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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Currencies

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

What is Trump's US Dollar Policy? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Michael_Pento

The United States Treasury Department has supported a strong dollar policy since its inception in 1789. Period. There were no qualifications or equivocations with that stance, especially since the ascendance of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. That's why it was so highly unusual when the newly confirmed Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, uttered this quote recently: "From time to time an excessively strong dollar could have a negative short-term effect on the economy."

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Currencies

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Bitcoin Price Dancing around $1,000 / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: no speculative positions.

Needham & Co., an investment firm, has issued a new report on the potential success of three prospective Bitcoin ETF. In the report, we read:

Given elevated interest in the bitcoin ETFs that are going through the regulatory approval process we're revisting the subject with a deeper dive to take a look at the factors that may affect approval, differences between the three filings, market indicators of approval odds, and the effect of approval/disapproval on price. Overall, we maintain our estimates that the likelihood of approval is less than 25% but that, if it were approved, such an ETF would be extremely successful. That said, there are some market indicators that seem to suggest higher odds than our own estimates. Ultimately, while we don't see any specific reason to disapprove the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, we think the SEC is likely to disapprove out of an abundance of caution around bitcoin itself (as opposed to something specific to the filing).

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Currencies

Monday, February 13, 2017

US Dollar: 'Rumors of My Death are Greatly Exaggerated' / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today I would like to update the US dollar as its been testing critical support since breaking out from the nearly 2 year horizontal trading range in early November of last year. The daily line chart shows there was a nice clean backtest about a month later to the top rail which looked like breaking out and backtesting process was complete. After a short rally and making a higher high the US dollar declined once more to the top rail causing a lot of uncertainty for many traders. After a slight breach of the top rail the US dollar is now trading back above that very important trendline. So far at this point there is nothing to conclude the bull market that started in 2011 is over at least accordingly to the daily line chart.

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Currencies

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Bitcoin Making Waves In China and Japan / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

As we’ve said here many times, bitcoin is not a revolution in money and banking.  A revolution means returning to where you came from. Instead, bitcoin is an evolution in money and banking.

It changes the game so massively that the entire financial, monetary and political systems have no idea how to deal with it. For this reason, nearly every country in the world has a different “policy” when it comes to bitcoin.

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Currencies

Friday, February 10, 2017

USD and Gold Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar

By: SurfCity

Just a quick update on the USD and Gold. Todays move by the USD finally seemed to put a pause in the relentless uptrend by Gold and the Miners. I have the USD on day 6 now in what is very clearly a new short term Trading Cycle.

My cycle analysis indicates that this USD Trading Cycle uptrend should top out sometime in the next two days if it is to be a Left Translated cycle that fails. If it does not, this would be an early warning that the USD may have also found its longer term Intermediate Cycle Low as well.

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Currencies

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Bullish Case for GBP/JPY / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: MarketsToday

Looking back we see that the GBPJPY moved into a 16-month downtrend following the 195.87 peak reached in June 2015. Support was eventually found at 124.59 four months ago. It was promptly followed by a sharp nine-week rally up into 148.45 resistance (most recent peak). That price area is where both support and resistance were seen back in 2013, at resistance of the 55-week exponential moving average (ema), and at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the internal downtrend (coming off the 168.08 lower swing high).

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Currencies

Wednesday, February 08, 2017

USD Rolling Over, SPX Weakening / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

USD futures are fading this morning as a smaller overnight retracement failed to exceed yesterday’s high at 100.69.

ZeroHedge reports, “We're going to need another Fed speaker...

Harker comments overnight on March being live spiked the Dollar...

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Currencies

Wednesday, February 08, 2017

What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: John_Mauldin

John Grandits : A key pillar of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, and now policy formation, is an “America First” approach. So far, this has entailed much discussion around negotiating more favorable trade deals, withdrawing from possible participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, citing potential currency manipulators, and construction of a wall along the Mexican border, to name a few.

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Currencies

Wednesday, February 08, 2017

U.S. Dollar Exorbitant Privilege At Risk?! / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Axel_Merk

If the road to hell is paved with good intentions, American's exorbitant privilege might be at risk with broad implications for the U.S. dollar and investors' portfolios. Let me explain.

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Currencies

Wednesday, February 08, 2017

US Dollar Breaks below USD100 with Rising Yields, is Wholesale US Treasury Dump Coming? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: John_Lee

The US Dollar Index has fallen below the psychological 100 level, while 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields remain above multi-year support levels. This is despite the Federal Open Market Committee keeping the Federal Funds rate steady at 0.75% on Feb 1, 2017.

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Currencies

Sunday, February 05, 2017

Why Trump’s Economic Justice Warriors Will Crash The US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Jeff_Berwick

For the last eight years we’ve seen the rise of the Social Justice Warriors (SJW’s), as they had lobbied their man, Obama, for the political power required to direct the force of government in the name of their own peculiarly relativist brand of “social justice.”

While they are still busy demonstrating the violent soul of what is inherent in all brands of statism by breaking storefront windows (masked), under the Trump epoch a new type of statist “warrior” has emerged… let’s call them the Economic Justice Warriors (EJW’s).

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Currencies

Sunday, February 05, 2017

US Dollar Bulls Surrender? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

The US dollar has now closed lower for 6 weeks in a row which is testing the patience of the bulls. This week the price action cracked the top rail of the horizontal trading range which is a negative, but not confirmation yet the trend has reversed down. There are several more layers of support that will need to be hit before I throw up the white flag and surrender to the bears.

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Currencies

Friday, February 03, 2017

Forex Trading Alert: USD Index at Fresh Lows / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Nadia_Simmons

Earlier today, the USD Index extended losses against the basket of the major currencies as yesterday's Fed statement didn't give clear signal on the timing of its next rate hike. How did this drop affect the technical picture of EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD?

In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified – summary:

EUR/USD: none
GBP/USD: none
USD/JPY: none
USD/CAD: none
USD/CHF: none
AUD/USD: none

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Currencies

Friday, February 03, 2017

The US Dollar is About to Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Graham_Summers

The $USD is about to collapse.

This is not fear mongering, nor is it just a bold statement. The $USD has peaked and is about to breakdown in a BIG way.

See for yourself, the greenback has taken out critical support. The spike higher that occurred starting election night is looking more and more like a bullish headfake.

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Currencies

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

EURUSD Forex Trading Strategy Simplifies a Choppy Market / Currencies / Euro

By: Nicholas_Kitonyi

The forex market accounts for trillions worth of transactions on a daily basis, which makes it one of the most liquid markets to participate in. The EUR/USD currency pair accounts for most of those transactions but that does not make the pair immune to the rigorous volatility experienced amongst the exotic currency pairs.

Due to less liquidity, currency markets involving less popular pairs tend to be more volatile than their more popular counterparts. However, as demonstrated in the chart below, the EUR/USD pair, which is one of the most popular currency pairs in the Forex market has been very choppy of late. At least, when you look at it from the perspective of the hourly chart.
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Currencies

Monday, January 30, 2017

US Dollar Chartathon / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

In this Weekend Report I'm going to show you some updated charts on the US dollar which has been in a bull market since the low in 2011. It's hard for a lot of investors to admit, but until the charts change the bull market continues. A bull market is characterized by a series of consolidation patterns forming one top of the next, until the last pattern is a reversal pattern which reverses the bull trend. The old expression, the trend is your friend, also applies to the US dollar as well. Until the US dollar negates the series of higher highs and higher lows on an intermediate term basis, we have to assume the bull market is in tact.

Lets start by looking at a daily line chart for the US dollar which shows the horizontal trading range beginning back in March of 2015. The breakout topside of the horizontal trading range took place a little over 2 months ago in November of last year. After the initial breakout there was the initial backtest which could have been the beginning of the next impulse move up, but the US dollar stalled out a month later and is currently backtesting the top rail around the 100 area again.

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Currencies

Friday, January 27, 2017

Lala Land FX Assumptions / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Ashraf_Laidi

The notion that Trump's planned protectionist measures (tariffs and border adjustment tax) will be USD-positive is founded on an unrealistic world - where Mexico, China and other US trading partners would just sit back and watch without any retaliatory action. We're not in the 1980s or 1990s when US trading partners operated in a closed world, unaccountable to any world free trade bodies.

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Currencies

Friday, January 27, 2017

Going Long The Euro Could Be The Trade Of 2017 / Currencies / Euro

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : For a long time now I've held the theory that you have to be completely insane to be a successful investor. Like, right out of your tree.

Let me put it this way: Just a few weeks ago we were all sure, 100% positive that the US dollar would continue to appreciate against the euro, because the Fed was more hawkish, and the ECB was going to have negative rates and QE forever.

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Currencies

Friday, January 27, 2017

Bitcoin Price Above Resistance / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: no speculative positions.
The recent drop in Bitcoin volatility is widely attributed to developments in China. On Bloomberg, we read:

Bitcoin's volatility has plunged since China banned leveraged trading and forced exchanges to charge fees.

Perhaps more meaningfully, trading volume has plunged 98 percent compared with the first days of 2017, according to data from bitcoinity.org. On Jan. 1, when bitcoin traded at $1,012.3, 4.8 million coins exchanged hands. On Wednesday, only 80,092 did. Sure, many Chinese investors, who still represent the lion's share of trading, are away from their desks because of the Lunar New Year. Still, the speed and pattern of the decline make it hard not to draw a line to the regulatory action.

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Currencies

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Blockchain – Central Banks Banking On It As Debase Currency / Currencies / BlockChain

By: GoldCore

Blockchain – Central Banks Banking On Blockchain

“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust …”

Satoshi Nakamoto (Unknown person or persons who designed bitcoin and created its original reference implementation, Bitcoin Core)

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