Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun - 25th May 24
Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes - 25th May 24
Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs - 25th May 24
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 24
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger - 24th May 24
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors - 24th May 24
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk - 24th May 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24
Micro Strategy Bubble Mania - 10th May 24
Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports - 10th May 24
Bitcoin Price Swings Analysis - 9th May 24
Could Chinese Gold Be the Straw That Breaks the Dollar's Back? - 9th May 24
The Federal Reserve Is Broke! - 9th May 24
The Elliott Wave Crash Course - 9th May 24
Psychologically Prepared for Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pull Corrections 2024 - 8th May 24
Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now - 8th May 24
Copper: The India Factor - 8th May 24
Gold 2008 and 2022 All Over Again? Stocks, USDX - 8th May 24
Holocaust Survivor States Israel is Like Nazi Germany, The Fourth Reich - 8th May 24
Fourth Reich Invades Rafah Concentration Camp To Kill Palestinian Children - 8th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

FTSE 100 Index Forecast for Sept 2007 - Crash in the Financial Sector

Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market Sep 05, 2007 - 10:31 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

FTSE 100 rally from the recent lows appears to have ended and is signaling a third leg of the down trend that targets a new low for the year for the FTSE 100 Index. This is on the back of the continuing crash in the financial sector due to the ongoing Subprime sparked credit crunch.

Technical Analysis of the FTSE 100 Index


FTSE 100 Index Forecast for Sept 2007 - Crash in the Financial Sector

1. Trend Analysis - The Break below 6000 changed the dynamics of the anticipated summer correction into something far more severe. The current rally towards 6400 although strong is seen as being corrective and in advance of a third leg down. The question mark from a trend perspective is whether the 5821 level will hold for a double bottom or not. The recent break of 6000 has weakened the bull market. However, first things first, trend analysis targets a move back towards the 5821, a break of which would target a downtrend to 5500.

2. Time Analysis - The third leg down should be longer in duration than the first leg down, as the market would require more time to build a base, therefore signals a downtrend that is expected to continue into Mid October at least.

3. Elliott Wave Analysis - The previous elliott wave analysis of the FTSE implied a larger magnitude downtrend than originally anticipated, which is being confirmed by the unfolding price action. The chart shows a completed A wave to 5821 and the current rally as a B wave which confirms expectations of a third leg C wave lower, that is expected to break the A wave low, for an ABC pattern. The target for the decline is again 5500.

4. MACD Indicator - The MACD gave a very bearish signal with a break of the June 06 lows, which suggests at the least that the MACD will revisit the -100 area. The corrective up trend was from extreme oversold levels, which has taken the FTSE towards 6400. This has helped to work out the MACD's oversold state which means that FTSE 100 Index increasingly now looks vulnerable to continuing the downtrend towards 5821.

Summary - The FTSE 100 Index is expected to resume the downtrend towards a target of 5821. Depending on whether it breaks or not will determine the stock market trend for some time. At this point in time, probability marginally favors a break of 5821 and a trend towards 5500, therefore credit crunch bad news is far from over !

By Nadeem Walayat
(c) Marketoracle.co.uk 2005-07. All rights reserved.

The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 100 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in