Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Gold Predictive Modeling Suggests A New Rally Targeting $2300+, But When Will it Start? - 8th Mar 21
Gold: Crisis or Opportunity? - 8th Mar 21
US Bitter Cold Snap is a sign of the times - 8th Mar 21
How Scan Computers Builds Your Custom Built PC - Review (2) - 8th Mar 21
US Economy, GDP, Unemployment, Inflation Impact on House Prices Trend 2021 - 8th Mar 21
BACK TO SCHOOL - UK Coronavirus Lockdown Ending - Summer Holidays & Booming Economy Ahead - 8th Mar 21
So, Where Is Gold's Corrective Upswing? - 7th Mar 21
US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger Stock Market Crazy Ivan Event - 7th Mar 21
The Great Reset Is Coming for the Currency - 7th Mar 21
Gold Continues Declines on Bond Yield Jitters - 7th Mar 21
The Case for Inflation - 7th Mar 21
Dow Short-term Stock Market Trend Analysis - 6th Mar 21
Intel Rocket Lake EXPLODE on Launch - 11th Gen CPU's RUN VERY HOT Bad Cinebench R20 Scores - 6th Mar 21
US & UK Head for Post Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown Inflationary Economic BOOM - 6th Mar 21
FED Balance Sheet Current State - 5th Mar 21
The Global Vaccine Race Against Time and Variants - 5th Mar 21
US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger A Crazy Ivan Event (Again) In Stock Market - 5th Mar 21
After Gold’s Slide, What Happens to Miners? - 5th Mar 21
Racism Pandemic Why UK Black and Asians NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 BAME - 5th Mar 21
Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021 - 4th Mar 21
Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? - 4th Mar 21
The Top Technologies That Are Transforming the Casino Industry - 4th Mar 21
How to Get RICH Crypto Mining Bitcoin, Ethereum With NiceHash - 4th Mar 21
Coronavirus Pandemic Vaccines Indicator Current State - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations Explained - 3rd Mar 21
Stock Market Bull Trend in Jeopardy - 3rd Mar 21
New Global Reserve Currency? - 3rd Mar 21
Gold To Monetary Base Ratio Says No Hyperinflation - 3rd Mar 21
US Fed Grilled about Its Unsound Currency, Digital Currency Schemes - 3rd Mar 21
The Case Against Inflation - 3rd Mar 21
How to Start Crypto Mining Bitcoins, Ethereum with Your Desktop PC, Laptop with NiceHash - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing Portfolio Buying Levels and Valuations 2021 Explained - 2nd Mar 21
There’s A “Chip” Shortage: And TSMC Holds All The Cards - 2nd Mar 21
Why now might be a good time to buy gold and gold juniors - 2nd Mar 21
Silver Is Close To Something Big - 2nd Mar 21
Bitcoin: Let's Put 2 Heart-Pounding Price Drops into Perspective - 2nd Mar 21
Gold Stocks Spring Rally 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
Covid-19 Vaccinations US House Prices Trend Indicator 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
How blockchain technology will change the online casino - 2nd Mar 21
How Much PC RAM Memory is Good in 2021, 16gb, 32gb or 64gb? - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis - 26th Feb 21
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls - 26th Feb 21
Kiss of Life for Gold - 26th Feb 21
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market - 26th Feb 21
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 - 26th Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Confidence and Inflation

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Apr 18, 2009 - 07:35 PM GMT

By: Julian_DW_Phillips


Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"You can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time, but you can give it a good go and discredit the rest who won't be fooled!" If it doesn't go like that maybe it should?

The issue of Money.
Many are still digesting the outcomes of the G-20 meeting in London. So a thought occurred to me. If I went to my bank and asked, "May I have another loan? Oh, I know I am terribly over-borrowed already, but could you lend me my entire year's income on top of my present loans?" He would ask me, "against what collateral?" I would say, "none!" His reply would likely not come from the best of English. Now I tell him that, "I am your only client and say no and you'll go bust as well as me." Then he might smile and hail me as his financial savior too?

Isn't that what the issue of $1 trillion on top of the $12 trillion already issued as guarantees, 'quantitative easing' and the like [equivalent to the entire production of the U.S. in one year] really is? Just think of it, where is the money coming from? What collateral is being given, what repayment terms. It is simply another tranche of the huge mountain of I.O.U.'s already given, but this time to lift the lesser developed nations out of a potential Depression.

Confidence restored?
Let's face it, the financial system has broken down and still has not been repaired. Yes, steps are underway and are trying to restore the system. Yes, the banking system is being checked to ensure it will be healthy, but something else has not been repaired and remains structurally damaged. "Confidence!" Without this no matter what mechanics are applied the repairs won't work. And we are not talking about professionals in finance becoming confident, we are talking about the drivers of the global economies, the consumers. Unless he is confident going forward he will not spend freely again, he will save, reduce debt, remove his vulnerability to his lifestyle being reduced again. At the moment the repairs to the system are starting at the top not at the bottom. You may reply but homeowners are receiving assistance and seeing a reduction in the threats to their homes. This may be true, but what we are talking about here is the full restoration of confidence so that the consumer will buy houses again, they will go out and finance cars again, without that sneaky feeling that he could see them foreclosed on or repossessed. Until that happens don't expect much improvement in the overall national or international economies.

Will the present issues of mountains of money restore confidence? Only to some extent and that with such caution, that a retreat into fear can be sparked in just a day to a week. After all, confidence in the banking system has been badly mauled in the last 18 months and presently still stands on the edge of a precipice.

Can fear produce confidence?
How can the system speed up the process? Through a different kind of fear! With very few choices in the hands of governments and central banks the most obvious way forward is an unpleasant one. If the consumer is made to believe that his income will rise because of inflation and his savings further decimated by inflation, he will stop saving and start spending if only to gain value through the rising prices that his house and perhaps his car will enjoy through inflation. That would be a quicker process, moving at the same speed as inflation.

We don't advocate this path at all, but there has to be a policy of saving what can be saved and letting go of that which cannot be saved and savers will be the victims as their wealth is erased. [That is unless they switch to precious metal now and shield themselves from inflation? We do expect to see this happen, but sad to say, most investors just don't know gold and silver] Until the powers that be accept that the system is structurally faulty and rectify this, the path ahead will not be just.

Such a course will produce convincing benefits. The consumer would see the burden of debt drop as inflation pushed his income up and that sufficient for him to repay debt quicker. Institutional debt would face the same outcome enabling the system to produce a larger after-tax, cash flow and lowering of debt ratios. Yes, it would be tough on those who live on past savings, unless they hold these in the unprintable precious metals. Unfortunately the dangers are so vivid that this may well be taken as collateral damage, as was the case in the past.

In the sixties through the eighties debt re-scheduling was used in the same way to the point where such bad debt was written off and ceased to be a threat to the banks. A similar path can be followed speeded up by inflation. Toxic assets will have to be "contained" until that process is well underway, emasculating such toxicity. As inflation scythes it way through debt [and the mountains of debt we now see with the lenders of last resort have never been seen before] so confidence [likely misplaced] will be restored as the threats hanging over the consumer diminish.

So the printing of money serves a dual role.

  1. Restore the system [if only in the short-term].
  2. Pressure the consumer into spending again. Remember the target remains the consumer, so that inflation must encourage spending out of both fear and the preservation of value.

However, the entire experience of the last two years will not be erased. The system has broken down and can't be fixed in this way. All the moves to date simply restore the system to a workable one. Genuine confidence, the sort that inspires hope in the future, has gone. What is most concerning is the way the market is receiving bad news in dribs and drabs. We are aware that another $500 billion in write-downs is on the way and that the process of new liquidity flowing to trouble spots is usually inefficient, so we must expect more shocks to the system. But that takes away a bit more confidence each time and belittles any efforts made to repair the system. Can a resuscitation of confidence take place in this environment?

The consumer driven growth has been found to be wanting. It engendered a "Live now, Pay later" attitude, which has now become "lived once, now paying". And in the current environment the consumer doesn't harbor dreams of wealth beyond his means, he is in survival mode. How can one get the system right without the traumas that usually attend system reformation? Only if the short-term answers have produced an environment that takes away the traumas at the lowest common denominator of consumer, the blue collar worker level. In the Depression he was revived through infrastructural spending where he would simply be paid to work, even if that work produced few goods. In China the government has instituted massive infrastructural projects to keep workers busy and paid. This process must be on-going until confidence is restored, but across the entire world!

Effective Reformation?
One economy from history, millenniums ago, had laws that had debt written off every seven years, with property being returned to it original owners every fifty years. This prevented the building of banking and property empires and spread wealth more evenly through the nation, bringing integration to that society that made it survive and prosper on a broad front. In that economic system there was no mass production, no mass distribution system and no unemployment because of that.

But there is little will to change the current system into anything that produces that sort of result. The focus is now on to get our consumer driven system with its financial empires, restored to what it was. This implies it will remain vulnerable to what it has already experienced.

Change investing?
Consequently, wise investors have to take precautions against the potential damage they may suffer. Leveraged investing with time limits will be seen as what it is, gambling! More and more, investments will be fully paid for up-front and short-term investments relying on short-term results will be seen as unacceptably risky. The prudence of investments in assets that are at the same time assets and cash, such as gold and silver, will come firmly back into fashion and institutional portfolios.

We cannot emphasize enough the dangers of the inflation that lies ahead! Gold and Silver have yet to have their day!

Gold Forecaster regularly covers all fundamental and Technical aspects of the gold price in the weekly newsletter. To subscribe, please visit

By Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money

Copyright 2009 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved.
Julian Phillips - was receiving his qualifications to join the London Stock Exchange. He was already deeply immersed in the currency turmoil engulfing world in 1970 and the Institutional Gold Markets, and writing for magazines such as "Accountancy" and the "International Currency Review" He still writes for the ICR.

What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market.

Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.

Julian DW Phillips Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules