Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - Jeff_Berwick
2.Fragile Stock Market Bull in a China Shop -James_Quinn
3.Sheffield Leafy Suburbs Tree Felling's Triggering House Prices CRASH! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Bank of England Hikes UK Interest Rates 100%, Reversing BREXIT PANIC Cut! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Government Finances and Gold - Cautionary Tale told in Four Charts - Michael_J_Kosares
6.Gold Stocks Winter Rally - Zeal_LLC
7.The Stock Market- From Here to Infinity? - Plunger
8.Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - MarketsToday
9.Electronic Gold: The Deep State’s Corrupt Threat to Human Prosperity and Freedom - Stewart_Dougherty
10.Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - Jim_Willie_CB
Last 7 days
Stock Market Final Thrust is Likely - 17th Dec 17
Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here’s a Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard - 17th Dec 17
As Bitcoin Breaks All-Time Highs Near $18,000 Its Future Has Never Been So Uncertain - 17th Dec 17
Best Time / Month to Buy a Used Car From a UK Dealer - 16th Dec 17
Relief Rally in Gold Mining Stocks - 16th Dec 17
Amid Bad Fundamentals, Gold Sector Rally May Have Begun - 16th Dec 17
Gold Bullish on US Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Dec 17
The LORAX Explains What Happened to Sheffield's Street Trees 2017 - 16th Dec 17
Bitcoin Trading Alert: Bitcoin Pauses – Will Appreciation Follow? - 16th Dec 17
SanDisk Ultra 128gb 100mbs Micro SD Card for Smartphone's Speed Test - 15th Dec 17
Inflation is Spiking Globally… Bond Bubble Bursts in 3… 2… - 15th Dec 17
Sheffield's 'Real' LORAX Defending the Trees From the Labour City Council Patrol Units - 15th Dec 17
Stock Market Decline Signals are Near - 15th Dec 17
Santa Is Putting Christmas On The Blockchain And Saving Billions - 14th Dec 17
The Unprotected, the Protected, the Vulnerably Protected Classes—Which Are You? - 14th Dec 17
Gold’s Upside Target - 14th Dec 17
Year-end US Interest Rate Hike Again Proves To Be Launchpad For Gold Price - 14th Dec 17
2 Charts That Might Define the Fed’s Jerome Powell Era - 13th Dec 17
UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall - 13th Dec 17
Stock Market Elliott Wave Forecasts - Is the World coming to the end? - 13th Dec 17
A Method Traders Can Use to Confirm an Elliott Wave Count - 13th Dec 17
Best Time / Month of Year to BUY a USED Car is DECEMBER, UK Analysis - 13th Dec 17
A Former Wall Street Veteran: Good Traders Are Born, Not Trained - 12th Dec 17
Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts to Continue? - 12th Dec 17
Masters of Economic and Political Illusion – in Taxes, Debt, Government, and Markets - 12th Dec 17
Approved Used Land Rover Main Dealer Real Customer Buying Guide - Hunters, Chester - 12th Dec 17
Gold Price 100% Bullish Signal - 12th Dec 17
Epic Stock Market & Fixed Income Bubble Will Not End Well - 12th Dec 17
Bitcoin can be stolen. Although Can’t be hacked - 11th Dec 17
Have Stocks Reached A Permanently Rigged Plateau? - 11th Dec 17
Trying To Beat The System Is A Fatally Flawed Investment Strategy - 11th Dec 17
Is This The Beginning Of The Next Silver Rush? - 11th Dec 17
The Dow Gold Ratio - 11th Dec 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Traders Workshop

Gold Price Manipulation Prior to Options Expiration Exposed

Commodities / Market Manipulation Jun 28, 2010 - 02:45 PM GMT

By: Jason_Hamlin

Commodities

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold futures expire today, June 28th. If you follow the manipulation theories, it is just prior to expiration time, either in futures or options, that paper shorts increase their net short positions in order to manipulate precious metals (and stocks) downward. This allows the manipulators to profit as the contracts they sold to unwitting investors expire worthless. The sudden drop in price also provides an opportunity for the shorts to cover their positions, profiting via paying back their creditors with lower priced gold or equities.


Investment banks and savvy traders riding their coattails have used this pattern to profit at the expense of honest traders that aren’t in the loop, as was detailed in the precious metals market by whistle-blower Andrew Maguire in March of this year. And despite the manipulation being meticulously explained to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and released to the press by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), nothing has been done to stop the manipulation or address the massive concentration of paper short positions by a few of the largest investment banks. But schemes of this nature tend to eventually fall apart one way or another, even if market regulators are bought off and completely lacking in the moral integrity necessary to do the right thing. Market forces have a way of re-asserting themselves, particularly when the scam is brought into the light.

In order to fact check some of Andrew Maguire’s claims and try to identify new trading opportunities, I decided to take a look at gold’s price action just prior to futures and options expiration since the start of the year to see if the charts (courtesy of Kitco) support the claims of manipulation.

Expiration Dates (CME Metals Calendar):
Gold Futures – The third to last business day of each delivery month is the last trading day (LTD).
Gold Options – The fourth business day prior to the first calendar day of the corresponding Gold futures delivery month.
Stock Options – The third Friday of the expiration month.

January 15 – Stock Options Expiration

Gold was trading above $1,150 on the January 12th (not shown on chart), but dropped $20 in the two days prior to options expiration. The $8 decline on options expiration Friday (green line) is pretty mild compared to the upcoming charts.

January 26 – Gold Options Expiration / January 27 – Gold Futures Expiration

Despite signs of investors once again buying the dip, gold was held below the key $1,100 level until after options expiration, closely the day at $1,099.40 (red line). Gold declined another $12 on futures expiration day (green line).

