Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, February 19, 2012
Macro Economic News Aiding Currency Market Technicals for 2012 / Currencies / Forex Trading
RBA stood pat early this morning as it kept rates at 4.25% and AUD/USD reacted sharply up to 1.08 levels but was capped at the barrier at 1.08. We expect this level to be challenged.
China early on Friday decided to drain 26 bn yuan from the money market. These are all limiting factors in the risk rally of 2012 and unless you are looking carefully, you may miss these important triggers and on the downside, they will accelerate the falls. Markets unwind differently than when they go up.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 09, 2012
Will Currency Devaluation Fix the Eurozone? / Currencies / Euro
The NYU professor of economics Nouriel Roubini said in Davos, Switzerland, on January 25, 2012, that tight policies are making the recession in the eurozone worse. According to Roubini what Europe needs is less austerity and more growth. In particular, the NYU professor is concerned about the deep recession in the eurozone's peripheral countries: Spain, Portugal, Greece — all are on a strict regime of austerity. For instance, in Spain the yearly rate of growth of government outlays stood at minus 12.4 percent in November against minus 15.7 percent in the month before. In Portugal the yearly rate of growth stood at minus 3.6 percent in December against minus 2.5 percent in November. In Greece the yearly rate of growth fell to 2.9 percent in December from 6.2 percent in the prior month.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
How U.S. Dollar Value Fit Into the Economy Big Picture? / Currencies / US Dollar
More credit is denominated in U.S. dollars than any other currency. What does this mean for the value of the dollar as the credit crisis continues its strangle-hold on the world economies?
Enjoy this video clip of Bob Prechter from an October interview with The Mind of Money host Douglass Lodmell, in which Bob discusses the debt implosion and the value of the U.S. dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 30, 2012
100 Billion Reasons To Buy Apple Stock / Currencies / Tech Stocks
Jack Barnes writes: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is one of the world's largest companies based on market capitalization.
Cupertino, CA-based Apple just released one of the best earnings reports in the history of capitalism.
In short, they crushed it-sending Apple stock to a fresh 52-week high.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 26, 2012
The Broken U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
It has been my theory that this year we would see one of the worst performances by the stock market since 2008. However that has always been dependent on Bernanke not being able to break the dollar's rally out of its three year cycle low. As of this morning the dollar has printed a failed daily cycle. More often than not a failed daily cycle is an indication that an intermediate degree decline has begun.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 23, 2012
Bullish Set Up on US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
The US Federal Reserve meets next week (Jan 24/25) and many are expecting Bernanke to release the next financial QE details. The markets are poised for Ben next market leading action.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Eye on U.S. Dollar vs Commodity Index / Currencies / US Dollar
One chart set-up that we need to watch closely in the coming hours and days is the comparison of the dollar and commodity indexes, as their directional price implications could have a major impact on a cross-section of markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Chinese Dragon To Unshackle Renminbi? / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
With the Year of the Dragon around the corner, will the renminbi be unshackled? Will there be a surge in domestic consumption, or will a housing bust weigh on the economy, dragging down global economic growth? To understand how dynamics may play out in China, try to put yourself into the shoes of the proverbial Chinese consumer. Better yet, put yourself into hundreds of millions of such shoes…
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
U.S. Dollar Premature Obituaries / Currencies / US Dollar
It is open season for wild monetary prognostications. More premature obituaries on the dollar have been posted on the Internet. For example, see Jim Willie's The US Dollar Paper Tiger (Gold-Eagle, January 11) with epitaphs like "the U.S. dollar rising to the cemetery", or "dollar death dance". Or see another article, Jeff Nielsen's entitled Maximum Fraud in U.S. Treasurys (Gold-Eagle, January 3). It betrays maximum misunderstanding about keeping the dollar on a life-support system. It assumes that the Fed and the U.S. Treasury are fighting tooth and nail to keep the value of government debt high lest it collapse in want of support from Japan, China, and other countries.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
U.S. Dollar Threats, the Paper Tiger / Currencies / US Dollar
Events in the last decade displayed a vigorous effort to defend the USDollar. The rogue nation of Iraq sold crude oil in Euros for three years, until they were liberated. Its tyrant was a scourge to be sure. Weapons of financial mass destruction seem to have replaced the traditional type, the new variety being derivatives, mortgage bonds, and even sovereign bonds from weak nations. Newer weapons from the United States feature extended hands from clearing house fronts that snatch and grab segregated private accounts, and backdoor raids of exchange traded fund precious metal. Let's not overlook the more frontal assault weapons deployed like unseating Qaddafi and capturing his gold held in foreign accounts, along with all that cash. Liberation has its benefits. The confrontation with Iran would be comical if not so dangerous. The claims have been silly in my view for years, in the perception of Iran as a serious threat to the West. They have been subjected to cut communication lines on the Persian Gulf seabed. They have been subjected to Stuxnet viruses to obstruct their nuclear refinement process, via the Siemens rear door. They have been subjected to an influx of heroin from the north, where the USMilitary manages the Afghan situation and locale.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
U.S. Dollar's Lucky Streak / Currencies / US Dollar
Recent U.S. economic data, such as the modest drop in the unemployment rate and the massive expansion of consumer credit, have suggested that the American economy is finally recovering. Opposite conclusions are being thrown at Europe, where many are convinced that recession is returning. Not surprisingly then, the dollar is currently hitting a multi-year high against the euro. The strength of the dollar itself is often held up as one of the major proof points that the U.S. economy is "improving." But the data points that I believe really matter continue to suggest an economy on life support. I believe that the dollar is rising for reasons that have nothing to do with America's economic health.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 09, 2012
U.S. Dollar Foreign Currency Pairs Analysis / Currencies / Forex Trading
As we noted in the most recent weekend update, there have been some developments in the long term Secular/Supercycle patterns of the currencies. As you are aware, the USD Secular trend, or Supercycle if you will, has been bearish against most foreign currencies since 1985. We have reason to believe this ended at the 2011 price low of 72.70 DXY. The USD should now be in a Secular bull market. Initial estimates suggest the DXY should reach 140 by 2018.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 08, 2012
Huh? When the Fed Balance Sheet Expands, it’s actually U.S. Dollar Bullish!? / Currencies / US Dollar
If you ever happen to acquire an inclination for being the subject of disrepute and ridicule I highly recommend endorsing the conceit alluded to in the title. Apparently this issue is ‘so obvious’ that even gold bugs and government officials can reach common ground via the contention that I’m deluded. My folly — if you will — is to maintain that dollar debasement can be bullish for the dollar vis-à-vis other currencies at present. Since this long-standing conviction of ours is once again being corroborated by price action in the currency markets I thought I’d attempt to convince you that I’m not completely crazy. Here I outline why dollar debasement is bullish for the dollar against other fiat currencies in this environment.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 05, 2012
U.S. Dollar and Currencies: Review and Outlook / Currencies / Forex Trading
In 2012, policy makers around the world may be driven by the realization that the theme of 2011 was not a Euro-specific crisis, but simply another stage in a global financial crisis. Central bankers may ramp up their printing presses in an effort to limit “contagion” concerns. As such, the currency markets may be the purest way to take a view on the “mania” of policy makers. Market movements may continue to be largely driven by political rhetoric, rather than company earnings announcements or economic data. We don’t believe this trend will abate over the foreseeable future, especially given the likely leadership changes throughout several G-7 nations.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 03, 2012
U.S. Dollar Forecast 2012, How to Play A Short-Term Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
Larry D. Spears writes: The U.S. dollar will start 2012 on an upswing - but don't let it fool you.
What we're seeing is only a short-term rally inspired by Europe's travails. In the long-term, the U.S. Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy and the United States' own debt burden will drive the greenback back down.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
U.S. Dollar being Replaced by China, Japan a Gold Positive! / Currencies / Fiat Currency
The Globalization Process for the Yuan
Japan and China will promote direct trading of yen and yuan without using dollars and will encourage the development of a market for companies involved in the exchanges, the Japanese government said over the holiday weekend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Eye on Euro and Gold / Currencies / Euro
Well, wouldn't we all like to know what new ECB head Draghi is thinking about Mr. Market's response to his "cheap money give-away" right about now.
EUR/USD has plunged from 1.3200 to 1.3030/40, which has dragged down all the sympathetic and synchronized global equity and commodity markets too -- all in the last two hours or so!
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 19, 2011
Time for a Two-Month Trade Against the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
I believe gold hit a bottom last week, and I believe it will enter a multi-month rally starting now.
I also believe that the U.S. dollar hit a near-term peak this week, and I believe it will enter a multi-month downtrend, starting now.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Where the Euro Should be Trading / Currencies / Euro
John Taylor, founder of the world's largest currency hedge fund FX Concepts LLC, spoke to Bloomberg TV's Lisa Murphy. Taylor talked about what currencies his fund is currently investing in and gave his thoughts on the euro and USD.
On where he thinks the euro should be trading:
"It seems to me that [the euro] should be a lot lower than it is."
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Indian Rupee to Stop here for a while and Why Rupee Fell? / Currencies / India
Dear investor
Indian Rupee hit the target of 54, I had given in last letter titled “ Why Indian Rupee falling precipitously??” (Link).
I had also mentioned reasons for rupee’s sharp fall like Fiscal Deficit, Trade Deficit and bearish sentiments among Foreign Investors caused by hyperinflation and mismanagement of governance.
Read full article... Read full article...