Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Due for 9-10% Pull Back? - 25th April 19
Dow Transportation Stocks Sector Is Testing Resistance - 25th April 19
INSOMNIA i64 UK Best Games Festival Vlog of What it's Like to Attend - 2019 - 25th April 19
In Just 45 Mins., Learn to Spot New Opportunities in ANY Market for FREE! - 25th April 19
If This Pattern Holds True, the US Economy Could Face the Worst Stagnation in History - 25th April 19
8 Reasons Why Investment in Education Always Pays Off - 25th April 19
Want To Earn A Safe 5% In Fixed Income? Buy Preferred Stocks - 24th April 19
Can Gold Price Rise Without a Rate Cut?  - 24th April 19
Silver’s Next Big Move - 24th April 19
How Can a College Student Invest Wisely? - 24th April 19
Prepare For Unknown Stock Market Price Action As New Highs Are Reached - 23rd April 19
Silver Plays a Small but Vital Role in Every Portfolio - 23rd April 19
Forecasting 2020s : Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, and Japan-Like Flat Markets - 23rd April 19
Gold and Silver Give Traders Another Buying Opportunity - 23rd April 19
Stock Market Pause Should Extend - 21st April 19
Why Gold Has Been the Second Best Asset Class for the Last 20 Years - 21st April 19
Could Taxing the Rich Solve Income Inequality? - 21st April 19
Stock Market Euphoria Stunts Gold - 20th April 19
Is Political Partisanship Killing America? - 20th April 19
Trump - They Were All Lying - 20th April 19
The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” - 19th April 19
Growing Bird of Paradise Strelitzia Plants, Pruning and Flower Guide Over 4 Years - 19th April 19
S&P 500’s Downward Reversal or Just Profit-Taking Action? - 18th April 19
US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility - 18th April 19
Intel Corporation (INTC) Bullish Structure Favors More Upside - 18th April 19
Low New Zealand Inflation Rate Increases Chance of a Rate Cut - 18th April 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top 10 AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Foot and Mouth Outbreak to Hit FTSE 100 Index

Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market Aug 04, 2007 - 07:19 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Latest reports suggest that the Foot and Mouth virus strain to hit the UK on Thursday is one that is NOT normally found in animals and is linked to vaccines. The strain is thought to originate from the Institute for Animal Health just three miles from the outbreak farm.

The last out break of Foot and Mouth disease in the UK in 2001 cost the Economy an estimated £10 billion ($20 billion) with the agricultural and tourism sectors of the economy hit hard. The government at the time was accused of gross incompetence in the handling of the crisis which saw the destruction of more than 6 million animals and closure of much of the British countryside as well as export bans.


The New Prime Minister Gordon Brown, fully aware of the previous disastrous response has moved at speed to ensure that the outbreak can be contained. It will be some days before the measures taken can be seen to be effective or not in containment. However it can hardly be reassuring that hours after Gordon Brown promised that Experts were working night and day to contain the virus, are also responsible for the outbreak.

The Stock Market sectors expected to be hit as the market prices in the 'worst case' scenerio will be farming, food, tourism, bookmaking (due to cancellation of sporting events) and related transportation such as airlines. The markdown may prove temporary if containment is confirmed during the following 2 weeks, if no new cases are found. However if containment fails and something similar to 2001 occurs, then the sectors could be hit for well over 6 months if not going into 2008. The last outbreak lasted 7 months and it took another four months for the UK to be declared free of foot and mouth disease.

The 2001 Foot and Mouth Outbreak saw the FTSE 100 index fall from 6100 to a low of 4200 or 45%. Whilst obviously the entire fall cannot be attributed to Foot and Mouth as the FTSE was in a bear market at the time. It was a contributory factor in the reinforcement of the overall negative sentiment.

Therefore we can take the cue that as long as outbreak remains un contained then it will be an increasingly negative contributory factor in the trend of the FTSE 100 Index. The expectations were already for the FTSE to be in a summer correction which targeted a low above 6000. An outbreak similar to 2001 would target a break of 6000.

Related Articles

By Nadeem Walayat
(c) Marketoracle.co.uk 2005-07. All rights reserved.

The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 100 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules