Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
The World's Troubled Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Steve_H_Hanke
For academics, the term "troubled currency" might be a term of art. But for people who are faced with such a currency, they know a troubled currency when they see one. Today, this is the case for millions of people around the world — most notably in Iran, North Korea, Argentina, Venezuela, Egypt and Syria.
A troubled currency is one in which users have lost confidence. When users no longer think a currency will retain its purchasing power, they attempt to dump it for a stable foreign currency (or commodities). As the demand for the troubled currency evaporates, its value vis-á-vis stable foreign currencies collapses, and prices for goods and services sold in the troubled currency soar. As this process develops, expectations about the currency’s ability to retain its purchasing power deteriorate, and a doom loop ensues. At the extreme, doom loops can culminate in hyperinflation — an inflation rate of over 50% per month. This, however, is rare. Indeed, there have only been 56 cases of hyperinflation.
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Tuesday, July 23, 2013
USD Index Could Find A Support Around 82.00 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD Index has moved out of wave B range yesterday so prices are now already in wave C, final leg of a three wave decline. As such, traders must be aware of a trend reversal, especially if we consider that move out of a triangle is final within the larger structure. From a confirmation point of view we need an impulsive rally back through 83.15 to turn bullish on the buck.
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Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Frustrations of a Portfolio Manager: Why I Sell the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Markets are meant to exert the maximum amount of frustration on investors; indeed, the markets have lived up to their side of the bargain. To survive and possibly thrive in the business, portfolio managers need to be a special breed. This newsletter is a bit different from our typical analysis in that I provide insight as to how I approach the markets, what makes me get up in the morning, and how you can get the most out of your portfolio manager.
Tuesday, July 16, 2013
The Best Currencies to Invest in for 2013 / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Currency markets in the first half of 2013 have been roiled by central bankers' delusional efforts to prop up their lackluster economies.
That means the best currencies to invest in for 2013 - or, the remainder of the year - will be in Asia and Canada - countries where the governments have refused to engage in debasing their currencies in a "race to the bottom."
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Thursday, July 11, 2013
Major Bank Makes A Freudian Slip About The U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
The cognitive dissonance about the dollar never fails to amaze me. People know in their bones that their dollars will be worth a lot less in the future...yet they continue to trust and cling to the dollar as a store of value. They invest in things denominated in dollars that pay interest well below the rate of inflation. Or they go for all out gambling in the stock market to have a hope of outpacing inflation enough to build a tiny bit of wealth to leave to their grandkids.
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Value of the Syrian Pound Hits an All-Time Low / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Steve_H_Hanke
ime has imposed harsh penalties for currency trading on the black-market. This strategy proved wildly unsuccessful when it was utilized by the Iran in October of 2012.
Indeed, as was the case in Iran, attempts to suppress currency exchange have sparked a panic – a run on the Syrian pound. As of 10 July 2013, the value of the Syrian pound on the black market has hit an all time low, with the current black-market exchange rate now sitting at 295.00 SYP/USD.
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Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Do We Need A New Single World Reserve Currency? / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Andrew_McKillop
GOLD, CO2 AND THE DREAM OF NEW WORLD CURRENCIES
Gold bugs might think that so-called Currency Wars – a chaotic attempt at competitive devaluation of all major present currencies and the unpublicised main reason for Quantitative Easing – means that gold's supposed 'natural role' as a strong, solid and reliable money standard can only be bolstered by the rush to devalue. However, as we know, gold itself has suffered massive coordinated attacks this year. Recent gold price falls have been so violent – while QE money printing remains so extreme – making it likely the time-hallowed central bankers' action to talk down gold prices, to bolster their fiat paper moneys, is running at a flat out pace. At the same time however, competitive devaluation by the bankers of their fiat paper moneys is also running flat out!
Friday, July 05, 2013
Canadian Dollar Analysis - Potential Emerging Trade / Currencies / Canadian $
By: Michael_Noonan
The volume activity recently caught our eye in the Canadian dollar and prompted a closer
look. Our position is that by following the developing market activity, across a series of
time frames, a story about a potential trade should emerge. What follows are our rough
draft charts, without comments on them, beyond a few initial observations, going from one
time frame to another. All that matters is the conclusion drawn from them.
Trend is always of primary consideration, and the daily seems to be at cross-purposes for positioning in harmony with the trend. Acknowledged and considered.
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Wednesday, July 03, 2013
Why the Rising U.S. Dollar is Still Doomed to Crash / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes: Many have wondered - and rightly so - why the U.S. dollar is rising even though the U.S. Federal Reserve has done just about everything possible to debase the currency over the past five years.
Over the past two years, the U.S. Dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of major world currencies, is up by more than 12.6%.
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Tuesday, June 18, 2013
GBP/USD Could Reverse Into A Deeper Pull-back, towards 1.5480 / Currencies / British Pound
By: ForexPros
We can count five waves up in wave A) from 1.5000 psychological level on the cable, which means that temporary high for this pair could be near if we consider that correction follows after every five waves.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 17, 2013
A Safe Place for Your Cash... OUTSIDE the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / Canadian $
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Money flows to where it's treated best... that's one of the surest rules in finance.
And it is key to picking currencies.
Right now, money is treated better in Canada than in just about any other major country on the globe. And with the setup we have today, you could make as much as 27% over the next 12 months.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Fierce Selloff in Emerging Market Currencies; India Panic Intervention to Stop Rupee Crash... / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Mike_Shedlock
... Brazil Steps Up Real Intervention; Root Cause of Crisis
It's hard not to laugh at the irony of recent central bank currency actions.
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After complaining for years about the strength of the Real, the Brazilian central bank stepped up intervention actions hoping to stop a plunge in the currency.
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Turkey now attempts to attract capital after taking measures for the past four years to stop the flow of money into the country.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Forex Rigging Scandal and Market Manipulation / Currencies / Market Regulation
By: Jesse
The foreign exchange rigging scandal that is coming to light is very interesting, even in this time of financial scandals and corruption.
Here is the original Bloomberg story on it and you may wish to read it in its entirety.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Banks Manipulating Trades and Rigging Benchmarks in Foreign Exchange Markets / Currencies / Market Manipulation
By: Jesse
Are there any markets that have not been corrupted by lax regulation and Banks who have been emboldened in their insatiable greed by the lack of effective enforcement of the rules and equal justice for all?
It is somewhat ironic that this news comes on the revelation that Obama is replacing Gary Gensler, Chairman of the CFTC, for being too aggressive in seeking to regulate the Swaps markets and angering some foreign banks (read London trading operations of the big multinational banks). London has become a favored haven for corrupt financial practices.
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Tuesday, June 11, 2013
U.S. Dollar At Risk? Case for Profiting from Managing Currency Risk / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The “cleanest” dirty shirt, the U.S. dollar, is down versus the euro so far this year; and was down last year. Yet, S&P, in upgrading the credit outlook of the U.S., cites U.S. dollar strength. If this is a strong dollar environment, are investors prepared for a weak one? With plenty of dirty laundry in the world, we ponder how investors might be able to profit from actively managing currency risk.
Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Sell the U.S. Dollar? Case for Hard Currencies / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The Fed’s “tapering,” the dollar’s up, bonds are down. Is this time to bet on the greenback, or to diversify out of the dollar? We believe the dollar may not only have gotten ahead of itself, it also rallied for the wrong reasons. Only the future will tell whether this is an opportunity to sell the dollar, but we can look at risks and opportunities presented.
Friday, May 24, 2013
Global Currency Devaluation Derby Where the Biggest Loser Wins / Currencies / Currency War
By: Peter_Schiff
While the world's economies jockey one another for the lead in the currency devaluation derby, it's worth considering the value of the prize they are seeking. They believe a weak currency opens the door to trade dominance, by allowing manufacturers to undercut foreign rivals, and to economic growth, by fighting deflation. On the other side of the coin, they believe a strong currency is an economic albatross that leads to stagnation. But the demonstrable effects of currency strength and weakness reveal the emptiness of their theory.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Gold, US Dollar Index and 3 Currency Market Forecasts / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: David_Petch
This article was posted for the benefit of subscribers on Wednesday, May 15th, 2013. I have included one Elliott Wave count of gold at the very end...it is not important to understand the wave count, just the implied direction, which should be hinted at the US Dollar Index. I was following a pattern for 5 years that changed due to one small thing that happened and was discussed for a few months now. Since it happened, it was a game changer and has important consequences for everything going forward. The Contracting Fibonacci Spiral that I discovered nearly two years ago is approaching its extended time post of May 21st, 2013 and if it extends further, the potential downside will be faster and see a compression in time for what the potential downside is. I would encourage everyone to at least read this article and try to understand the big picture, because it is one of the most important articles I have written in the past two years.
Monday, May 20, 2013
EUR/USD: Bearish Cycles Remains In Play / Currencies / Euro
By: ForexPros
The EUR/USD reversed slightly higher on Thursday from 1.2840 support but not for long. Recovery found resistance very soon, so it was probably just a fourth wave within larger wave 3 down. Our bias remains unchanged and we are looking for a weaker EUR/USD, towards 1.2800 as a next projected target, where we could see a temporary low and a wave 4 pull-back. Short-term critical level is at 1.2935, as wave four must not trade into the territory of a wave one.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 17, 2013
US Dollar Ends Another 9 Year Down Cycle / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Recent rallies in Non-USD currencies resulting from poor US data have not lasted long. And those rallies resulting from strong US figures via the indirect effect of rallying equities (risk-on) have not lasted either. Broadening pro-USD sentiment may stay for longer than we had thought as the US dollar index has exited from another 9-year down cycle.