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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Trend Forecast 2010 Updated and Related Market Ratios

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 May 13, 2010 - 07:05 AM GMT

By: David_Petch

Commodities

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe daily chart of the Canadian dollar index is shown below, with the lower 55 MA Bollinger band falling beneath the lower 55 MA Bollinger band, suggestive that a bottom of some degree has been put in place. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. Given the sharp decline in the Canadian dollar the past few weeks, expect another 1-2 weeks of basing before any move up commences.


Figure 1


The daily chart of the Australian dollar index is shown below, with the index falling beneath the lower 55 MA Bollinger band, suggestive that a bottom is in place of some degree. Upper Bollinger bands are all in close proximity to each other, suggestive that another 2-3 weeks of sideways price action is likely before the present consolidation is complete. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. Extrapolation of the %K in stochastics 1 and 2 suggest another 2-3 weeks of continued weakness.

Figure 2


The daily chart of the Euro is shown below, with upper Bollinger bands rising...when they start to curl over, a bottom of some degree will be put in place. All three lower Bollinger bands are riding the index lower, suggestive that further downside potential exists. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in 1 and 2 and above the %D in 3. Extrapolation of the %K trend suggests another 1-2 weeks of further downside before basing.

Figure 3


US Dollar Index

The Daily chart of the USD index is shown below, with the upper 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands riding the index higher. If the USD begins to peter out at this point, then a short term top will have been put in  place. The lower 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands are starting to curl up (in close proximity to each other, suggestive that a short-term top is looming. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in 1 and 2 and beneath the %D in 3. Extrapolation of the %K in stochastics 1 and 2 suggest another 1-2 weeks of potential upside. Once the %K in stochastic 1 falls beneath the %D, a top will have been put in place.

Figure 4


The weekly chart of the USD index is shown below, with all three upper Bollinger bands starting to rise above the index, suggestive that further upside potential exists. The lower 55 MA Bollinger band is starting to curl down, suggestive the upward trend in the USD remains intact. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in all three instances. Extrapolation of the %K in stochastics 2 and 3 suggest the USD could experience further upside for another 4-6 months.

Figure 5


The monthly chart of the USD index is shown below, with lower Bollinger bands rising off the lows of the 68-70 range, confirming over six months ago that the 2008 lows would hold. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in 1 and above the %D in 2 and 3. Notice the %K in stochastic 1 curling up and the %K in stochastic 3 is still rising strong. The monthly chart suggests the upward trend in the USD has at least 4-6 months of continued upside potential before topping out.

Figure 6


The short-term Elliott Wave count of the USD index is shown below, with the thought patterns forming back in February still illustrated. The only way to accurately label this count is to have wave (2) as a running correction. If true, the USD top lies somewhere between 94-96. At present, wave 1.(3) is still in force, so expect a retracement of the upward move by at least 38.2-50%. At present, at top in wave 1 could be due in 2-4 days time.

Figure 7


The mid-term Elliott Wave count of the USD index is shown below, with the thought pattern forming shown below in green. The count shown below has a large flat structure forming, with wave [C] currently underway. We have been following this pattern for the past 6-8 months and if the trend continues, expect the USD to continue a sharp advance over the course of the next 4-8 months. Once a top is put in place, the USD will be high relative to most currencies, which will affect exporting ability and throw the US back into a recession. Other countries will have to pay more for gold and oil, which will affect economic output. The cause of the next global recession is going to be currency based to start with, followed by further debt defaults and another run on the banks. As the Captain pointed out, expect the serial bailouts to continue, with the next major expenses to become the pension funds. The likely scenario for this will either be many companies going bankrupt to lower their pension obligations, or rules regarding pension contributions etc. To be rewritten. Don't think this is possible, here in Manitoba, we had balanced budget legislation in place, but this year Manitoba had a 600 million dollar deficit. So what did our Provincial government do?...they removed the balanced budget legislation. Politicians will do whatever works for them, not the good of the people. Instead of allowing a little bit of pain and force a reduction in the number of government employees, the days of pain have been postponed for later on this decade.

Figure 8



I will update the XOI tonight and  Horizon Beta funds tomorrow AM. Have a great day.

Have a good day and back later on tonight.

By David Petch

http://www.treasurechests.info

I generally try to write at least one editorial per week, although typically not as long as this one. At www.treasurechests.info , once per week (with updates if required), I track the Amex Gold BUGS Index, AMEX Oil Index, US Dollar Index, 10 Year US Treasury Index and the S&P 500 Index using various forms of technical analysis, including Elliott Wave. Captain Hook the site proprietor writes 2-3 articles per week on the “big picture” by tying in recent market action with numerous index ratios, money supply, COT positions etc. We also cover some 60 plus stocks in the precious metals, energy and base metals categories (with a focus on stocks around our provinces).

With the above being just one example of how we go about identifying value for investors, if this is the kind of analysis you are looking for we invite you to visit our site and discover more about how our service can further aid in achieving your financial goals. In this regard, whether it's top down macro-analysis designed to assist in opinion shaping and investment policy, or analysis on specific opportunities in the precious metals and energy sectors believed to possess exceptional value, like mindedly at Treasure Chests we in turn strive to provide the best value possible. So again, pay us a visit and discover why a small investment on your part could pay you handsome rewards in the not too distant future.

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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities as we are not registered brokers or advisors. Certain statements included herein may constitute "forward-looking statements" with the meaning of certain securities legislative measures. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the above mentioned companies, and / or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Do your own due diligence.

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