Election Forecast 2015 - Debates Boost Labour Into Opinion Polls Seats Lead

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Mar 30, 2015 - 05:39 AM GMT

The Conservatives instant boost of Thursday night (26th March) evaporated within hours as several days on the main beneficiary where the opinion polls are concerned is Labour who have now once more flip flopped into the lead, though most still put both parties virtually neck and neck as clearly the people of Britain are indicating they do not trust either party to govern on their own, perhaps because they have become too similar, and therefore it looks like being a choice between a continuation of the Conservative - Lib Dem Coalition or an Labour - SNP Axis.

For a facts check analysis of David Cameron's debate interview see the following video and accompanying article.

29 Mar 2015 - David Cameron Election 2015 Debate Facts Check - Employment, Immigration, Debt & Deficit

(The facts check analysis of Ed Milliband's debate will be posted once complete).

The following is a list of the current state of seats forecasts by various popular mostly mainstream media funded election sites that are set against my own forecast of 28th Feb 2015.

	Market Oracle	May2015 .com	Electoralcalculus .co.uk	ElectionForecast .co.uk	The Guardian
	28th Feb	28th Mar	29th Mar	30th Mar	29th Mar
Conservative	296	271	274	282	275
Labour	262	273	287	281	271
SNP	35	55	48	36	53
Lib Dem	30	24	17	27	25
UKIP	5	3	2	1	4
Others	22	22	22	23	22

The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.

May2015.com (New Statesman)

	MO 28th Feb	28th Mar	21st Mar	12th Mar	5th Mar	26th Feb	10th Feb
Conservative	296	271	274	281	255	270	270
Labour	262	273	271	263	283	271	272
SNP	35	55	55	55	55	56	56
Lib Dem	30	24	24	24		26	25
UKIP	5	3	3	4		4	4
Others	22	22	22

Are showing a trend towards an increasing Labour seats lead over the Conservatives, currently putting both parties virtually neck and neck.

Electoralcalculus.co.uk

	MO 28th Feb	29th Mar	22nd Mar	14th Mar	9th Mar	27th Feb	30th Jan
Conservative	296	274	267	262	267	265	265
Labour	262	287	300	301	298	301	297
SNP	35	48	48	46	55	46	50
Lib Dem	30	17	17	17		15	17
UKIP	5	2	1	1		1	1
Others	22	22	22

Are exhibiting a consistent strong bias towards Labour but which is eroding over time.

ElectionForecast.co.uk

	MO 28th Feb	30th Mar	22nd Mar	11th Mar	25th Feb	13th Feb
Conservative	296	282	286	295	284	280
Labour	262	281	276	267	279	283
SNP	35	36	39	42	39	37
Lib Dem	30	27	26	24	25	27
UKIP	5	1	1	1	1	2
Others	22	23	22

After consistently putting the Conservatives in a clear seats lead are now post debates have both parties virtually neck and neck.

The Guardian

	MO 28th Feb	29th Mar	18th Mar	11th Mar	27th Feb	28th Jan
Conservative	296	275	277	279	276	273
Labour	262	271	269	266	271	273
SNP	35	53	53	52	51	49
Lib Dem	30	25	25	27	27	28
UKIP	5	4	4	4	3	5
Others	22	22	22

Continues to maintain a marginal advantage to the Conservatives, currently within an extremely tight 2 swing range.

Analysis

The opinion pollsters are all trending in favour of the Labour party which if the trend continues implies that Labour will be the largest party which is contrary to my expectations for the Tories to lead with at least 296 seats.

Another point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 50-55, against my expectations for just 35.

Conclusion

In my judgement the opinion polls are wrong as they persistently under estimate the number of seats the Conservatives will actually win and that they could even win an outright majority on May 7th as per my long standing analysis of seats vs house prices trend trajectory that painted a picture for a likely probable Conservative general election victory.

16 Dec 2013 - UK General Election Forecast 2015, Who Will Win, Coalition, Conservative or Labour?

The updated election seats trend graph illustrates that the Conservatives are virtually ON TRACK to achieve the forecast outcome for an outright election victory on a majority of about 30 seats which NO ONE, and I mean no serious commentators / analysts has or is currently advocating.

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis that concluded in the following detailed seats per party forecast:

28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win?
28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast delivered to your email in box.

Source and comments -http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50054.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.