Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Trump and Coronavirus Pandemic Final US Catastrophe 2021 - 19th Jan 21
How To Find Market Momentum Trades for Explosive Gains - 19th Jan 21
Cryptos: 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity - 19th Jan 21
Who Will NEXT Be Removed from the Internet? - 19th Jan 21
This Small Company Could Revolutionize The Trillion-Dollar Drug Sector - 19th Jan 21
Gold/SPX Ratio and the Gold Stock Case - 18th Jan 21
More Stock Market Speculative Signs, Energy Rebound, Commodities Breakout - 18th Jan 21
Higher Yields Hit Gold Price, But for How Long? - 18th Jan 21
Some Basic Facts About Forex Trading - 18th Jan 21
Custom Build PC 2021 - Ryzen 5950x, RTX 3080, 64gb DDR4 Specs - Scan Computers 3SX Order Day 11 - 17th Jan 21
UK Car MOT Covid-19 Lockdown Extension 2021 - 17th Jan 21
Why Nvidia Is My “Slam Dunk” Stock Investment for the Decade - 16th Jan 21
Three Financial Markets Price Drivers in a Globalized World - 16th Jan 21
Sheffield Turns Coronavirus Tide, Covid-19 Infections Half Rest of England, implies Fast Pandemic Recovery - 16th Jan 21
Covid and Democrat Blue Wave Beats Gold - 15th Jan 21
On Regime Change, Reputations, the Markets, and Gold and Silver - 15th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic Final Catastrophe 2021 - 15th Jan 21
The World’s Next Great Onshore Oil Discovery Could Be Here - 15th Jan 21
UK Coronavirus Final Pandemic Catastrophe 2021 - 14th Jan 21
Here's Why Blind Contrarianism Investing Failed in 2020 - 14th Jan 21
US Yield Curve Relentlessly Steepens, Whilst Gold Price Builds a Handle - 14th Jan 21
NEW UK MOT Extensions or has my Car Plate Been Cloned? - 14th Jan 21
How to Save Money While Decorating Your First House - 14th Jan 21
Car Number Plate Cloned Detective Work - PY16 JXV - 14th Jan 21
Big Oil Missed This, Now It Could Be Worth Billions - 14th Jan 21
Are you a Forex trader who needs a bank account? We have the solution! - 14th Jan 21
Finetero Review – Accurate and Efficient Stock Trading Services? - 14th Jan 21
Gold Price Big Picture Trend Forecast 2021 - 13th Jan 21
Are Covid Lockdowns Bullish or Bearish for Stocks? FTSE 100 in Focus - 13th Jan 21
CONgress "Insurrection" Is Just the Latest False Flag Event from the Globalists - 13th Jan 21
Reflation Trade Heating Up - 13th Jan 21
The Most Important Oil Find Of The Next Decade Could Be Here - 13th Jan 21
Work From Home £10,000 Office Tour – Workspace + Desk Setup 2021 Top Tips - 12th Jan 21
Collect a Bitcoin Dividend Without Owning the King of Cryptos - 12th Jan 21
The BAN Hotlist trade setups show incredible success at the start of 2021, learn how you can too! - 12th Jan 21
Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold – How Much Are They Worth? - 12th Jan 21
SPX Short-term Top Imminent - 12th Jan 21
Is This The Most Exciting Oil Play Of 2021? - 12th Jan 21
Why 2021 Will Be the Year Self-Driving Cars Go Mainstream - 11th Jan 21
Gold Began 2021 With a Bang, Only to Plunge - 11th Jan 21
How to Test Your GPU Temperatures - Running Too Hot - GTX 1650 - Overclockers UK - 11th Jan 21
Life Lesson - The Early Bird Catches the Worm - 11th Jan 21
Precious Metals rally early in 2021 - 11th Jan 21
The Most Exciting Oil Stock For 2021 - 11th Jan 21
Financial Market Forecasts 2021: Navigation in Uncharted Waters - 10th Jan 21
An Urgent Message to All Conservatives, Right-Wingers and Patriots - 10th Jan 21
Despite Signs to the Contrary, Gold Price at or Near Top - 10th Jan 21 -
Ultimate Guide On The 6 Basic Types Of Index Funds - 10th Jan 21
Getting Vaccinated at TESCO - Covid-19 Vaccinations at UK Supermarket Pharmacies and Chemists - 10th Jan 21
Cheers for the 2021 Stock Market and These "Great Expectations" - 9th Jan 21
How to Plan Your Child With Better Education - 9th Jan 21
How To Find The Best Casino - 9th Jan 21
Gold Is Still a Bargain Buy - 8th Jan 20
Gold Price Set to Soar as Hyperinflation Looms - 8th Jan 21
Have Big Dreams? Here's How to Pay for Them - 8th Jan 21
Will the Fed Support Gold Prices in 2021? - 8th Jan 21
Stocks trading strategies for beginners - 8th Jan 21
Who is Buying and Selling Stocks in 2021 - 8th Jan 21
Clap for NHS Heroes 2021 as Incompetent Government Loses Control of Virus Again! - 8th Jan 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Bull Market Trend Forecast

Commodities / Gold & Silver Sep 23, 2008 - 10:38 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLeaving aside the historic credit crisis events of last week to approach the Gold market on a purely technical basis following the breakout above $850 last week. This article therefore is an update to my existing series of analysis of the last 6 months which has been consistently bearish of Gold (articles archive) during which time Gold has witnessed a decline from $1033 in March to $740 earlier this month.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF GOLD

Chart Courtesy of Stockcharts.com

TREND ANALYSIS - The powerful break above the $850 previous high is a clear trigger that signals a significant rally that initially targets the next high of $989. However despite the increase in volatility, gold's most recent action has seen gold retrace to back below $900 in recent hours with last price at $880, which suggests a correction against the powerful rally is underway targeting a retracement to $850 breakout point.

The next resistance level above $989 is the $1033 March high, which given the vicinity to $989 would probably break soon after a break of $989. However Gold resistance at $989, would target a retracement to support at the recent high of $926, with strong support in the range of $926 to $900.

Failure to break $989 - Would see gold continue to develop a sideways pattern in the range of $989 to $800.

Price Targets - The 2006 downtrend witnessed a decline of some 185 points, the subsequent rally to 1033 was up 490 points, or 264%. Gold also made an intermediate high at $850, up 308 from the low or 165% of the 2006 decline. The downtrend from 1033 to 740 represents a decline of 293 points. Therefore the two trend targets above the 1033 high are 1220 and 1516.

MACD - The MACD indicator is heavily oversold after registering a sustained bear trend of 6 months which is similar to the length of the downtrend experienced during 2006.

SEASONAL TREND - The recognized seasonal pattern for gold is for a rally from late July / early August into February. Clearly up until last weeks action Gold has been ignoring the seasonal pattern. However the recent catchup move implies that Gold is now targeting a trend inline with the seasonal pattern starting a month late, therefore this suggests a + / - one month up trend target for a gold of between late Jan to Late March 2009..

ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY - The decline from the March 2008 high clearly indicates a simple ABC wave pattern , each of which were themselves comprised of abc waves. This strongly suggests that the decline was corrective, and therefore implies a 5 wave advance to above the 1033 March high.

Gold Forecast Conclusion - The immediate action suggests an ongoing correction towards $850. Gold has experienced a major significant breakout to the upside which is targeting a volatile up trend to $989, on break of which Gold will target a new all time high of above $1200 by Feb. to March 2009.

A FAILURE to break above $989 and follow the forecast trend would imply a sideways trend in the range of $989 and $800 for probably the next 11 months i.e. until the next bullish seasonal time period approaches.

For more on the developing credit crisis induced mega-trends subscribe to our free weekly newsletter.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 150 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

erick manvers
27 Sep 08, 10:48
Gold Bulls

I fail to see any relevance in using technical analysis on any of the PMs, when the "not for profit" traders are manipulating the prices, particularly gold and silver, on the COMEX futures market.

Prices are manipulated to suit technical standards, analysis only confirms this.

Many "pit men" are commenting that the West is selling paper gold, while the rest of the world is buying real gold.

Guess who the real winners will be!

There have been 5 or 6 articles in the last week, from Putin talking about a gold-backed Russian currency, and selling oil to Europe denominated in Euros (catastrophic for US hegemony), and China, advocating a basket of currencies for international pricing of commodities.

Given this dynamic, any fiat struggling as the US is doing right now, will seek to suppress its main adversary for legitimacy, - Gold.

Yes it's bullish for gold


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules