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Crude Oil Key Reversal Week Makes Bulls See Red

Commodities / Crude Oil May 14, 2010 - 05:03 AM GMT

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis year’s bull run, from an early Feb low, formerly held the promise of a more sustained move. But a recent negative Key Reversal Week is ignored at ones peril – these can be very good signals – and certain support points must now be closely monitored.


The Commodity Specialist view

BRENT CRUDE WEEKLY CHART - CONTINUATION:

The Key Reversal Week was seen just ahead of the long term 50% recovery level.

In common with other oil markets (Gasoil, NYMEX Light Crude, Heating Oil) initial support has come from the 23.6% retracement on the continuation chart, with break below to be the next bear sign.

Note how the lower 38.2% pullback level lies near to the Feb low – the starting point for a final move sometimes ends up coinciding with the 38.2% level…

BRENT CRUDE DAILY CHART – JUL-10:

Initial support for the sell-off came from this year’s 61.8% pullback level, although more key is currently the 75.35 76.4% area, where a bull channel base projection also passes through – a break of this would be a negative momentum signal.

This would come on top of a break of the 77.00 23.6% area on the Weekly chart, reinforcing a growing negative picture.

Because of the key reversal week there is a better chance that s/term rallies will prove temporary, offering opportunities for sellers.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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