February 19 – Stock Options Expiration

Here we witness a 3-day roller-coaster ride leading up to stock options expiration in February. Gold dropped sharply $25 on the 17th, rebounded $25 on the 18th, before losing all of that gain again in the morning hours. Bulls look to have prevailed this time as gold advanced on options expiration Friday. Still, the price action suggests a fierce battle going on between buyers and sellers with huge price swings far exceeding typical daily volatility.

Feb 23 – Gold Options Expiration / Feb 24 – Gold Futures Expiration (LTD)

Again, we have two days of declines leading up to futures expiration day for gold. Notice how the price action was nearly identical during the two final days before expiration. Another $30 drop in 3 days with all of the action occurring during NYMEX trading hours.

March 19 – Stock Options Expiration

Gold lost another $30 in the 3 days prior to options expiration, including a vertical plunge of over $20 within just a few hours on options expiration Friday (green line). Coincidence perhaps, but certainly peculiar timing for the largest single-day decline during the month.

March 25 – Gold Options Expiration / March 29 – Gold Futures Expiration (LTD)

Gold was again pulled down (red line) and held below $1,100 (green line) for gold options expiration.

April 16 – Stock Options Expiration

Another $25 free fall shortly after 10am during New York trading. Surprise surprise. Noticing a trend yet?

April 27 – Gold Options Expiration / April 28 – Gold Futures Expiration (LTD)


Finally a month where the gold price advanced into futures expiration. It looked as if the gold price was about to decline on the 27th (red line), but it instead pushed $20 higher. This was also the first futures expiration after whistle-blower Andrew Maguire exposed the fraud. One could reasonably speculate that certain investment banks might have decided to back off their manipulation following the highly publicized CFTC hearing.

May 21 – Stock Options Expiration


Gold declined from a high of $1,220 on May 19th to just $1,177 on May 21st. That is a massive drop of $43 in just three days leading up to stock options expiration.

May 25 – Gold Options Expiration / May 26 – Gold Futures Expiration (LTD)


With gold already having been whacked by $43 in prior days, the objective leading up to futures options expiration seems to have been to keep the gold price under the $1,200 mark until the close of trading. Success! And within hours of futures options expiration, gold pushed through the $1,200 level and climbed to nearly $1,220.

June 18 – Stock Options Expiration


June marks the first month since the roller-coaster battle in February that gold did not suffer a sharp decline leading up to stock options expiration.

June 24 – Gold Options Expiration

It certainly appears that a take down of the gold price was attempted the day prior to gold options expiration (red line). But gold bounced back, buyers appeared and the gold price actually advanced modestly on the day of gold options expiration (green line), although the price was still held below $1,250 for expiration. I broke out this month’s futures expiration into a separate chart below.

June 28 – Gold Futures Expiration (LTD)

Ouch! On the last trading day for June futures, the price dropped by more than $25 in just two hours on NYMEX trading. Buyers appeared below $1,250 and again below $1,240, but the selling pressure was overwhelming.

Summary

The extreme concentration of paper short positions by 4 or fewer banks is certainly fishy and the charts above appear to support the manipulation claims of Andrew Maguire, GATA, Ted Butler, Jason Hommel and others. In the days leading up to expiration of gold futures and options, the gold price has routinely started to behave oddly and almost always managed to drop sharply prior to expiration.

As a trader, you can utilize the trend documented above in order to seek short-term trading opportunities. As a long-term investor, you should realize that the sharp sell-offs in precious metals just prior to expiration dates are likely manufactured and almost always short-lived. Therefore, don’t be a panic seller and play into their game. If you believe in the fundamentals and long-term prospects for gold, clutch your precious metals with strong hands and don’t let your emotions force you to sell at the wrong times. You will invariably have to buy back at higher prices, incur additional trading fees and create high levels of undue stress in the process. Remember, gold is nowhere near its inflation-adjusted high ($2,300 – $7,000 depending on the inflation numbers used) and has another 5-10 years compared to the duration of most historic bull markets.

The bottom line is that the manipulation (if it exists) can not be sustained for the long term. China, Russia, Iran, India, central banks and savvy investors around the world are buying up as much physical gold and silver as they can. The dips, whether manufactured or not, are being met with increasingly strong buying demand. Government and individuals are rightfully diversifying out of fiat paper assets and as big money begins to move into a relatively small precious metals market, demand is likely to overwhelm supply and push prices much higher. Stay the course and see the dips for what they truly are – buying opportunities.

By Jason Hamlin

http://www.goldstockbull.com/

Gold Stock Bull Premium Membership - If you would like to receive my monthly contrarian newsletter, view the Gold Stock Bull portfolio and receive email alerts whenever I am buying or selling, become a premium member today. You can try it out monthly at just $35 and cancel at anytime if you aren’t 100% satisfied. View the video introduction for more details or click here to get started now!

All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. The information on this site has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any information on this site without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

dincer
28 Jun 10, 16:46
US' Gold Holding Decline

When FDR revalued gold to $35/ounce at the beginning of 1934, US M2 money supply was 32.2 billion, whereas US Treasury owned $7.0 billion worth of gold. Cumulative world gold stock was 48,000 metric tonnes at that time. In other words, US Treasury was at the possession of 13% of world gold. After WWII, in 1948, US Treasury increased its gold holding to a whopping 35%! Today it has less than 5% of world gold (if there is any gold at Fort Knox), the Western Bloc as a whole depleted its gold holding from as much as 46% in 1959 to 15% today. As of May 2010, US money supply increased 267 times to 8.6 trillion, whereas total amount of gold increased only 3.44 times to 165,000 tonnes. I think $2,500-$3,000 is a fair price for gold.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife