the silver market on individual days of the week in this issue of Seasonal Insights.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Geopolitical Risk Highest “In Four Decades” – Global Gold Demand to Remain Robust / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Geopolitical risk highest “in four decades” should push gold higher – Citi
– Elections, political and macroeconomic crises and war lead to gold investment
– Political uncertainty in Germany means “gold likely to remain in good demand as a safe haven” say Commerzbank
–  “There has rarely been such political uncertainty in Germany at any time in the country’s post-war history” – Commerzbank
– Reduce counter party risk: own safe haven allocated and segregated gold

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Relationship between Crude Oil Price and Oil Stocks / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although verification of the last week breakdown under important resistance line pushed black gold under $56, oil bulls didn’t give up and triggered a pullback. What does it mean for light crude? Will the relationship between crude oil and oil stocks give us more clues about future moves?

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Harry Dent’s Gold Prediction Invalidated / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

We were recently asked to comment on Harry Dent’s predictions for the gold market and we thought that our reply might benefit other gold investors as well. To be precise, we were asked about Harry Dent’s 30-year cycle that supposedly peaked in 2011, and we supposedly could expect gold to peak again somewhere between 2038 and 2040 (you can watch the interview here). The indirect implication is that gold is not likely to soar sooner and that it’s likely to decline for a relatively long time.

Mr. Dent is referring to gold as a premier commodity and he claims that it moves up and down with the commodity cycle, which, in his opinion, is 30 years.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Gold Sector is On a Long-term Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

What History Says for Gold Stocks in 2018-2019 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It has been a while since we’ve applied historical analysis to the precious metals sector. It is something we really enjoy as history can help define and contextualize current trends and help us spot opportunities. Back in March of this year we noted that the gold stocks could be following the path of recovery of housing stocks since their 2009 bottom. Recently, James Flanagan of Gann Global Financial has produced some excellent videos discussing some historical comparisons that are quite relevant to the gold stocks at present. We saw his videos, remembered our housing analog and wanted to take it a step further. What was the path of recovery of markets following mega bear markets?

We define a mega bear market as at least an 80% decline that lasted roughly three to four years. The image below highlights the data we’ve compiled. Some of the bears are only two years long but they follow the general recovery path. That consists of a very strong initial rebound that lasts six to twelve months which is followed by a correction and consolidation which usually lasts 18 months to two years. Then, the market begins its next impulsive advance.

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Commodities

Monday, November 20, 2017

Crude Oil – General Market Link / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Thursday, the overall situation in crude oil hasn’t changed much as the commodity wavered around the January peak. Will the relationship between black gold and the general market give us more clues about future moves?

Crude Oil’s Technical Picture

Let’s examine the technical picture of the commodity (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

This was going to be part of an NFTRH update, but I decided to make it public, as we’ll have plenty of other information to work on this weekend in NFTRH 474 after such an eventful market week.

With all due caveats about the non-stellar gold CoT data (we’ll update in #474) I wanted to note a constructive situation in gold vs. oil, which is a key sector fundamental consideration. Now, there is still a constructive situation in play for nominal crude oil, so take this post for perspective more than anything.

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Commodities

Friday, November 17, 2017

Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Q3 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have spent months adrift, cast off in the long shadow of the Trumphoria stock-market rally.  This vexing consolidation has left a wasteland of popular bearishness.  But once a quarter earnings season arrives, bright fundamental sunlight dispelling the obscuring sentiment fogs.  The major gold miners’ just-reported Q3’17 results prove this sector remains strong fundamentally, and super-undervalued.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

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Commodities

Friday, November 17, 2017

Mystery of Inflation and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

At the September FOMC press conference, Yellen admitted that subdued inflation was a puzzle for the Fed. She said:

“This year, the shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, when none of those factors is operative is more of a mystery, and I will not say that the committee clearly understands what the causes are of that.”

Actually, the chart below shows that inflation has been subdued for years. The last time when the CPI was above the Fed’s 2-percent target (formally set in January 2012) in a decisive and lasting way was in 2011 and at the beginning of 2012.

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Commodities

Friday, November 17, 2017

Crude Oil – Gold Link in November 2017 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In recent weeks, it was hard to avoid the topic of crude oil, turning on the TV or opening a newspaper. Developments in the Middle East, escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the upcoming meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC ministers as well as the Baker Hughes reports, crude oil and its products inventories were mainly in the interest of investors.

Since our last Oil Investment Update, light crude extended gains and hit fresh 2017 highs. Black gold’s rally, which began in early October, has been mainly driven by growing indications that the crude market was finally starting to rebalance and hopes that the OPEC cuts agreement would be extended beyond March 2018.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Gold’s Long-term Analogies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

A daily rally in gold, daily decline, daily turnaround and other daily price developments are both interesting and dangerous. Interesting, because nothing is as exciting as a big intraday move. Dangerous, because they can make one too emotional about a given trading position and lose the focus on the big picture (forgetting about the forest by focusing on individual trees). In today’s analysis, we feature two analogies to the previous situations in gold which should make it clearer what’s likely to be seen in the coming months, even if a lot of daily price swings in both directions are about to be seen shortly.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Store Precious Metals Yourself (Hint: It’s More Than The Risk Of Theft) / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Olivier Garret : There’s nothing like holding a gold coin in the palm of your hand. So it’s not surprising that many investors prefer to store precious metals at home or somewhere nearby.

But is it worth the trouble?

While I agree that having some precious metals stored safely at home may benefit you in the event of a major crisis paralyzing the financial system, that should amount only to a small portion of your holdings.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Did The Fed’s Alan Greenspan Admit Gold Is Being Manipulated? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

Every now and then I see another analyst publicly claim that the gold market is being manipulated. And, the reason they come to that conclusion is because the market moved in way “they did not expect.”

Now, for those of us who are thinking people, we clearly see the issue with such a perspective. Why is it “manipulation” when an analyst is not able to recognize their own limitations?

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

These Headlines Say Gold is Building a Base for Something Big / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldSilver

It may be frustrating to watch the gold price remain dormant as stock markets continue to push higher. But while cryptos and Trump grab a lot of the headlines, you might be surprised to know there are significant forces behind the scenes that signal the gold market is not only strong but suggest something big is coming.

Check out these reports from the last 30 days and see what conclusion you’d draw…

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Is Peak Permian Only 3 Years Away? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The world’s hottest shale basin, the Permian, is leading the second U.S. wave of tight oil production growth and will continue to do so for years to come, all analysts say.   

However, signs have started to emerge that the relentless intensification of drilling leads to diminishing returns, Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in an article this week. Pumping twice as much sand as usual into Permian wells and drilling longer laterals doesn’t deliver commensurate volumes of oil, Flowers notes.

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