Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Is This Time Different? Predictive Power of the Yield Curve and Gold - 19th Aug 19
New Dawn for the iGaming Industry in the United States - 19th Aug 19
Gold Set to Correct but Internals Remain Bullish - 19th Aug 19
Stock Market Correction Continues - 19th Aug 19
The Number One Gold Stock Of 2019 - 19th Aug 19
The State of the Financial Union - 18th Aug 19
The Nuts and Bolts: Yield Inversion Says Recession is Coming But it May take 24 months - 18th Aug 19
Markets August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready? - 18th Aug 19
JOHNSON AND JOHNSON - JNJ for Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 17th Aug 19
Negative Bond Market Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Stock Market Leadership - 17th Aug 19
Is Stock Market About to Crash? Three Charts That Suggest It’s Possible - 17th Aug 19
It’s Time For Colombia To Dump The Peso - 17th Aug 19
Gold & Silver Stand Strong amid Stock Volatility & Falling Rates - 16th Aug 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Fundamentals - 16th Aug 19
Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next? - 16th Aug 19
When the US Bond Market Bubble Blows Up! - 16th Aug 19
Dark days are closing in on Apple - 16th Aug 19
Precious Metals Gone Wild! Reaching Initial Targets – Now What’s Next - 16th Aug 19
US Government Is Beholden To The Fed; And Vice-Versa - 15th Aug 19
GBP vs USD Forex Pair Swings Into Focus Amid Brexit Chaos - 15th Aug 19
US Negative Interest Rates Go Mainstream - With Some Glaring Omissions - 15th Aug 19
GOLD BULL RUN TREND ANALYSIS - 15th Aug 19
US Stock Market Could Fall 12% to 25% - 15th Aug 19
A Level Exam Results School Live Reaction Shock 2019! - 15th Aug 19
It's Time to Get Serious about Silver - 15th Aug 19
The EagleFX Beginners Guide – Financial Markets - 15th Aug 19
Central Banks Move To Keep The Global Markets Party Rolling – Part III - 14th Aug 19
You Have to Buy Bonds Even When Interest Rates Are Low - 14th Aug 19
Gold Near Term Risk is Increasing - 14th Aug 19
Installment Loans vs Personal Bank Loans - 14th Aug 19
ROCHE - RHHBY Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 14th Aug 19
Gold Bulls Must Love the Hong Kong Protests - 14th Aug 19
Gold, Markets and Invasive Species - 14th Aug 19
Cannabis Stocks With Millennial Appeal - 14th Aug 19
August 19 (Crazy Ivan) Stock Market Event Only A Few Days Away - 13th Aug 19
This is the real move in gold and silver… it’s going to be multiyear - 13th Aug 19
Global Central Banks Kick Can Down The Road Again - 13th Aug 19
US Dollar Finally the Achillles Heel - 13th Aug 19
Financial Success Formula Failure - 13th Aug 19
How to Test Your Car Alternator with a Multimeter - 13th Aug 19
London Under Attack! Victoria Embankment Gardens Statues and Monuments - 13th Aug 19
More Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 12th Aug 19
Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling Onward - 12th Aug 19
All Eyes On Copper - 12th Aug 19
History of Yield Curve Inversions and Gold - 12th Aug 19
Precious Metals Soar on Falling Yields, Currency Turmoil - 12th Aug 19
Why GraphQL? The Benefits Explained - 12th Aug 19
Is the Stock Market Making a V-shaped Recovery? - 11th Aug 19
Precious Metals and Stocks VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan” - 11th Aug 19
Social Media Civil War - 11th Aug 19
Gold and the Bond Yield Continuum - 11th Aug 19
Traders: Which Markets Should You Trade? - 11th Aug 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The No 1 Gold Stock for 2019

Stock Market Indexes Confirm Strength into 2010

Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis Dec 02, 2009 - 04:32 AM GMT

By: Jim_Curry

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGoing back to the mid-July period of 2009, the time cycle work that I track had confirmed the 07/08/09 low as a combination bottom with the 45 and 90-day cycles. Using a statistical analysis of the larger 90-day component, the probabilities favored that this particular cycle would not see it's following peak made prior to the late-September or early-October period - and thus the assumption was that the SPX was headed toward the low-1100 level or better into October.


After moving into the October, 2009 period, there was then a larger combination bottom with both the 90 and 180-day components that was due around mid-November, but with a plus or minus of approximately 2 weeks in either direction - due to the variance larger 180-day cycle. In terms of price, a normal 90/180-day downward phase will usually see a decline of 10%-or-better off the top - and thus the expectation was for a potential decline in this range before our larger combination low was finished. The actual decline ended up being in the range of 6.5%, which fell short of expectations - possibly due to the positive seasonality.

Key resistance for the month of November was noted at or near the 1069 level on a closing basis - which was the monthly projected resistance high for the SPX CASH index. When prices closed on this figure at the closing of trading on 11/06/09, then there was the potential for our 90 and 180-day combination bottom to be in place; this was then confirmed the very next trading session.

With the above, our larger 90 and 180-day combination wave is now deemed to be headed upward into January of 2010, as shown on the updated forecast wave below:

Even with our larger bottom confirmed in place on 11/9/09, in our daily outlooks I did note that a secondary low would likely be seen in the late-November timeframe - due to a nominal 20-day cycle that was projected to bottom near the November 27th period. The minor cycle forecast chart (below) suggested this low well ahead of time:

The expectation for the downward phase of the 20-day component is that it would see a retracement back to or below the 18-day moving average - which this cycle will do better than 95% of the time before bottoming out.

Right now, the minor cycle forecast is looking for continued strength in the coming days. This minor cycle forecast is essentially unchanged from what it was projecting back in September, and the market has followed the roadmap extremely well since this time.

Stepping back, the basic suggestion for the mid-term picture is for higher highs to be made into January, 2010. There is an outstanding upside target from the 45-day cycle to the 1130.09 - 1153.63 level on the SPX; this range is also likely to be the area that tops this same 45-day component.

For the longer-term, the key figure for the SPX is the 1122 level (closing basis). That number is the approximate 50% retracement of the entire move down from the October, 2007 high to the March, 2009 bottom. That is, it will take a firm daily close above this level for the larger 90 and 180-day cycles to gain momentum into the Spring of 2010 (where the 180-day component is next set to peak). Otherwise, holding below the same will continue to keep the action very choppy (sideways) for the near-term.

Stepping back even further, 2010 is setting up for what should be a very important peak - one that should top the entire countertrend retracement off the March, 2009 bottom. That top should then give way to an eventual breach of the 666.79 low on the SPX - ideally to move on down to a longer-term 'swing support' area at the 580-620 level on this index. There is a much-larger 36-year wave that is projected to bottom in the late-2010 timeframe - but which could easily stretch out into 2011 or 2012, simply based on the very large average variance with this particular cycle. More on this in a future article.

By Jim Curry
Market Turns Advisory
email: jcurry@cycle-wave.com
website: http://cyclewave.homestead.com

Jim Curry is the editor and publisher of Market Turns advisory, which specializes in using cyclical analysis to time the markets. To be added to our mailing list click HERE

Disclaimer - The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solely
for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable,
but there is no guarantee that future results will be profitable. The methods used to form opinions are highly probable and as you follow them for some time you
can gain confidence in them. The market can and will do the unexpected, use the sell stops provided to assist in risk avoidance. Not responsible for errors or
omissions. Copyright 1998-2007, Jim Curry

JIm Curry Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

TraderJoe
02 Dec 09, 09:53
Cycles?
Jim Are you moving the cycles to fit the subsquent price action ? What you put up 3 weeks ago


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules