Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia and Best AI Tech Stocks ETF - 26th Oct 21
Food Prices & Farm Inputs Getting Hard to Stomach - 26th Oct 21
Has Zillow’s Collapse Signaled A Warning For The Capital Markets? - 26th Oct 21
Dave Antrobus Welcomes Caribou to Award-Winning Group Inc & Co - 26th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate uptrend - 26th Oct 21
Investing in Crypto Currencies With Both Eyes WIDE OPEN! - 25th Oct 21
Is Bitcoin a Better Inflation Hedge Than Gold? - 25th Oct 21
S&P 500 Stirs the Gold Pot - 25th Oct 21
Stock Market Against Bond Market Odds - 25th Oct 21
Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market, FED Balance Sheet - 24th Oct 21
To Be or Not to Be: How the Evergrande Crisis Can Affect Gold Price - 24th Oct 21
During a Market Mania, "no prudent professional is perceived to add value" - 24th Oct 21
Stock Market S&P500 Rallies Above $4400 – May Attempt To Advance To $4750~$4800 - 24th Oct 21
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets - 23rd Oct 21
Easy PC Upgrades with Motherboard Combos - Overclockers UK Unboxing - MB, Memory and Ryzen 5600x CPU - 23rd Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks Q3 2021 - 23rd Oct 21
Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait - 23rd Oct 21
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 - 22nd Oct 21
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments - 22nd Oct 21
Bitcoin $100K or Ethereum $10K—which happens first? - 22nd Oct 21
This Isn’t Sci-Fi: How AI Is About To Disrupt This $11 Trillion Industry - 22nd Oct 21
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts

News_Letter / UK Stock Market Nov 03, 2008 - 02:51 AM GMT

By: NewsLetter

News_Letter November 2nd , 2008 Issue #36 Vol. 2

As per several requests for a stock market analysis update, here is my current summary outlook for the FTSE 100 Stock Market Index. The FTSE 100 index has continued to build a base following the Great Crash of 2008 that took the index to a low of 3665, having since recovered to 4383, up 718 points / 19.5% in just 5 days. Whilst the day to day volatility has presented short-term traders with great opportunities however it has left long-term investors shell shocked.


The Market Oracle Newsletter
November 2nd , 2008            Issue #36 Vol. 2

Commodities Currencies Economics Housing Market Interest Rates Education Personal Finance Stocks / Financials Best Analysis

Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts

Dear Reader,

As per several requests for a stock market analysis update, here is my current summary outlook for the FTSE 100 Stock Market Index. The FTSE 100 index has continued to build a base following the Great Crash of 2008 that took the index to a low of 3665, having since recovered to 4383, up 718 points / 19.5% in just 5 days. Whilst the day to day volatility has presented short-term traders with great opportunities however it has left long-term investors shell shocked.

Whilst the stocks bear market may not be over, as detailed in the my earlier article of 20 Oct 2008 - Stocks Bear Market Long-term Investing Strategy , subsequent price action has triggered the 10% scale in investment rule during the last 10 days of October, more on this in a future update. However the recent price action confirms earlier trend expectations for a rally inline with the seasonal tendency into year end. The expectation is for December to be the stronger month and therefore this implies that November will exhibit further sideways base building trend, which implies that we can expect an imminent trend towards the lower end of the indicated wide trading channel.

The FTSE is expected to exhibit a volatile trend into year end and is targeting a high that looks set to take the FTSE back above 5,000 towards my target of 5,100.

Without listing the usual detailed analysis i.e. trend analysis, macd, elliottwave and seasonal's / cycles, I have summarised my outlook for the FTSE 100 trend in the below graph.

FTSE 100 Stock Market Index Forecast Year End Rally

Trading the Elliott Waves

The Week ahead - UK Interest Rates

The Bank of England is expected to follow Wednesdays U.S. interest rate cut of 0.5% by cutting UK interest rates by 0.5% at next Thursdays MPC meeting, effectively having abandoned the targeting of inflation as I voiced would occur over 6 months ago and have re-iterated on a monthly basis since. The inflation forecast for 2009 is due for completion this week which will elaborate upon both the inflationary and deflationary trends that the UK economy is experiencing that result in a far more complex inflationary outlook than the Bank of England's stance of benign inflation going forward, especially as the Bank of England has repeatedly failed to both control and forecast inflation accurately, which typically results in the repeated mantra of 2% inflation in 2 years time, the fact is that the Bank of England has only hit its CPI inflation target for 5 months out of 5 years, a success rate of just 8%, just as the BOE was forecasting today's inflation would be at 2%, 2 years ago instead of the actual rate of 5.2%.

The current UK interest rate forecast is for rates to be cut from 5% to 3.25% by September 2009. The only risk to the forecast trend is if the Bank of England cuts rates by 1% rather than 0.5% on Thursday in the face of an economy that is falling off the edge of a cliff, however I see this as a very low probability event.

U.S. Dollar Bull Market Update

The analysis of 26th October 2008, similarly called for a strong US Dollar trend into year end with recent price action supporting this view.

Charts Courtesy of Stockcharts.com

Gold Looking to the Long-term as the trend deteriorates

The existing analysis and forecast for Gold of 23rd September 2008, which reversed my earlier bearish stance that had been in force for 6 months, concluded with the expectations that Gold would exhibit a volatile up trend towards $1200 by March 2009. However the impact of a far stronger dollar and yen as the carry trade unwinds has hit Gold hard, knocking it below its subsequent support level of $820, which was soon followed by the even more significant break below $740.

This now puts the forecast in doubt, as turning to the long-term chart does not paint a bright picture. Therefore despite a short-term rally alluded to in my analysis of the US Dollar, the prospects for gold revisiting $1000 let alone rallying to $1200 are increasingly evaporating in the face of the changing long-term trend as exhibited by the price action and break of key support levels of $740 and $720.The only positive at this point is that bull market up trendline at $620 remains in tact therefore technically we are still in a bull market. The next support level below the bull market up trendline is all the way down at $500.

Trading the Elliott Waves

In conclusion the most probable outlook for gold at this point would be to trade in a range of between $930 and $700 into the second half of 2009, that does not preclude ultra-short-term panic driven spikes outside of this range.

For further ongoing analysis and forecast of the financial markets, economies, interest rates and the housing markets , subscribe to our always free newsletter to get the scheduled analysis and forecasts in your inbox on the day of publication.

The American Dream is Reborn

Stock market crashes come and go, recessions come and go, and presidential elections come and go, but history can only be made once, and that which is destined to occur on Tuesday 4th of November with the highly probable election of Barrack Hussain Obama as the next President of the United States and in one fail swoop wipes away the catastrophe of the 8 year Bush administration.

America starts Wednesday 5th November with a clean slate and will likely lift americans out of their increasing despair as the recession starts to bite by giving hope for the future to not only americans but peoples the world over.

Increasingly Barrack Obama will be seen as the right man, at the right place at the right time and inline with the changing demographics of the United States, therefore his presidency will revitalise the country for at least the next 4 years if not longer.

Here's to a bright future for all of mankind from your optimistic analyst.

Nadeem Walayat,
Editor of The Market Oracle

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Attention Editors and Publishers! - You have permission to republish THIS article. Republished articles must include attribution to the author and links back to the http://www.marketoracle.co.uk . Please send an email to republish@marketoracle.co.uk, to include a link to the published article.

For more in depth analysis on the financial markets make sure to visit the Market Oracle on a regular basis.

Subscription

You're receiving this Email because you've registered with our website.

How to Subscribe

Click here to register and get our FREE Newsletter

Forward a Message to Someone [FORWARD]

To update your preferences and access the Newsletter archive [PREFERENCES]

How to Unsubscribe - [UNSUBSCRIBE]

 

About: The Market Oracle Newsletter


The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Newsletter and online publication.
(c) 2005-2008 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - The Market Oracle asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team. Any and all information provided within this newsletter is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided in this newsletter. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. ( Market Oracle Ltd , Registered in England and Wales, Company no 6387055. Registered office: 226 Darnall Road, Sheffield S9 5AN , UK )

Terms of Use | Privacy Policy

Copyright 2008 MarketOracle.co.uk

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in