Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Will Gold Price Breakout? 3 Things to Watch… - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
2.China Invades Saudi Oil Realm: PetroDollar Kill - Jim_Willie_CB
3.Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast, Paypal FUD Fake Cryptocurrency Warning - Nadeem_Walayat
4.The Stock Market Trend is Your Friend ’til the Very End - Rambus_Chartology
5.This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare - F_F_Wiley
6.GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
7.US Housing Real Estate Market and Banking Pressures Are Building - Chris_Vermeulen
8.Return of Stock Market Volatility Amidst Political Chaos and Uncertain Economy - Buildadv
9.Can Bitcoin Price Rally Continue After Paypal Fake FUD Attack? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Warning Economic Implosion on the Horizon - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
Stock Market Predictive Modeling Is Calling For A Continued Rally - 22nd Apr 18
SWEATCOIN - Get PAID to WALK! Incentive to Burn Fat and Lose Weight - Review - 22nd Apr 18
Sheffield Local Elections 2018 Forecast Results - 22nd Apr 18
How Long Does it take for a 10%+ Stock Market Correction to Make New Highs - 21st Apr 18
Sheffield Ruling Labour Party Could Lose 10 Council Seats at May Local Elections - 21st Apr 18
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi Arabia $80 ARAMCO Stock IPO Target - 21st Apr 18
Gold Price Nearing Bull Market Breakout, Stocks to Follow - 20th Apr 18
What’s Bitcoin Really Worth? - 20th Apr 18
Stock Market May "Let Go" - 20th Apr 18
Overwhelming Evidence Against Near Stock Market Grand Supercycle Top - 20th Apr 18
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO - 20th Apr 18
The Incredible Silver Trade – What You Need to Know - 20th Apr 18
Is War "Hell" for the Stock Market? - 19th Apr 18
Palladium Bullion Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns - 19th Apr 18
Breadth Study Suggests that Stock Market Bottom is Already In - 19th Apr 18
Allegory Regarding Investment Decisions Made On Basis Of Government’s Income Statement, Balance Sheet - 19th Apr 18
Gold – A Unique Repeat of the 2007 and How to Profit - 19th Apr 18
Abbeydale Park Rise Cherry Tree's in Blossom - Sheffield Street Tree Protests - 19th Apr 18
The Stock Market “Turn of the Month Effect” Exists in 11 of 11 Countries - 18th Apr 18
Winter is Coming - Coming Storms Will Bring Out the Best and Worst in Humanity - 18th Apr 18
What Does it Take to Create Living Wage Jobs? - 18th Apr 18
Gold and Silver Buy Signals - 18th Apr 18
WINTER IS COMING - The Ongoing Fourth Turning Crisis Part2 - 18th Apr 18
A Stock Market Rally on Low Volume is NOT Bearish - 17th Apr 18
Three Gold Charts, One Big Gold Stocks Opportunity - 17th Apr 18
Crude Oil Price As Bullish as it Seems? - 17th Apr 18
A Good Time to Buy Facebook? - 17th Apr 18
THE Financial Crisis Acronym of 2008 is Sounding Another Alarm - 16th Apr 18
Bombs, Missiles and War – What to Expect Next from the Stock Market - 16th Apr 18
Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold - 16th Apr 18
Will Bitcoin Ever Recover? - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market Futures Bounce, But Stopped at Trendline - 16th Apr 18
How To Profit As Oil Prices Explode - 16th Apr 18
Junior Mining Stocks are Close to Breaking Downtrend - 16th Apr 18
Look Inside a Caravan at UK Holiday Park for Summer 2018 - Hoseasons Cayton Bay Sea Side - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market More Weakness? How Much? - 15th Apr 18
Time for the Gold Bulls to Show their Mettle - 15th Apr 18
Trading Markets Amid Sound of Wars - 15th Apr 18
Sugar Commodity Buying Levels Analysis - 14th Apr 18
The Oil Trade May Be Coming Alive - 14th Apr 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Lessons

Stock Market and Gold Summer Correction, Remember White Swans Out Number Black Swans

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jul 11, 2010 - 01:05 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSeems like every day there is talk about black swans, what about white swans ? Positive developments to the upside ? Since the Stock market has not crashed, collapsed, evaporated into perma- bear abyss targets, it clearly is discounting something positive ? Whilst bears focus on the doom and gloom of double dip recessions, depressions, armageddon's, focusing wholly on the 15% downtrend price action since the April peak, though conveniently forgetting the 70% advance before it. So I will leave Nassim Taleb to See Black Swans everywhere as an excuse for poor analysis rather than anything of any actionable value. I mean Taleb says forecasts are irrelevant but then prances about in the mainstream media issuing economic depression forecasts, perhaps he should read his own book ?


Doom merchants are usually at their most influential right at the end of cyclical low points. I would happen a guess at Taleb having a perma-doom mindset that makes money during crisis but then gives much of it back during the booms.

In a nutshell, Taleb's strategy is to basically to keep betting on a crash "Black Swan" until it eventually happens. You don't have to be genius to follow a strategy of buying far out of the money Puts! That 99% of the time expire worthless.

The bottom line - Your money is not going to be made in a crash because as the Flash Crash illustrated, if you blink your going to miss it. Your money is going to be made trading the trends whether bull or bear, that is the exact opposite to Taleb's strategy / theory.

Remember white swans are far more common than black swans which is why we are sat getting fat in warm technology ridden rooms rather than sat in dark caves contemplating where the next meal will come from.

The Dow's break above 9,750 early week targets 10,550. Remains in a corrective trading range of 10,550 to 9,800. The Dow has now had 3 shots at breaking lower, all have failed to follow through. The Dow has yet to make a higher low, therefore remains well within the trading range. The most probable outcome during the week is for an attempt at making a higher low between 9,800 and 10,000 and thus break the pattern of lower lows into the last low of 9,614, which would set the scene for an assault on resistance at between 10,400 and 10,500.

Last weekends Interim Analysis - 4th July 2010 (Stocks Bull Market Correction or Bear Market? ) - Dow Break above 9,750 targets 10,550.

Stocks Last In depth Analysis - 16 May 2010 - Stocks Bull Market Hits Eurozone Debt Crisis Brick Wall, Forecast Into July 2010 - Dow Correction to 9,800 to resolve towards Mid July target of 10,700.

Stock Market Road Map for 2010 -02 Feb 2010 - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Trend Forecast For 2010 - Dow Targets Sideways trading range into Mid 2010, then 12,000 to 12,500 by end of 2010.

Gold - Remains in its seasonal corrective down trend pattern, the sharp drop from 1240 to 1200 followed by the current weak corrective reaction higher implies that it's not done to the downside. The last swing was about 80 dollars, similar swing off of 1220 suggests 1140, which is actually below support of 1,165, which means it will take some time to build a base to target a break of 1265. Target for 2010 remains at 1333 (18 Feb 2010 - Gold Analysis and Price Trend Forecast For 2010 )

Source and comments : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20998.html

Your grey swan analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Featured Analysis of the Week

How to Fight Conspiracies and Win - 10th July 10 - Gary_North
Thoughts on U.S. Employment Numbers and Double-Dip Recessions - 10th July 10 - John_Mauldin
Potholes in the Economic Recovery, U.S. GDP Forecast - 10th July 10 - Paul_L_Kasriel

Deflation Report

China SSEC and SPX Trend Divergence - 9th July 10 - Zeal_LLC
Is it Safe to buy BP Junk Bonds? - 9th July 10 - Gary_Dorsch
Three Reasons Technology Companies Will Continue to Coast Through 2010 - 9th July 10 - Kerri Shannon
The U.S. Econonomies Future
According to Robert Prechter, Is the World Doomed? - 9th July 10 -Andrew_Butter
Next, Minsky Melt-Up Or Plunging Stock Markets - 8th July 10 - Gordon_T_Long
State of the European Banking System - 8th July 10 - STRATFOR
Buy and Sell Gold On-line Securely
Gold and Silver Good and Bad News - 8th July 10 - Peter_Degraaf
Gold and Silver - Will They Protect You? - 7th July 10 - Mac_Slavo
U.S. Stock Market Sliding Over The Cliff, Crisis Redux Road To Perdition - 7th July 10 - Jim_Willie_CB
Stock Market Crash Report - FREE
Beyond Black Swans, De-Leveraging And Re-Leveraging - 7th July 10 - Gary_North
Stock Market Retests H&S Neckline, Perfect Setup for Opening Gap Down - 7th July 10 - Anthony_Cherniawski
More Red Flags for the U.S. Economy  - 6th July 10 - Mike_Whitney
Get Your Free 50-Page Download: The Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook
Stock and Gold Market Analysis for Dow, Nasdaq, Bonds, IBM, AAPL and BIDU - 5th July 10 - JD_Rosendahl
Crude Oil $100 Sooner Than You Think - 5th July 10 - Dian_L_Chu
BP Oil Spill Global Catastrophe Reaches Epic Proportions - 4th July 10 - Dr. Tom Termotto
Deflation Report
Gold Charts, Stocks and Bond Market Crash, Currency Wars and Financial Coup d'état - 4th July 10 - Jesse
Stock Market SPX Breaks September Low as VIX Spikes - 4th July 10 - Anthony_Cherniawski
Seize BP Assets: Compounding One Disaster with Another - 3rd July 10 - Carl F. Horowitz

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week :

1. BP Oil Spill Global Catastrophe Reaches Epic Proportions

By: Dr. Tom Termotto

As BP Oil Spill Lets the Genie Out Of The Bottle

Why has it been so difficult to put this GENIE (Oil & Gas) back into the bottle (Macondo Prospect, Gulf of Mexico)? Or at least keep any more of him from coming out?

Read Article

2. BP Gulf Oil Spill Disaster, An Impossible Well to Cap?

By: Joshua_S_Burnett

My first article in this series was a query; I listed the theories and evidence I’d seen thus far and asked for readers to respond and tell me I was crazy (which a few of you did, in as many words…much appreciated J). I felt that what I was writing about seemed to me far “too apocalyptic” as one comment on the original article stated.  If you read the introduction and conclusion of the first article it becomes rather obvious that I wasn’t advocating, I was inquiring.  I received over 100 emails; after investigating those leads here are what I’ve concluded thus far.

Read Article

3. Stocks Bull Market Correction or Bear Market?

By: Nadeem_Walayat

However in response to requests and price action here is an interim analysis of the stock market:

Read Article

The U.S. Econonomies Future

4. Coming Chaos: No Banks, No Public Facilities, No Food and Rampaging Gangs of Desperate People

By: Mac_Slavo

"Advice is what we ask for when we already know the answer but wish we didn't." ~ Erica Jong

Bob Chapman, of The International Forecaster, says it’s time to prepare for the worst, comparing our impending economic crisis to that which was experienced at the onset of 1348 and the following century and a half.

Read Article

5. U.S. Stock Market Sliding Over The Cliff, Crisis Redux Road To Perdition

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Time to awaken to a new dreadful reality. Just like autumn 2008, all over again, the stock market is breaking down in a powerful visible manner, after nothing was fixed with the vast financial structures but much money was spent. If only the USGovt had decided to address the problems instead of funding the myriad liquidity facilities, which by the way serve as a virtual banking system. If only the USGovt had decided to address the problems instead of funding the US Federal Reserve equity reserves, as in excess bank reserve lures. If only the USGovt had decided to address the problems instead of funding the bank preferred stock and bank executive bonuses. If only the USGovt had decided to address the fundamental need for capital formation toward job growth instead of simple extensions of jobless benefits.

Read Article

6. More Red Flags for the U.S. Economy 

By: Mike_Whitney

Bonds are signaling that the recovery is in trouble.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury (2.97 percent) has fallen to levels not seen since the peak of the crisis while the yield on the two-year note has dropped to historic lows. This is a sign of extreme pessimism. Investors are scared and moving into liquid assets. Their long-term expectations have grown dimmer while their confidence has begun to wane. Economist John Maynard Keynes examined  the issue of confidence in his masterpiece "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money". He says:

Read Article

7. Gold Charts, Stocks and Bond Market Crash, Currency Wars and Financial Coup d'état

By: Jesse

If there is a stock crash, all asset classes will suffer liquidation for a period of time, except perhaps for treasuries, and chart formations will get tossed out the window. But at some time after the primary crash, the currency is devalued, and bonds are taken out and beaten.

Read Article

8. Crude Oil $100 Sooner Than You Think

By: Dian_L_Chu

Sentiment in the crude oil market has been quite pessimistic lately after some disappointing economic data fueling fear over the strength of the U.S. recovery, and signs of a possible China slowdown. This is on top of the market distress already exerted by the Europe sovereign debt and banking crisis.

Oil price was down 8% for the week, with the front-month August delivery settled at $72.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Read Article

Subscription

You're receiving this Email because you've registered with our website.

How to Subscribe

Click here to register and get our FREE Newsletter

About: The Market Oracle Newsletter

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Newsletter and online publication.
(c) 2005-2010 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - The Market Oracle asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team. Any and all information provided within this newsletter is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided in this newsletter. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. ( Market Oracle Ltd , Registered in England and Wales, Company no 6387055. Registered office: 226 Darnall Road, Sheffield S9 5AN , UK )


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules