Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
How to Protect Your Site from Bots & Spam? - 20th Aug 19
Fed Too Late To Prevent A US Housing Market Crash? - 20th Aug 19
Gold and the Cracks in the U.S., Japan and Germany’s Economic Data - 20th Aug 19
The Gold Rush of 2019 - 20th Aug 19
How to Play Interest Rates in US Real Estate - 20th Aug 19
Stocks Likely to Breakout Instead of Gold - 20th Aug 19
Top 6 Tips to Attract Followers On SoundCloud - 20th Aug 19
WAYS TO SECURE YOUR FINANCIAL FUTURE - 20th Aug 19
Holiday Nightmares - Your Caravan is Missing! - 20th Aug 19
UK House Building and House Prices Trend Forecast - 20th Aug 19
The Next Stock Market Breakdown And The Setup - 20th Aug 19
5 Ways to Save by Using a Mortgage Broker - 20th Aug 19
Is This Time Different? Predictive Power of the Yield Curve and Gold - 19th Aug 19
New Dawn for the iGaming Industry in the United States - 19th Aug 19
Gold Set to Correct but Internals Remain Bullish - 19th Aug 19
Stock Market Correction Continues - 19th Aug 19
The Number One Gold Stock Of 2019 - 19th Aug 19
The State of the Financial Union - 18th Aug 19
The Nuts and Bolts: Yield Inversion Says Recession is Coming But it May take 24 months - 18th Aug 19
Markets August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready? - 18th Aug 19
JOHNSON AND JOHNSON - JNJ for Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 17th Aug 19
Negative Bond Market Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Stock Market Leadership - 17th Aug 19
Is Stock Market About to Crash? Three Charts That Suggest It’s Possible - 17th Aug 19
It’s Time For Colombia To Dump The Peso - 17th Aug 19
Gold & Silver Stand Strong amid Stock Volatility & Falling Rates - 16th Aug 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Fundamentals - 16th Aug 19
Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next? - 16th Aug 19
When the US Bond Market Bubble Blows Up! - 16th Aug 19
Dark days are closing in on Apple - 16th Aug 19
Precious Metals Gone Wild! Reaching Initial Targets – Now What’s Next - 16th Aug 19
US Government Is Beholden To The Fed; And Vice-Versa - 15th Aug 19
GBP vs USD Forex Pair Swings Into Focus Amid Brexit Chaos - 15th Aug 19
US Negative Interest Rates Go Mainstream - With Some Glaring Omissions - 15th Aug 19
GOLD BULL RUN TREND ANALYSIS - 15th Aug 19
US Stock Market Could Fall 12% to 25% - 15th Aug 19
A Level Exam Results School Live Reaction Shock 2019! - 15th Aug 19
It's Time to Get Serious about Silver - 15th Aug 19
The EagleFX Beginners Guide – Financial Markets - 15th Aug 19
Central Banks Move To Keep The Global Markets Party Rolling – Part III - 14th Aug 19
You Have to Buy Bonds Even When Interest Rates Are Low - 14th Aug 19
Gold Near Term Risk is Increasing - 14th Aug 19
Installment Loans vs Personal Bank Loans - 14th Aug 19
ROCHE - RHHBY Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 14th Aug 19
Gold Bulls Must Love the Hong Kong Protests - 14th Aug 19
Gold, Markets and Invasive Species - 14th Aug 19
Cannabis Stocks With Millennial Appeal - 14th Aug 19
August 19 (Crazy Ivan) Stock Market Event Only A Few Days Away - 13th Aug 19
This is the real move in gold and silver… it’s going to be multiyear - 13th Aug 19
Global Central Banks Kick Can Down The Road Again - 13th Aug 19
US Dollar Finally the Achillles Heel - 13th Aug 19
Financial Success Formula Failure - 13th Aug 19
How to Test Your Car Alternator with a Multimeter - 13th Aug 19
London Under Attack! Victoria Embankment Gardens Statues and Monuments - 13th Aug 19
More Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 12th Aug 19
Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling Onward - 12th Aug 19
All Eyes On Copper - 12th Aug 19
History of Yield Curve Inversions and Gold - 12th Aug 19
Precious Metals Soar on Falling Yields, Currency Turmoil - 12th Aug 19
Why GraphQL? The Benefits Explained - 12th Aug 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The No 1 Gold Stock for 2019

Treat Any Stock Market Weakness as a Buying Opportunity

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market Sep 02, 2009 - 07:49 PM GMT

By: Money_and_Markets

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleClaus Vogt writes:  The seasonal market statistics are clear: September has historically been the worst month for stocks of the year. Plus it’s followed by October, the month of the most spectacular stock market crashes in history.

This is why many bears — who have actually gotten more visible again during the past few weeks — say it’s time to get out of the market now.


These seasonal stock market statistics are certainly true. And after the strong gains since the July interim low, the market is due for a correction.

So the market may pull back a bit in the short term. But I don’t see it being more than a correction.

In fact, if stocks do go down during the next few weeks, you should probably consider that a buying opportunity.

Here are my arguments for that medium-term bullish view …

During This Phase of the Business Cycle Fundamentals Do Not Matter …

To begin with, I want to put into perspective the power of bearish arguments based on the state of the economy.

First, during this phase of the business cycle — that is at the end of a recession or the beginning of a new economic uptrend — fundamentals do not matter for the financial markets. That’s because they’re mainly liquidity driven and based on hope, not on facts.

The gloomy state of the economy doesn't mean a lot to the markets right now.
The gloomy state of the economy doesn’t mean a lot to the markets right now.

Moreover, economic data are a mixed bag at best. So the bulls and the bears can pick whatever news underlines their respective arguments. Only later during the cycle do fundamentals have to pick up to replace hope with facts. If they don’t, the bear will return.

Second, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose four months in a row, finally crossing the zero line in July with a reading of 0.2 percent. This indicator has an excellent track record of calling important turning points in the economy. Right now it’s indicating the end of the recession. So there’s a good and historically valid reason for the above mentioned hope for some kind of a recovery.

Third, the stock market has a shorter time horizon than most of the fundamentally-based bearish arguments. So they’re not important now, but will start to matter later. And I expect the LEI and other time-proven indicators to warn us before this time arrives. Therefore, during the next three or four quarters I cannot see how the economy could collapse again, especially after all the recent massive worldwide stimulus programs.

Fourth, the stock market can ignore fundamental headwinds for a very long time. Fundamentals are long-term drivers of the financial markets. They have no short-to-medium-term predictive value. The very strong momentum of the current stock market rally gives you a clear hint that this rally has the power to ignore a lot of bad news for some time to come.

Plus …

The Market’s Technical Signals Are Pointing to Strength …

Some medium-term bullish developments have taken place during the past weeks and months. You’ll see in the chart below, a very clear bottoming formation with a technically strong upside breakout.

S&P 500, Volume, Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) 2008 — 2009

S&P 500 Large Cap Index

Source: www.decisionpoint.com

Let me explain the specifics in this chart, plus a few other technical indicators that aren’t shown …

First, most major indexes show very solid chart patterns. Take the S&P 500 as an example. You can see a nice bottoming formation, which started to develop in October 2007. The breakout, which happened this July, is a clear medium-term buying signal.

It indicates a medium-term trend change from down to up. The formation is an inverse head and shoulders, one of the most reliable patterns.

Second, coming off of the March 2009 low, momentum indicators (the rate of acceleration of price or volume) shown as PMO in the above chart, reached extremely overbought levels. This is typically a sign of impulse or a kick-off move.

Third, the breakout above the neckline of the bottom formation (950-955 in the S&P 500) was accompanied by very good market breadth (the number of stocks advancing relative to the number declining). This indicates a broad-based uptrend with most stocks and sectors participating.

Fourth, the advance-decline line and the advance-decline volume line both made distinct new highs for the year thus validating the new medium-term uptrend.

Fifth, two important indicators fell in line with the message of a new medium-term up trend: The 200-day moving average (MA200) changed course and started to rise. And the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) crossed the 200-day exponential moving average.

Sixth, longer-term sentiment indicators show that this rally is greeted by remarkable skepticism. Bull markets climb the proverbial wall of worry. This wall seems to be in a healthy condition.

What This Means For You …

Look at market drops as buying opportunities.
Look at market drops as buying opportunities.

History shows that financial markets move in prolonged trends and can ignore fundamentals for a long time. And now the technical pictures of stock markets all over the world clearly show medium-term bullish patterns. They indicate a nascent uptrend and are usually followed by further gains.

In hindsight, technical indicators are telling us that a medium-term bull market had started at the March lows. So from now on, bull market rules apply. And the most important rule is: In bull markets, corrections are buying opportunities.

Best wishes,

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets . Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com .

Money and Markets Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

PHarris
04 Sep 09, 15:56
Talk about capitulation!

Talk about capitulation! Contrast this with what the author wrote in February...

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8772.html


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules