Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, November 14, 2021
Silver Previous Trend Forecast Recap / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last in-depth Silver analysis:
29th Jan 2020 - Silver Price Trend Forecast 2020
Initially I am expecting a very volatile trading range between a low of $16.50 to a high of $19 for the next 3 months or so, following which the Silver price 'should' respond to a Gold price rally and follow the yellow metal higher. The trends not going to be pretty but I expect Silver to trade above $20, and likely reach a peak near $21 later in the year as the forecast graph illustrates.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Inflation to the Moon - Gold Wears a Space Suit! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation rears its ugly head, surging at the fastest pace since 1990. The yellow metal has finally reacted as befits an inflation hedge: went up.Do you know what ambivalence is? It is a state of having two opposing feelings at the same time –this is exactly how I feel now. Why? Well, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that consumer inflation surged in October, which is something I hate because it lowers the purchasing power of money, deteriorating the financial situation of most people, especially the poorest and the least educated who don’t know how to protect against rising prices.
On the other hand, I feel satisfaction, as it turned out that I was right in claiming that high inflation would be more persistent than the pundits claimed. After the September report on inflation, I wrote: “I’m afraid that consumer inflation could increase even further in the near future”. Sieron vs. Powell: 1:0!
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Gold Price Reaches 15-Month Flag Apex / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since the start of the COVID-19 virus event, Gold has rallied more than +26% to reach highs near $2090 on August 7, 2020. Yet, over the past 15 months, Gold has been trailing downward in a sideways price pattern. This price rotation has set up a very broad Pennant/Flag formation in Gold that has recently reached the APEX of the Flag setup.
This is very important for two reasons. First, as the global central banks begin to plan and prepare for more normalized monetary policy, and address credit excesses and inflationary price concerns, the advantages of Gold as a hedging instrument become more valuable. Secondarily, after a massive rise in asset prices and an even bigger global attempt to stimulate the economy after the COVID-19 virus event, the world has never been in this scenario. Near-zero interest rates, excessive amounts of money and credit throughout the world, asset prices showing near hyper-inflation trends, and the global central banks taking very little action to address any future economic concerns.
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Friday, November 12, 2021
How Strange! Gold Rises on Strong Payrolls! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
US economy added 531,000 jobs in October, surpassing expectations. Gold reacted… in a bullish way, and jumped above $1,800!The October nonfarm payrolls came surprisingly strong. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added 531,000 jobs last month, much above the expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 450,000 added jobs). So, it’s a nice change from the last two disappointing reports. What’s more, the August and September numbers were significantly revised up – by 235,000 combined. Let’s keep in mind that we also have the additions of 1,091,000 in July and 366,000 in August (after an upward revision).
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Thursday, November 11, 2021
Gold Breakout Confirmed... Almost / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Gold finished solidly above the $1,800/oz level on Friday, marking the yellow metal’s best weekly close since late August. More importantly, gold may be breaking out of a larger consolidation pattern that has been in force since prices peaked in August of last year.
Prices edged above the descending triangle line – although perhaps not convincingly so.
If the breakout is real, then we should see a follow-through advance this week to confirm it.
Interpreting chart patterns is more of an art than a science. Any given technical setup, whether bullish or bearish in appearance, can fail.
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Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Calling the Precious Metals Bull / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 paused to a degree, but bonds didn‘t – we‘re far from a peak. That though doesn‘t mean a brief correction (having a proper look at the chart, sideways consolidation not reaching more than a precious couple of percentage points down) won‘t arrive still this month. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps.
And when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged.
For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating.
Friday, November 05, 2021
Gold, Silver, and Miners Just Can’t Jump / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Let’s face it, the metals are not having an easy time breaking out. Short-term rallies end up going nowhere and bearish signs are still in abundance.
Yesterday’s session was once again quite informative, and so is today’s pre-market trading. In yesterday’s analysis, I emphasized the importance of the relative weakness that we just saw in mining stocks, so let’s start with taking a look at what mining stocks did yesterday.
Friday, November 05, 2021
Where is Crude Oil Price Headed? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
With the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, oil looks to be in a corrective phase, as pressure is on for more crude. Are we looking at bearish winds ahead?
Crude oil prices have started their corrective wave, as we are approaching the monthly OPEC+ group meeting on Thursday, with some market participants now considering the eventuality of a larger-than-expected rise in production.
Thursday, November 04, 2021
Global Precious Metals Market Dirty Tricks for Beginners / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Although precious metals are still relatively under-owned and unloved, retail investors have been pouring into the metals markets since early last year.
Lots of newer investors have high hopes about where prices are headed in the near term. Even seasoned metals investors are optimistic about the current set-up for higher prices.
The difference is that seasoned investors also know they may not get what they expect.
When it comes to the metals markets, fundamentals don’t always matter in the short run. Successful bullion investing is about persevering when the market does the opposite of what you anticipate, and that happens a lot.
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Thursday, November 04, 2021
What Does November Hold for the Gold Miners? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As a new month begins, the downtrend in the GDX and GDXJ should resume. When will a new buying opportunity finally present itself?
Let’s compare the behavior of the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF. Regarding the former, the GDX ETF reversed sharply after reaching its 200-day moving average and a confluence of bearish indicators signaled a similar outcome. For context, I wrote on Oct. 25:
Small breakout mirrors what we witnessed during the senior miners’ downtrend in late 2020/early 2021. Moreover, when the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) approached 70 (overbought conditions) back then, the highs were in (or near) and sharp reversals followed.
Furthermore, after a sharp intraday reversal materialized on Oct. 22, the about-face is similar to the major reversal that we witnessed in early August. On top of that, with the GDX ETF’s stochastic indicator also screaming overbought conditions, the senior miners are likely to move lower sooner rather than later.
Wednesday, November 03, 2021
Worried Foreign Central Banks Boost Gold Reserves / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
After sitting on the sidelines for much of last year, central bank appetite for gold has resumed, in part due to inflationary pressures globally along with disruptions in the energy market.
Russia recently reached a milestone record for its gold reserves, now ranking fifth in the world for the size of its holdings.
Russia now holds well over 20% of its reserves in gold! This represents nearly 2,300 tons of gold now held by the totalitarian nation, and that figure is likely to increase substantially in the years ahead.
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Sunday, October 31, 2021
The Bank of Canada Ends QE, Plunging Gold Prices in CAD / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
So, QE ended (so far in Canada, but the Fed will follow suit) and the termination plunged gold prices in Canadian dollars. Will this repeat globally?
Finally! Yesterday (October 27, 2021), one central bank ended its quantitative easing program after gradually reducing the pace of asset purchases earlier this year. Don’t panic though - it wasn’t the Fed, nor the ECB, nor the Bank of Japan. It was the Bank of Canada. As we can read in the monetary policy statement:
In light of the progress made in the economic recovery, the Governing Council has decided to end quantitative easing and keep its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds roughly constant.
Friday, October 29, 2021
Shrinking US Crude Reserves Might Confirm the Trend Now! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Oil prices rose again on Tuesday, approaching multi-year highs amid concerns over steadily shrinking US crude reserves.
Fundamental Analysis
U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock:
Friday, October 29, 2021
The History of Gold’s Pavlovian Narrative / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger delves into the Federal Reserve's actions going back decades that affect the price of gold.
One of the benefits (or luxuries) of being removed from the commuting rat-race of my earlier life is the ability to devote large swaths of free time to reading – to the acquisition of either new sources of knowledge or new frameworks of opinion, neither of which can be trusted but both of which may be useful.
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Tuesday, October 26, 2021
Food Prices & Farm Inputs Getting Hard to Stomach / Commodities / Food Crisis
By: Richard_Mills
Thanksgiving is a time to appreciate the food on our tables, but that probably isn’t stopping a lot of people from grumbling about how expensive the turkey and all the fixings have become.
According to Statistics Canada, food prices are up 2.5% over the past year, but that may be underestimating the impact of inflation. New research from Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab, quoted by BNN Bloomberg, shows that food inflation in Canada is closer to 5%, well above the normal 1-2%.
Among food categories, meat prices stand out as rising the most, with Stats Canada noting a 10% increase for these products over the past six months. Nearly half of Canadians, 49%, say they have reduced their purchases of Alberta meat, while a majority of consumers acknowledge cutting back on it since the start of the year. The higher number of vegetarians may be due to economic reasons as much as concerns over animal cruelty.
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Monday, October 25, 2021
S&P 500 Stirs the Gold Pot / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With the S&P 500 back at its all-time highs, gold stopped lagging behind. However, how long can this unsustainable growth last?
The FOMO Rally
While the S&P 500 has demonstrated a resounding ability to shake off bad news, an epic divergence has developed between positioning and economic expectations. And while ‘fear of missing out’ (FOMO) keeps sentiment near the high-end of its range, Q3 DP growth is projected near the low-end of its range.
For example, while the Atlanta Fed’s third-quarter GDP growth estimate was north of 5% in early September, the bank reduced the estimate to 1.3% on Oct. 5. Moreover, with the outlook even worse now, the Atlanta Fed cut its Q3 GDP growth estimate to 0.5% on Oct. 19.
Sunday, October 24, 2021
To Be or Not to Be: How the Evergrande Crisis Can Affect Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Evergrande is on the brink of bankruptcy. Will gold prices collapse together with the real estate developer or benefit from its default?Generals are always prepared to fight the last war, while economists are always prepared to fight the last recession. But what if the next economic crisis doesn’t start in the US financial sector, but in China’s real estate?
Naturally, I refer to Evergrande, a Chinese developer with total liabilities of more than $300 billion — around 2% of China’s GDP! A default of one of China’s largest and most indebted companies could entail significant repercussions for the global economy.
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Saturday, October 23, 2021
Gold Mining Stocks Q3 2021 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ latest quarterly earnings season will soon get underway, with their full Q3’21 results due out by mid-November. These fundamental reports are invaluable to traders, revealing how companies are actually faring operationally and financially. Despite Fed-tightening fears hammering gold and gold stocks last quarter, the miners are likely to collectively report outstanding results further lowering their valuations.
After a rough stretch technically this past summer, gold-stock sentiment remains down in the dumps. This battered sector has few bulls left, with the vast majority of speculators and investors either ignoring the gold miners or despising them. This overwhelmingly-bearish psychology resulted from a sharp gold-stock selloff between early June to late September. That trying time tested the mettle of contrarian traders.
The gold miners weren’t market pariahs earlier this year. Their leading sector benchmark, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF, powered 28.4% higher in just 2.5 months between early March to mid-May. That solid young upleg was starting to win some converts, with herd sentiment shifting back towards bullish. Unfortunately that promising start was torpedoed by extreme gold-futures selling on Fed-tightening fears.
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Saturday, October 23, 2021
Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
You see, there is all this noise out there. It comes mostly from inflationists touting gold in the same breath as copper, as oil, and as commodities of all flavors (and aside from gold and to a degree, silver, those flavors are cyclical).
But you also see, gold is counter-cyclical in its best suit. You see on this monthly chart that gold has been forming its Handle to the bullish Cup ever since the inflation trades came to the fore in the summer of 2020. Therefore, you see that those touting gold and inflation together have been wrong for over a year now (and counting).
For those dealing in reality instead of dogma, gold is a candidate to break the Handle at any time. Then it would be off to the target at 3000+ over the course of a year or more. But reality holds another option as well, and that is to finish the Handle making lower.
So why not tune out the perma-pompoms in real time, realize that the thing is bullish, but the trigger is either coming sooner or later? We are doing that more focused work in NFTRH and associated updates every week and will be on the spot when the proper signals engage.
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Friday, October 22, 2021
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Kicking the can down the road is the new national pastime. Every time the government’s bills come due, officials at the Treasury Department find creative ways of paying them with money they don’t have.
One measure of just how overextended the United States has become financially is the debt to GDP ratio. For most of the country’s history, excluding temporary wartime blips, net general government debt tended to be less than 50% of the economy.
As recently as the early 1970s, debt as a percentage of GDP came in at under 25%. By the early 1980s, it grew to over 30% and fiscal hawks became concerned. In the 1990s, it climbed to over 40% and concern started morphing into alarm.
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