Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Gold Soaring Towards $1200 Target

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Nov 24, 2009 - 01:03 AM GMT

By: Aden_Forecast

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold is soaring, hitting new record highs almost daily. This C rise is going strong. Our initial $1200 target level for this year's rise has nearly been reached, but gold could go higher.

This is good news for all of us who have been invested in gold for the past eight years. But even for those of you who invested in more recent times, gold has been a good and profitable investment.


We feel strongly that this will continue in the months and years ahead. And there are many valid reasons why.

Most important, the unprecedented monetary policy currently in force is inflationary. The same is true of the weak U.S. dollar, negative interest rates, rising oil and commodities. Gold buying by central banks is also boosting the gold price higher.

Even though gold is still relatively unknown in mainstream investment circles, it's starting to attract some attention. As this interest grows, momentum buying will pick up and the exchange traded funds are another big positive, simply because they make it easy to buy gold. The improving economy is another positive factor.

SOME CALM AFTER THE STORM

Yes, there are problems.... serious problems. But that doesn't mean the world is going to fall apart next month or next year.

Pessimists are always going to paint the worst case scenario. Optimists will forever present the best case scenario. The reality is usually somewhere in between. But the markets and the facts always tell the story and that's what we try to focus on. So what are they currently telling us?

First, despite all that's happening, it's important to put things into perspective... and looking back, the overall situation was a lot worse last year compared to how it is now.

Remember, the entire financial world was on the verge of collapse last year as one huge company after another failed, or came close to it. Economies worldwide were dropping and so were all of the global stock markets. Fear and panic were rampant, and with reason. The crisis wiped out a greater chunk of household wealth than during the Great Depression. No one knew what to do...

Now fast forward to today...

For starters, nearly every economy in the world is growing, some obviously more than others. But the point is, they're all up. Stocks around the globe have also been rising this year and confidence is returning.

In the U.S., for instance, the economy grew 3½% in the third quarter. The leading economic indicator has been up for seven consecutive months and stocks, which lead the economy, have been rising for eight months. Manufacturing is on the mend, along with other important economic signs, all showing that the recession ended in June and the economy is now on its way up, albeit slowly.

In other countries, growth has been far more robust. In China, for example, the economy is growing at a 9% rate. So Korea is growing at the fastest pace in seven years. India is going strong, the same is true in most of Asia, Brazil, and to a lesser extent, Europe is improving too.

2009: Great gains

So far, based on 18 of the world's major stock markets, the gains this year have ranged between 11% and 92%. The average has been 31%. So even though the Dow Industrials is only up about 14%, the global stock markets are all telling us that ongoing growth lies ahead.

Since the markets look to the future, if that were not the case, these markets would be falling, not rising.

Okay, but what about commodities? The CRB commodity index has gained 24% this year. More impressive, copper has soared 101% and it's known as the global economic market barometer.

Oil has also surged. It's gained 75%. Very simply, if these two key commodities were not in big demand due to improving world economies, they wouldn't be rising the way they are. Instead, they too would be falling.

The main point is... these are not signs of recession and they're certainly not signaling a depression. In fact, they're telling us that deflation is not currently a concern.

On the contrary, these rising prices are more indicative of inflation downstream. That's especially true considering the weak dollar.

HOLD GOLD

Again and very simply, in a healthy economy annual deficits shouldn't be more than 3% of GDP. Once this percentage exceeds 5-6%, the currency of the country involved historically falls sharply.

Currently, this percentage has soared to about 10% in the U.S. and unfortunately, that pretty much puts the nails in the dollar's coffin. This alone will propel gold much higher.

These are the key reasons why we continue to recommend buying and holding gold. Whatever the ultimate, longer-term outcome, it's pretty clear that the situation is going to intensify and as it does, gold is going to be the main beneficiary and its bull market will endure well into the years ahead. That's been the case for thousands of years during times of economic uncertainty and gross imbalances, and it's now happening again.

Note that gold rose 56% and 58%, respectively, in the last two C rises (see Chart). So far, gold has risen 32% in the current C rise. Plus, its leading indicator still has room to rise further before it reaches the temporarily "too high" area. Since this rise is powerful, the gains this time around could be similar to those in 2006 and 2008. And if they are, gold could continue up to near the $1350 level before this C rise is over.

We'll be watching closely but for now, hold on to all of your metals related investments. Silver and gold shares are also surging, and so are most of the other metals. Silver is at a new 16 month high and it too is approaching our first target area. Gold and silver will both remain super strong above $1070 and $17.20.

By Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

www.adenforecast.com

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.c


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules