Category: US Housing
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, April 24, 2020
US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The past few weeks and months have been very interesting to see how the global central banks and governments have attempted to position themselves ahead of this COVID-19 virus event. We continue to suggest that we are just starting the process of navigating through this potentially destructive virus event. We believe the sudden onset of the virus pandemic has sent a shock-wave throughout the globe in terms of expectations and valuations that are, just now, starting to become “real”. Let us try to explain our thinking and how this relates to Real Estate…
Before we continue much further, we suggest taking a moment to review our previous research articles related to the Real Estate market which we predicted the selloff and falling values. Both of these articles were at the top of the Yahoo finance and Google with hundreds of thousands the week we posted them:
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Thursday, March 26, 2020
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this second part of our research into the potential collateral damage, the Covid-19 global virus event may cause in the housing and commercial real estate markets, we want to start by sharing some information that severe cracks are already starting to appear in the entire system. If you have not read PART I – Click Here
Hedge funds and banking institutions may already be feeling the pressure to attempt to contain the losses that are piling up (source: https://www-bloomberg-com).
An extended decline in the global markets will continue to place pressure on institutional financial markets, banks, hedge funds, and other traditional lending and investment firms. Investors will start to pull investment capital away from risk (out of the markets and funds) and may expose some of these larger institutions’ excessive leverage and risk exposure in the process.
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Monday, March 23, 2020
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The current global Covid-19 virus event has upended everyone’s forward expectations related to the US and global economy. Recently, President Trump has announced a 12-month reprieve for homeowners who find themselves without income, or a job, because of the US National Emergency related to the Covid-19 pandemic (source: https://www.npr.org).
All of the recent repositionings of the global markets and forward expectations got us thinking about “what happens after 8 to 12+ months? How will the US and global markets attempt a recovery process – if at all?”. Today, we are going to try to start digging into the data that we believe is relevant to the future in terms of hard asset prices (home and other property) and more liquid asset prices (global financial markets).
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Wednesday, February 05, 2020
There’s More Than One Way To Invest In Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Joshua_Rodriguez
Investing in real estate is a hot topic these days. After all, there are several people that have made a killing doing it. Not to mention, several television shows have popped up over the past few years, outlining the fact that there’s money in the space.
However, the general perception is that in order to invest in real estate, you have to have enough money to buy a house, piece of land, or commercial building. While this is one way to go about an investment in real estate, it’s not the only way to do it. If you’re considering getting into the space, here are a few ways to consider breaking through:
Tuesday, December 03, 2019
About To Relive The 2007 US Housing Market Real Estate Crash Again? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Does history repeat itself? Are price patterns and chart patterns reliable enough to suggest that a global Real Estate market collapse may be set up? What would it take for another Real Estate collapse to take place in today’s global market?
First, let’s start with this simple chart highlighting the “Bear Flag” setup from 2007 and the current 2019 Bear Flag setup. This price pattern was enough of an early warning sign for our research team to run into our offices and tell us of the exciting pattern they just identified regarding Real Estate and what they thought could happen. We listened to them share their ideas and concepts of how we have 11 months to go before the 2020 US Presidential election takes place and how higher risk delinquencies and foreclosures are starting to spike. They suggested the political theater of the global markets and US election cycle will likely distract from the weakening economic cycle which could present enough “smoke and mirrors” to keep investors’ attention away from this potential collapse in the housing market.
Much like a magician attempts to distract you just long enough to pull of their new trick, could the political theater, global economic news cycles and the never-ending battle in Washington DC be just enough of a distraction that skilled traders miss this critical setup? We hope not.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
New Threat To US Housing Market & Stocks From Government Deficits / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
A new era began for us all in September and October of 2019, with the introduction of a new element that is likely to become one of the dominant investment market influences in the 2020s.
What is shown in the orange area of the graph above is something brand new. When we understand why the Federal Reserve abruptly reversed course, created $280 billion in new money in two months and injected it into the financial system - then we can also explore why this new element could still just be getting started and could lead to quite different prices and risks for stocks, bonds and homes in the 2020s, making the new decade entirely different from the 2010s or any previous decade.
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Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Why Americans Will Begin Regretting Buying That New Home / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
There’s one thing that is always true: Most people are not good investors. They buy the most near a long-term top and they sell the most near the bottoms that follow.We have lived in a rare period since World War II wherein housing was first boosted by the first middle class generation (The Bob Hope) who could more broadly afford homes and mortgages, and then by the unprecedented and massive Baby Boom generation’s demand.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Downsizing – What to Watch Out For / Personal_Finance / US Housing
By: Submissions
If you find that your current home is now too big for you, the idea of downsizing can be very appealing. Perhaps your children have moved away and the extra space is making you miss them more. Perhaps you’re starting to struggle with getting up and down the stairs, or with keeping everything clean. Perhaps you just like the idea of having a smaller place in a more convenient location, or of freeing up money so you can live more comfortably. Downsizing isn’t always trouble-free, however. To avoid problems, give some thought to the following.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 18, 2019
The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
Bill Brame edited Star Trek films before he took up “house flipping.”
During the housing boom, Bill was often “turning around” 14 houses at once with three crews of renovators working full time.
In 2004, he paid $400,000 for a house in Hollywood, California. A year later he flipped it for $1.2 million.
Back then, flipping houses was the most profitable side-job in America. Buy a house, fit it with a new kitchen, sell it for a big mark-up, repeat.
In 2006, one in every 10 homes was bought to flip!
Friday, October 11, 2019
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
As can be seen in the graph below, there is an almost uncanny similarity between housing prices at the 2006-2007 peak, and current home prices.
The biggest difference is that current home prices are substantially higher. Should we be worried about a repeat scenario - and another six year decline in home values?
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Friday, October 11, 2019
What’s Your Plan as the Home Price Index Hits Zero / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
The real estate industry must have the best lobbyists in the country. How else can you explain that a data-driven transaction – buying or selling a home – has become more onerous, and more cumbersome. And overall more painful even as information becomes cheaper and easier to get?These guys are protecting their turf, and we’re paying for it.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Earlier this week I read a great article by Kuppy at Adventures In Capitalism. It brought back memories of the last condo and real estate bubble in Miami… I was there. I was moving to Tampa and sold before the crash that I was nearly alone in forecasting in late 2005 .Kuppy noted that prices had plateaued for a few years and had begun to drop 20% to 35% in South Beach – and worse in the downtown Brickell area. He talks to a friend who makes non-traditional loans against these condos, and he says “it’s about to blow… just give it six to nine months.”
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Wednesday, September 18, 2019
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
Roughly $900 billion worth of real estate changes hands every year in America.
For many folks, buying a home is the biggest decision of their lives.
What is the neighborhood like?
Are the schools good?
How far is the drive to work?
Monday, September 16, 2019
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the tribulations associated with selling a home. We were in the thick of inspections, appraisals, etc. As we sold our home, and worked on a separate home purchase at the same time.Then our home sale fell through, which killed my purchase. While I might not be heeding Harry’s advice to be real estate free, I’m also not so bullheaded as to own two homes that function as primary residences.
Just like baseball, there’s no crying in real estate. We wiped the slate clean and started over. A new buyer showed up within 10 days.
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Monday, September 02, 2019
US Housing Market House Prices Trend Forecast Current State / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's been a while since my last analysis of the US housing market, in fact a full 3 years, preceded by my original 3 year trend forecast covering November 2012 to early 2016 that forecast a strong a bull market against expectations at the time (and for many subsequent years), for it's forgotten today that in the aftermath of the financial crisis the prevailing view was that the US housing market was dead for a generation, and this not just from the usual perma doom merchants (I don't like to name names but you know who they are!) but was consensus view at the time.
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Friday, August 23, 2019
Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A US Housing Bear Market? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
So, the reality is that based on our modeling system and our research, there are only two ways that the US Fed (and likely the global central banks) can navigate out of this inflation killing debt glut that has sunk the global markets into a quicksand-like economic malaise; either A. reduce debts dramatically across the board (all nations) in an attempt to allow for some level of future growth/inflation opportunity, or B. find a way to push GDP out levels to 2x (or higher) that of current debt levels. A is much more difficult to negotiate and navigate – but it may be an option sometime in the future. B is the more likely option with a transition into some type of new 21st-century economic model that assists in advancing the build-it, sell-it model.
In the last, Part II, a section of our research, we showed you a chart of our US Fed modeling system and where we believe the US Fed should be targeting rates currently. The one thing that was a bit different than our original model, created in 2013, was the election of President Trump and the EU, US/China trade wars. This could complicate things a bit in the future, but overall the model continues to perform well.
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Thursday, August 22, 2019
Fed Too Late To Prevent US Real Estate Market Crash? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In Part I of this research, we highlighted the Case-Shiller index of home affordability and how it relates to the US real estate market and consumer economic activity going forward. We warned that once consumers start to shift away from an optimistic view of the economy, they typically shift into a protectionist stance where they attempt to protect wealth, assets and risk of loss while attempting to weather the economic storm.
We’ve seen this happen in 2008-09 as well as after the 9/11 attacks in the US in 2001. The process is always somewhat similar. Consumers start to react to pricing levels that are unaffordable and do so by trying to skimp on extraneous purchases like travel, new cars, credit card debt or other items that are not essential. The other thing that happens is that the lower tier borrowers (the “at-risk borrowers”) typically begin to become delinquent on debts and fall behind on their mortgage payments. This is how the process starts.
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Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Fed Too Late To Prevent A US Housing Market Crash? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime. It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off. After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it. What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index – including all markets in the US. It is fairly easy to see that in last 2016, on a national level, the Case-Shiller index had reached the 2006 peak level. After that, the new Trump economy pushed it even higher where we now near 210. This is a very uncommon level for this index and because we are in uncharted territory with this 210 ranking, it should concern everyone that a reversion maybe somewhere in our future.
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Tuesday, August 20, 2019
How to Play Interest Rates in US Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
I can walk into a car dealership and drive away with a moving asset worth more than $130,000 in less than an hour. However, if I want to buy – or sell – an immovable object that’s always right where you left it, then I have to go through a million hoops.
Home Sale And Home Purchase
Clearly, I’m frustrated with the latest twist in my home sale and purchase saga.
Everything started out pretty good. We listed the house, had a fair number of showings, no real bites, so lowered the price. And we negotiated with one couple, but before we settled on a number, another group jumped in and out-bid them. We came to an agreement and started the option/inspection/negotiation/appraisal process.
Saturday, July 20, 2019
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the final analysis in my US housing market series that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast.
- Current State
- Momentum Analysis
- US ECONOMY - GDP
- Unemployment
- Inflation
- Producer Prices Index
- Yield Curve
- US Debt
- QE4EVER!
- DEMOGRAPHICS
- US Home Builders Index (XHB)
- US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
- US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Peering into the Mists of Time