Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Stock Market Crash and Recession Indicator Warning: Extreme Danger Ahead - Harry_Dent
2. Is This How World War III Begins, In Almost Complete Silence? - Jeff_Berwick
3.Trump Wins 2nd Presidential Debate, Betfair Betting Markets Odds Bounce - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Why Krugman, Roubini, Rogoff And Buffett Dislike Gold - GoldCore
5.End of SPX Stock Market Correction Nears - Tony_Caldaro
6.Get Ready for the Future - Exponential Machine Intelligence Mega-trend towards Singularity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Housing Market Bubble II – It’s Happening Again! - Andy_Sutton
8.FTSE BrExit Stock Market Panic Crash Resolves towards New All Time Highs - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Can Trump Still Win Despite Opinion Polls, Bookmakers and Pundits all Saying Hillary has Won? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Gold’s, Miners’ Stops Run - Zeal_LLC
Last 7 days
Where Will Crude Oil Price Head Next? - 25th Oct 16
Diamonds in the Gold and Silver Mining Stocks - 25th Oct 16
Trump’s Gettysburg Address against the New World - 25th Oct 16
This Past Week in Gold - 24th Oct 16
Can Gold Continue To Rise, Since The Usd Is Moving Higher Too? - 24th Oct 16
Why are Americans Avoiding the Stock Markets; Fear or Lack of Money? - 24th Oct 16
The US Is NOT a Low-Tax Jurisdiction - 24th Oct 16
Stocks, Crude Oil and EURUSD Trend Forecasts - 24th Oct 16
Stock Market Another Month to Go? - 24th Oct 16
Large Sell-off in Stock Market Looming - 24th Oct 16
Ungovernability - 24th Oct 16
Stock Market Boredom Before The Storm - 24th Oct 16
Establishment Mainstream Media Elite Buys US Election for Hillary Clinton, Time Running Out for Trump - 23rd Oct 16
Inflation About To Explode Higher - 22nd Oct 16
Still waiting for SPX uptrend to kick off - 22nd Oct 16
Will a Rising US Dollar Crush Gold’s Fledgling Bull? - 22nd Oct 16
Why The Global Economy Will Disintegrate Rapidly Back to Olduvai Gorge - 22nd Oct 16
GLD Bleeds Out; Weekly Gold Update - 22nd Oct 16
Stock Market Investment Success Through the “Investment Rule of 72” - 21st Oct 16
The Final Bottom in Gold - WHEN - 21st Oct 16
Gold Green Lights Upleg - 21st Oct 16
Demand for US Mints Silver Eagles has ‘Returned with a Vengeance’ - 21st Oct 16
Central Bankers Can't Stop The Death Blow Of The Post US Election Recession - 21st Oct 16
The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: Golden Opportunity for Frontier Asia - 21st Oct 16
Have You Taken These 4 Simple Steps to Improve Your Trading? - 21st Oct 16
The Stock Market is an Accident Waiting to Happen - 20th Oct 16
It's Rally Time for Gold and Silver Equities - 20th Oct 16
Cashless Society – Risks Posed By The War On Cash - 20th Oct 16
China's insane Housing Market Will Tumble and Crash in 2017 - 20th Oct 16
Donald Trump Bounces Going into 3rd and Final US Presidential Election Debate - 20th Oct 16
Attention Please: Phase Two of the Gold and Silver Train Now leaving the Station. All Aboard? - 19th Oct 16
How to Successfully Trade a Stock Market Crash - Black Monday October 19th 1987 - 19th Oct 16
Tesla, Apple and Uber Push Lithium Prices Even Higher - 18th Oct 16
Silver, Debt, and Deficits – From an Election Year Perspective - 18th Oct 16
UK Property Market: Slow Growth Does Not Equate To Decline - 18th Oct 16
Trump Election Victory is in Your Power - 18th Oct 16
Stock Market More to Come! - 18th Oct 16
This Past Week in Gold and Silver - 17th Oct 16
A Falling Stock Market Cannot Be Allowed - Financial Repression Is Now “In-Play”! - 17th Oct 16
Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Trend Forecasts - 17th Oct 16
Stock Market Crash..or No Crash? - 17th Oct 16
A perspective on risk rally – Risks abound but Stock Market is Confident - 17th Oct 16
Bank of England Blames Brexit for Sterling Drop Inflation, Masks QE Money Printing Cause - 17th Oct 16
From Piety to Pride to Pity, America's Racial Divide - 17th Oct 16
Is Obama Juicing US Government Spending To Get Hillary Clinton Elected? - 16th Oct 16
Seek Your Independence: Anything Else Will Destroy You - 16th Oct 16
SNL - US Presidential Debates, 1st, 2nd, VP - Like You've Never Seen them Before! - 16th Oct 16
End of Economic Growth Sparks Wide Discontent - 16th Oct 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

LEARN to Trade

China Decision to Buy $80 Billion of Gold, the Dragon's Hoard

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Jun 25, 2009 - 10:36 AM GMT

By: Michael_J_Kosares


Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"We've got a situation where Geithner is smiling and has no choice but to stress the credibility and stability of the US financial and economic system, while the creditors [such as the Chinese] smile back and say they believe him, while at the same time giving hand signals to their reserve managers to get rid of these things [U.S. Treasuries]." - Neil Mellor, Bank of New York-Mellon

When China recently expressed its interest in purchasing $80 billion in gold (about 2600 tonnes), it profoundly altered the gold market's long-standing synergy in three significant ways: 

First, it used to be that the threat  of central bank gold sales would damage market sentiment. Now the threat of significant sales has been met with the threat of significant purchases. 

Though the dragon hoard depicted by our good friend, Ed Stein is not yet a reality, China can back its desire to own gold with plenty of cold hard cash. At nearly $1.4 trillion in dollar-based assets, and almost $2 trillion in total reserves, $80 billion would consume a paltry 6% of China's dollar reserves. At the same time 2600 tonnes translates to roughly one-third the U.S. gold reserve -- a significant ambition by any measure. To give you an inkling of how this new synergy might work, when the International Monetary Fund announced recently it would like to sell about 400 tonnes of gold, China joined India in publicly pressing the IMF to sell its entire 3200 tonne hoard. On that news the gold market, which had been in a slow slide as a result of the IMF's announcement, turned and took another run at the $1000 mark.

Second, by becoming gold's most prominent champion, China mounts an aggressive defense of its domestic gold mining industry, and by proxy the rest of the industry as well.

Few people know that over the last few years China has quietly become the world's leading gold producer.  Most of that production never leaves China's borders, but goes instead to the national reserves as a hedge against its currency holdings. China, by the simple expedient of defending its own interest, accomplishes much for the gold mining industry as a whole. By posing as a gold buyer of last resort, ready, willing and able to scoop up any sizable offer, China may have very well put a floor under the market price, though we are too early in the game at this juncture to predict what that price might be. There is no question, however, that China has put a floor under long term gold market expectations. One would have to go back to the first Central Bank Gold Agreement in 1999, which strictly limited the sale and leasing of central bank gold, to find an equivalent organized effort in defence of the long term price trend.  Many feel that the original CBGA launched the current bull market in gold, and time will tell whether or not China's bold entry onto the gold scene will launch its second leg.

If you would like to broaden your view of gold market news and analysis, please feel welcome to join our free NewsGroup to receive by e-mail periodic gold news alerts, USAGOLD Market Updates, and relevant commentary like this one!

Third, by elevating gold to prominence in its national reserves, China lays the groundwork for the yuan's future use as a prominent reserve currency.

There is little doubt that China would like to make the yuan the currency of choice in the East and a strong measure of gold in its reserves would do much to enhance that possibility. For a comparative history, one would have to go all the way back to the late 1960s and the time of French president Charles DeGaulle. "The Last Great Frenchman" thought it best to hedge the national interest and elevate its future economic prospects by purchasing gold.  A substantial amount of metal subsequently left U.S. coffers for European national balance sheets including that of France. DeGaulle was later vindicated when gold rose twenty five times in dollar terms over a short ten year period from $35 an ounce to $875 (1971 to 1980). Some of that same gold would later play a key role in the establishment of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the euro, Europe's currency. China, by its recent actions, appears to have similar intentions both in terms of gold and the yuan.


In one fell swoop China has done much to alter the standing gold market synergy. When Congressman Mark Kirk announced China's desire to purchase gold during an interview with Fox News' Greta van Sustern, he noted "across across the board - in private - substantial, continuing and rising concern." Chinese leaders, he added, were sharply critical in private of the US Federal Reserve's policy of "quantitative easing," the modern equivalent of printing money. Kirk went on to say that rising concerns about the dollar and anticipated inflation had prompted China to: "[fund] a second strategic petroleum reserve and they plan to buy $80 billion worth of gold. . . Both of those investments only make sense if you expect significant dollar inflation."  

In the years to come, China will continue to steadily build its gold reserves through domestic production. It will also attempt to purchase whatever gold it can on the world market through official sector purchases or whatever additional means it finds at its disposal. In the process it will become the fire-breathing dragon in the gold market's living room - ubiquitous and formidable, a presence that cannot be ignored. At the same time, it will find itself in stiff competition for the available physical gold with an international public which harbors the very same concerns for their own portfolios that Chinese officials expressed to Representative Kirk. Few among gold's growing legions would disagree with China's logic, or its now publicly voiced desire to hedge a potentially disastrous collapse of the dollar.

Related reading: Is this the death of the dollar? by Edmund Conway/The Telegraph/June 20, 2009 - Important perspective

By Michael J. Kosares
Michael J. Kosares , founder and president
USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Denver

Michael Kosares has over 30 years experience in the gold business, and is the author of The ABCs of Gold Investing: How to Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold, and numerous magazine and internet articles and essays. He is frequently interviewed in the financial press and is well-known for his on-going commentary on the gold market and its economic, political and financial underpinnings.

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in commentary e do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

Michael J. Kosares Archive

© 2005-2016 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


gold purchase
16 Jul 09, 04:56

China says that the gold is a real money so it's a worth purchasing. so we sould purchase the gold as the future point of view. watch the free viedo clips on gold IRA-

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife