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Climate Change, Floods, Droughts, Food Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend

Commodities / Agricultural Commodities Aug 04, 2010 - 01:23 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


Food prices are soaring with wheat up more than 50% in a month whilst the mainstream press looks for answers in triggering events such as the Russian drought and wild fires, Pakistan flooding whilst it's President Zadari holidays in Britain with an eye on eventually treating himself to a British passport. However rising food prices as a consequence of climate change, population growth and the rise of asian per capita consumption are just part of the manifestation of the unfolding multi-decade long Inflation megatrend.

Rising food prices will feed into official inflation indices such as the CPI and RPI which are already persistently running well above the Bank of England's 2% CPI target at 3.4%, which compares against the Bank of England's February forecast of UK CPI inflation falling below 1% by now.

Way back in January 2010, The inflation Mega-trend Ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD) made the case that investors had a golden opportunity to buy into agricultural and soft commodities such as wheat at rock bottom prices long before the recent price jumps in commodity food complexes.

Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook Page 48

Stocks and Commodities have boomed following the March 2009 lows, but grains have NOT ! They are STILL trading near the lows and therefore the grains are presenting one of those once in a life time mega-trend buying opportunities right now ! Read on....

Meanwhile the academic economists that populate the mainstream press are concerning themselves with non existant deflation and double dip recessions, always between 6 months and 2 years behind the curve to only realise a trend AFTER it has come and gone.

UK Inflation Forecast 2010

UK Inflation of CPI at 3.2% for June 2010 is exactly in line with my trend forecast for 2010 as of December 2009 that projected June inflation data of 3.2%. My analysis since November has been warning of a spike in UK inflation as part of an anticipated inflation mega-trend (18 Nov 2009 - Deflationists Are WRONG, Prepare for the INFLATION Mega-Trend ) that culminated in the forecast of 27th December 2009 (UK CPI Inflation Forecast 2010, Imminent and Sustained Spike Above 3%) and the Inflation Mega-trend Ebook of January 2010 (FREE DOWNLOAD) as illustrated by the below graph.

UK Inflation May 2010

Comments and Source:

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-10 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market and he is the author of the NEW Inflation Mega-Trend ebook that can be downloaded for Free. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


07 Aug 10, 06:57
Inflation and alternative energy

I have read your document related to Inflation mega trend. Could you please tell us what is your view on alternative energy? Whether alternative energy stocks will rise with rise in OIL.



17 Aug 10, 23:20
Alternative energy

Requesting you to reply the query posted above.



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