Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Can We Lock Up Rachel Maddow Now? - 25th Mar 19
Real US National Debt Might Be $230 Trillion - 25th Mar 19
Friday's Stock Market Sell-Off - New Downtrend or Just Correction? - 25th Mar 19
20 Days Left to Find Buying Opportunities In Gold - 25th Mar 19
Will the Historic Imbalance in Gold Stocks to Gold Price Resolve ? - 25th Mar 19
EasySMX Wireless Games Controllers Review - 25th Mar 19
Stock Market Short-term Top - 25th Mar 19
UK Population Growth - Latest ONS Immigration Statistics and Consequences - 24th Mar 19
The Fed Follows Trump's Tweets, And Does The Right Thing - 24th Mar 19
Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? - 24th Mar 19
Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves - 23rd Mar 19
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops - 23rd Mar 19
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - 23rd Mar 19
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks - 23rd Mar 19
Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Mar 19
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? - 23rd Mar 19
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Surge in Housing Supply Will Drive Down U.S. House Prices

Housing-Market / US Housing Sep 16, 2010 - 06:26 AM GMT

By: Mike_Whitney

Housing-Market

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHome ownership has become an albatross. Prices are falling, demand is weak, foreclosures have skyrocketed, and inventory is backed up to the moon. If there's an upside, it's hard to see.

Everyone who bought a house in the last 6 or 7 years knows that he was fleeced by bankers who were pushing "fishwrap" mortgage paper to line their own pockets. Prices did not reflect the underlying supply/demand fundamentals as much as they exposed the massive mortgage laundering operation that was taking place in the shadow banking system. Hedge fund sharpies and other speculators walked away with billions while credulous homeowners were lashed to an anvil and tossed in the East River.


Now there are signs that the Fed teamed-up with the banks to get another pound of homeowners' flesh by keeping inventory off the market while they were exchanging $1.25 trillion in reserves for the banks non performing loans and mortgage-backed securities. Here's how it works: While the Fed was executing its "quantitative easing" (QE) program, the banks began to stockpile foreclosed homes to reduce supply and, thus, stabilize prices. It was all a hoax to conceal the transfer of reserves for garbage assets. Now that the banks are loaded with fresh reserves, they don't need to play-along anymore, which is why they've started dumping their massive backlog on the market. As inventory floods the market, housing prices will tumble and homeowners will take another pounding. Here's an excerpt from an article in the Wall Street Journal that helps to explain what's going on:

"The speed at which house prices fall over the next few months could depend less on mortgage rates and Americans' appetite for home buying than on how banks decide to manage the huge number of foreclosed homes they own or may take from delinquent borrowers in the near future.

Unlike home owners, banks often are much quicker to slash prices to unload properties quickly." ("Banks' Plans for Foreclosed Homes will drive the Market", Nick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal)

In truth, the only reason prices have stayed high is because of foot-dragging at the banks. If they released all of their inventory now, prices would plunge below their historic trend. As it stands, the deluge of foreclosed homes on the market are certain to put more pressure on today's prices. There's a good chance the market will overshoot to the downside leaving more homeowners drowning in red ink.

So, what are the banks really up to?

It looks to me like the banks have shored up their equity and capital enough that they feel they can clean up their books without going belly-up. And that means that you, dear homeowner, will be left in your two bedroom rambler in Riverside, watching the sunset on your retirement nest-egg.

Here's more from the WSJ:

"The Home Affordable Modification Program has fallen short of its goals. So far, fewer than 500,000 loans have been modified, below the target of three million to four million. Yet the program served as a “closet moratorium” on foreclosures that stanched the flow of bank-owned homes to the market, said Ronald Temple, portfolio manager at Lazard Asset Management."

Of course, the HAMP modification program failed. It was designed to fail. It was a stalling device like the other foreclosure moratoria. All of the subsidies, incentives and tax credits were designed to "run out the clock" while the banks offloaded their garbage onto the Fed's balance sheet. As soon as the stealth bailout ended, there was no longer any reason to continue the "prices have stabilized" charade. So, now the great housing inventory purge can resume with gusto.

 Servicers have already picked up the pace of foreclosures which will swell inventory and weaken demand.

More from the WSJ:

“We see the perfect storm brewing with rising supply and falling demand,” said Ivy Zelman, chief executive of research firm Zelman & Associates and one of the first to warn of trouble five years ago. She estimated that distressed sales could account for half of the market by year-end if traditional sales didn’t rebound…..

Analysts at Barclays Capital estimate that some four million loans are in some stage of foreclosure or are at least 90 days past due, down slightly from a January peak."

Homeowners have already seen prices plunge 30% from their bubble-highs in 2006. Now they stand to get clobbered again by an unexpected surge in supply. This is going to ruin a lot people's retirement plans. We're all a lot poorer than we thought, and the banks are determined to make us poorer still.

By Mike Whitney

Email: fergiewhitney@msn.com

Mike is a well respected freelance writer living in Washington state, interested in politics and economics from a libertarian perspective.

© 2010 Copyright Mike Whitney - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Mike Whitney Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules