Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Focusing on May Cycle Bottom - Jim_Curry
3.Silver, silver, and silver! There’s More Than Silver, People! - P_Radomski_CFA
4.Is the Malaysian Economy a Potemkin Village - Sam_Chee_Kong
5.Stock Market Study Shows Why You Shouldn’t “Sell in May and Go Away” - Troy_Bombardia
6.A Big Stock Market Shock is About to Start - Martin C
7.A Long Term Gold Very Unpopular View - Rambus_Chartology
8.Stock Market “Sell in May and go away” Study When Stocks Are Down YTD - Troy_Bombardia
9.Global Currency RESET Challenge: Ultimate Twist - Jim_Willie_CB
10.The Coming Silver Supply Crunch Is Worse Than You Know - Jeff Clark
Last 7 days
US Majors Flush Out A Major Pivot Low and What’s Next - 18th Jun 18
Cocoa Commodities Trading Analysis - 18th Jun 18
Stock Market Consolidating in an Uptrend - 18th Jun 18
Russell Has Gone Up 7 Weeks in a Row. EXTREMELY Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jun 18
What Happens Next to Stocks when Tech Massively Outperforms Utilities and Consumer Staples - 18th Jun 18
The Trillion Dollar Market You’ve Never Heard Of - 18th Jun 18
The Corruption of Capitalism - 17th Jun 18
North Korea, Trade Wars, Precious Metals and Bitcoin - 17th Jun 18
Climate Change and Fish Stocks – Burning Oxygen! - 17th Jun 18
A $1,180 Ticket to NEW Trading Opportunities, FREE! - 16th Jun 18
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 18
Respite for Bitcoin Traders Might Be Deceptive - 16th Jun 18
The Euro Crashed Yesterday. Bearish for Euro and Bullish for USD - 15th Jun 18
Inflation Trade, in Progress Since Gold Kicked it Off - 15th Jun 18
Can Saudi Arabia Prevent The Next Oil Shock? - 15th Jun 18
The Biggest Online Gambling Companies - 15th Jun 18
Powell's Excess Reserve Change and Gold - 15th Jun 18
Is This a Big Sign of a Big Stock Market Turn? - 15th Jun 18
Will Italy Sink the EU and Boost Gold? - 15th Jun 18
Bumper Crash! Land Rover Discovery Sport vs Audi - 15th Jun 18
Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Pause Before Going Higher? - 14th Jun 18
Is the ECB Ending QE a Good Thing? Markets Think So - 14th Jun 18
Yield Curve Continues to Flatten. A Bullish Sign for the Stock Market - 14th Jun 18
How Online Gambling has Impacted the Economy - 14th Jun 18
Crude Oil Price Targeting $58 ppb Before Finding Support - 14th Jun 18
Stock Market Near Another Top? - 14th Jun 18
Thorpe Park REAL Walking Dead Living Nightmare Zombie Car Park Ride Experience! - 14th Jun 18
More on that Gold and Silver Ratio 'Deviant Conundrum' - 13th Jun 18
Silver Shares? Nobody Cares - 13th Jun 18
What Happens to Stocks, Forex, Commodities, and Bonds When the Fed Hikes Rates - 13th Jun 18
Gold and Silver Price Setting Up for A Sleeper Breakout - 13th Jun 18
Tesla Stock Analysis - 12th Jun 18
What Happens Next to Stocks when Russell Goes up 6 Weeks in a Row - 12th Jun 18
Gold vs. Stocks: Ratios Do Not Imply Correlation - 12th Jun 18
Silver’s Not-so-subtle Outperformance - 12th Jun 18
Why You Should Brace Yourself for Big Financial Changes - 11th Jun 18
Inflation to Skyrocket When Fed Reverts to New QE & Interest Rate Cuts - 11th Jun 18
Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Consolidation? - 11th Jun 18
Study: What Happens Next to Stocks When the Put/Call Ratio is Very Low - 11th Jun 18
G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - 11th Jun 18
SPX Unshackled - 11th Jun 18
When Trump Met Fibonacci And Won - 11th Jun 18
FREE Theme Park Entry with Cadbury's Choc's! Legoland, Alton Towers, Chessington.... - 11th Jun 18
Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - 10th Jun 18
End of the World Stock Market Chart! - 10th Jun 18
All US Homes Are Overvalued - 10th Jun 18
Thorpe Theme Park London Car Park Exit Nightmare - Drivers Beware! - 10th Jun 18
Gold Price Summer Doldrums - 9th Jun 18
How to Prepare for Economic Uncertainty with Gold and Silver - 9th Jun 18
5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse - 9th Jun 18
Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - 9th Jun 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport ECO Mode Real World Driving MPG Fuel Economy - 9th Jun 18
Crude Oil Bullish Weekly Reversal vs. Bearish Monthly Reversal - 8th Jun 18
Fed’s Interest Rate Hike is Short term Bearish for Stocks - 8th Jun 18
The Deviant Conundrum Called Silver - 8th Jun 18
Pleasure Island Theme Park Cleethorpes, Last Day Trip Before it Closed Down - 8th Jun 18
America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - 8th Jun 18
Debt Consolidation Advice: When and Why to Consolidate - 8th Jun 18
Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - 8th Jun 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Election Forecast 2015 - Debates Boost Labour Into Opinion Polls Seats Lead

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Mar 30, 2015 - 05:39 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The Conservatives instant boost of Thursday night (26th March) evaporated within hours as several days on the main beneficiary where the opinion polls are concerned is Labour who have now once more flip flopped into the lead, though most still put both parties virtually neck and neck as clearly the people of Britain are indicating they do not trust either party to govern on their own, perhaps because they have become too similar, and therefore it looks like being a choice between a continuation of the Conservative - Lib Dem Coalition or an Labour - SNP Axis.


For a facts check analysis of David Cameron's debate interview see the following video and accompanying article.

29 Mar 2015 - David Cameron Election 2015 Debate Facts Check - Employment, Immigration, Debt & Deficit

(The facts check analysis of Ed Milliband's debate will be posted once complete).

The following is a list of the current state of seats forecasts by various popular mostly mainstream media funded election sites that are set against my own forecast of 28th Feb 2015.

Market Oracle May2015 .com Electoralcalculus .co.uk ElectionForecast .co.uk The Guardian
 

28th Feb

28th Mar 29th Mar 30th Mar 29th Mar
Conservative 296 271 274 282 275
Labour 262 273 287 281 271
SNP 35 55 48 36 53
Lib Dem 30 24 17 27 25
UKIP 5 3 2 1 4
Others 22 22 22 23 22

The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.

May2015.com (New Statesman)

 

MO 28th Feb

28th Mar 21st Mar 12th Mar 5th Mar 26th Feb 10th Feb
Conservative 296 271 274 281 255 270 270
Labour 262 273 271 263 283 271 272
SNP 35 55 55 55 55 56 56
Lib Dem 30 24 24 24   26 25
UKIP 5 3 3 4   4 4
Others 22 22 22        

Are showing a trend towards an increasing Labour seats lead over the Conservatives, currently putting both parties virtually neck and neck.

Electoralcalculus.co.uk

 

MO 28th Feb

29th Mar 22nd Mar 14th Mar 9th Mar 27th Feb 30th Jan
Conservative 296 274 267 262 267 265 265
Labour 262 287 300 301 298 301 297
SNP 35 48 48 46 55 46 50
Lib Dem 30 17 17 17   15 17
UKIP 5 2 1 1   1 1
Others 22 22 22        

Are exhibiting a consistent strong bias towards Labour but which is eroding over time.

ElectionForecast.co.uk

 

MO 28th Feb

30th Mar 22nd Mar 11th Mar 25th Feb 13th Feb
Conservative 296 282 286 295 284 280
Labour 262 281 276 267 279 283
SNP 35 36 39 42 39 37
Lib Dem 30 27 26 24 25 27
UKIP 5 1 1 1 1 2
Others 22 23 22      

After consistently putting the Conservatives in a clear seats lead are now post debates have both parties virtually neck and neck.

The Guardian

 

MO 28th Feb

29th Mar 18th Mar 11th Mar 27th Feb 28th Jan
Conservative 296 275 277 279 276 273
Labour 262 271 269 266 271 273
SNP 35 53 53 52 51 49
Lib Dem 30 25 25 27 27 28
UKIP 5 4 4 4 3 5
Others 22 22 22      

Continues to maintain a marginal advantage to the Conservatives, currently within an extremely tight 2 swing range.

Analysis

The opinion pollsters are all trending in favour of the Labour party which if the trend continues implies that Labour will be the largest party which is contrary to my expectations for the Tories to lead with at least 296 seats.

Another point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 50-55, against my expectations for just 35.

Conclusion

In my judgement the opinion polls are wrong as they persistently under estimate the number of seats the Conservatives will actually win and that they could even win an outright majority on May 7th as per my long standing analysis of seats vs house prices trend trajectory that painted a picture for a likely probable Conservative general election victory.

16 Dec 2013 - UK General Election Forecast 2015, Who Will Win, Coalition, Conservative or Labour?

The updated election seats trend graph illustrates that the Conservatives are virtually ON TRACK to achieve the forecast outcome for an outright election victory on a majority of about 30 seats which NO ONE, and I mean no serious commentators / analysts has or is currently advocating.

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis that concluded in the following detailed seats per party forecast:

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast delivered to your email in box.

Source and comments -http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50054.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules