Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, August 12, 2011
U.S. Back in Deflation; Inflation Scare Ends; Hyperinflationists Wrong Twice Over / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Hyperinflationits have now blown it twice. First, they insisted hyperinflation would happen before deflation. They were wrong. Then, during the QE2 inspired equities and commodities ramp, they said the same thing. They were wrong again.
Prior to the Great Financial Crisis I had a bet with "Heli-Ben", a staunch hyperinflationist who insisted we would hyperinflation before deflation. I won the bet but have not yet received my prize, a "crying towel" from "Heli-Ben".
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Double Dip Recession Facts and Economic Forecasts / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Asha_Bangalore
There is a growing fear that the U.S. economy is likely to experience another recession or a double dip in the quarters ahead. Robert Hall, prior Chairman of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), refers to a double dip as a long recession marked by a brief period of economic growth. He explains further that during a double dip “activity might rise for a period, but not far enough to complete a cycle, then fall again, and finally rise above its original level, only then completing the cycle." The U.S. has not experienced such an event in the post-1950 period (see Chart 1).
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Falling Oil Prices Will Stimulate Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
As shown in Chart 6, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $81.31 on August 8, the lowest price since November 23, 2010. Some talking heads on the cable financial news channels will tell you that this decline in oil prices could be the catalyst for stronger growth in consumer spending in the coming months. Could be, but might not be. You see, it all depends on why the price of crude oil has been falling since late April. If the price of crude is falling because there has been an increase in the supply of crude oil, then yes, this decline in the price of crude is positive for consumer spending and economic growth in general. But, if the decline in the price of crude is due to a decrease in the demand for crude oil, then the decline in the price of crude oil is symptomatic of weakening global economic growth.
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Waiting for an Inverted Yield Curve to Signal an Imminent Recession? / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Don’t hold your breath. As Chart 1 shows, moving from a positive spread between the yield on the Treasury 10-year security and the fed funds rate has more often than not in the past 55 years signaled the commencement of a recession on the near-term horizon. There have been a few miscues – instances when a recession occurred without the spread turning negative prior to the onset of the recession and some instances when the spread turned negative but a recession did not ensue. So, like so many other leading indicators, the negative-spread recession indicator is not foolproof.
Sunday, August 07, 2011
The Economics of US Healthcare, a Giant Ponzi Scheme? / Economics / Healthcare Sector
By: MISES
Gilbert G. Berdine writes: According to the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), national health expenditures were $2.5 trillion in 2009, or $8,086 per person. The usual critique of US healthcare discusses how the money is spent and argues that it could be better spent in other ways.
I will not discuss how the money is spent, because value is subjective. Instead, I will show that the United States cannot afford what it spends, and, as a result, the US healthcare system is a credit-induced bubble.
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Sunday, August 07, 2011
The Stock Market Has Spoken: Economic Austerity Is Bad for Business / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Ellen_Brown
It used to be that when the Fed Chairman spoke, the market listened; but the Chairman has lost his mystique. Now when the market speaks, politicians listen. Hopefully they heard what the market just said: government cutbacks are bad for business. The government needs to spend more, not less. Fortunately, there are viable ways to do this while still balancing the budget.
Sunday, August 07, 2011
U.S. Yellow Fever Economy, Problem of Massive Debt / Economics / US Debt
By: Gary_North
Financial columnists of the sky-is-sagging perspective have searched for an accurate metaphor to describe the current economy. We have all failed.
"A slow-motion train wreck" doesn't work, because train wrecks as bad as what we are facing are high-speed.
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Sunday, August 07, 2011
Emerging Markets Still Undervalued, Global Capital Shift Is Accelerating / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: John_Mauldin
As will be clear below, I had finished an earlier version of this week's e-letter, but the events of the last few minutes require a few paragraphs. As I write at the end of the letter, Bloomberg kept their satellite truck here in Maine, as they had got advance warning of the downgrade by S&P of US debt and wanted to interview a number of the economists here, including your humble analyst. I can't rewrite the letter at this late hour, but will send you additional comments on Monday. And you can go to www.bloomberg.com and see everyone's remarks, including mine. It will be there somewhere, they promise me.
Sunday, August 07, 2011
Debt And The Economic Degrowth Frontier / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Andrew_McKillop
WELL KNOWN LIMITS
There are basically two choices: degrowth by choice - or forced by uncontrolled debt growth finally becoming uncontrollable, and inevitably destroying economic growth.
The opposite "hopeful paradigm" is well known: the so-called "growth economy" is able to profit from rising amounts of debt relative to GDP for a long way up the curve. This is sure, but the single-minded pursuit of growth pushes this mindless quest over the threshold into forced degrowth, when debt soars beyond well known thresholds.
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Friday, August 05, 2011
Mass Layoffs, Robots, Paints Dismal U.S. Jobs Siutation / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
A good jobs report on Friday (if we get one) is now meaningless. Looking ahead, the jobs situation is bleak globally, not just in the US. Here is supporting evidence for my statement.
Friday, August 05, 2011
U.S. Jobless Claims Holding At Elevated Level / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 1,000 to 400,000 for the week ended July 30. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, fell 10,000 to 3.73 million. Initial jobless claims have ranged between 412,000 and 428,000 for three straight months. The main message is that firms are not hiring at a robust clip.
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
A Double Dip Recession? How Do We Protect Ourselves / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: George_Maniere
Today I am going to do something really amazing. I am going to tell you that in my opinion the U.S. economy has not entered a second recession; it never came out of the first one. Well, before you professional economists start writing me that the Webster’s definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth I will simply say for who? Indeed there are many Americans who have been so economically ravaged by this crisis that they have not lived through a recession - they have endured a depression. A Gallup poll that was released in April (when the DOW was 800 points higher than today’s close) said that 29% of the people polled didn’t care what the definition of a recession was. They said they were in a depression. Add to that, another 26% polled said that they felt they had never come out of the original recession.
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
US Manufacturing Indicative of Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The double dip is one of the worst phenomena of an on-going recession. When an economy double dips, the losers of the first dip who were confident enough to enter into a small recovery are wiped out, thus setting the course for a very long second leg in an economic crisis.
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Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Bill Gross "we are at a tipping point for another recession" / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Bloomberg
Bill Gross spoke to Bloomberg Television’s Carol Massar this afternoon about the debt-ceiling debate and the U.S. economy.
Gross said that the debt-ceiling deal is a “Republican Tea Party victory” and that “we are at a tipping point” in terms of a recession. Excerpts from the interview are below, courtesy of Bloomberg Television.
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Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Five Things You Need to Know About the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: At any point during the recent negotiations in Washington over the debt, did you seriously think for even a second that the U.S. was about to default?
Of course, in time the U.S. government (along with many others) will default. However, they are highly unlikely to do so by decree or even through the sort of legislative inaction recently on display. Rather, it will come about through the time-honored tradition of screwing debtors via the slow-roasting method of monetary inflation.
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Tuesday, August 02, 2011
U.S. Economic Fundamentals Are More Important, Debt-Ceiling Deal is an Induced Necessity / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
On July 31, President Obama, Senator Reid, and House Speaker Boehner shook hands on a deal that will be voted on later today. The deal negotiated would lead to a total reduction of the budget deficit by $2.1 trillion during the 2012-2021 period. It also includes raising the debt ceiling between $2.1 trillion and $2.4 trillion by the final months of 2012. The timing and magnitude of the spending cuts as indicated in Table 3 of the latest scoring from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO's assessment of new legislation)point to discretionary spending cuts in the entire 2012-2021 period. Lower federal government outlays in 2012 in a fragile economic environment are a setback to economic growth.
Tuesday, August 02, 2011
U.S. Recession is "Real Risk" According to Dow Jones ESI Indicator / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
Further adding to the evidence of a huge US slowdown, a Dow Jones Sentiment Indicator says Return to a Recession is a Real Risk
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Monday, August 01, 2011
The Next Down Leg of the U.S. Housing Bear Market has Begun / Economics / US Housing
By: Clif_Droke
Now that the latest round of quantitative easing (QE) has ended, it's time to take stock of whether inflation or deflation is likely to gain the upper hand going forward.
The Fed's monetary stimulus efforts of the last three years have done nothing to help what is arguably the biggest symptom of long-term deflation, namely the housing market. It's important to recall that the final "hard down" portion of the 60-year cycle of inflation/deflation cycle began with a collapse of real estate prices. The real estate bear market has been the chief evidence of deflation in the U.S. for the housing market prior to the crash represented the biggest form of savings for most Americans.
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Monday, August 01, 2011
The Source of Profits in the Business of Financial Speculation / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Aftab_Singh
There is scarcely an endeavor awash with more debate, allure, dogma and contempt than the business of financial speculation. The entire investment community is often derided as ‘just a bunch of gamblers’, the most successful speculators are often dismissed as ‘lucky’ and the very pursuit has even been likened to prancing around a fire with two horns on one’s temples. Naturally, we beg to differ. Here, I refute some of these commonly held misconceptions and outline our perception of the rudimentary source of consistent speculative gains.
Monday, August 01, 2011
The Great Correction: 4 Years…and Counting…Still No Economic Recovery in Sight / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bill_Bonner
I’m glad to be the last speaker. Nobody can come after me and tell you why I’m wrong about everything. Instead, I get to tell you why the other speakers were numbskulls. Besides, we all have a tendency to be most influenced by the last person we talk to. Or at least I do.