Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
After 8 Terrific Weeks for Stocks, What’s Next? - 16th Feb 19
My Favorite Real Estate Strategies: Rent to Live, Buy to Rent - 16th Feb 19
Schumer & Sanders Want One Thing: Your Money - 16th Feb 19
What Could Happen When the Stock Markets Correct Next - 16th Feb 19
Bitcoin Your Best Opportunity Outside of Stocks - 16th Feb 19
Olympus TG-5 Tough Camera Under SEA Water Test - 16th Feb 19
"Mi Amigo" Sheffield Bomber Crash Memorial Site Fly-past on 22nd February 2019 VR360 - 16th Feb 19
Plunging Inventories have Zinc Bulls Ready to Run - 15th Feb 19
Gold Stocks Mega Mergers Are Bad for Shareholders - 15th Feb 19
Retail Sales Crash! It’s 2008 All Over Again for Stock Market and Economy! - 15th Feb 19
Is Gold Market 2019 Like 2016? - 15th Feb 19
Virgin Media's Increasingly Unreliable Broadband Service - 15th Feb 19
2019 Starting to Shine But is it a Long Con for Stock Investors? - 15th Feb 19
Gold is on the Verge of a Bull-run and Here's Why - 15th Feb 19
Will Stock Market 2019 be like 1999? - 14th Feb 19
3 Charts That Scream “Don’t Buy Stocks” - 14th Feb 19
Capitalism Isn’t Bad, It’s Just Broken - 14th Feb 19
How To Find High-Yield Dividend Stocks That Are Safe - 14th Feb 19
Strategy Session - How This Stocks Bear Market Fits in With Markets of the Past - 14th Feb 19
Marijuana Stocks Ready for Another Massive Rally? - 14th Feb 19
Wage Day Advance And Why There is No Shame About It - 14th Feb 19
Will 2019 be the Year of the Big Breakout for Gold? - 13th Feb 19
Earth Overshoot Day Illustrates We are the Lemmings - 13th Feb 19
A Stock Market Rally With No Pullbacks. What’s Next for Stocks - 13th Feb 19
Where Is Gold’s Rally in Response to USD Weakness? - 13th Feb 19
US Tech Stock Sector Setting Up for A Momentum Breakout Move - 12th Feb 19
Key Support Levels for Gold Miners & Gold Juniors - 12th Feb 19
Socialist “Green New Deal” Points the Way to Hyperinflation - 12th Feb 19
Trump’s Quest to Undermine Multilateral Development Banks - 12th Feb 19
Sheffield B17 US Bomber Crash 75th Anniversary Fly-past on 22nd February 2019 Full Details - 12th Feb 19
The 2 Rules For Successful Trading - 12th Feb 19 -
Financial Sector Calls Gold ‘Shiny Poo.’ Are They Worried? - 11th Feb 19
Stocks Bouncing, but Will They Resume the Uptrend? - 11th Feb 19
EURO Crisis Set to Intensify: US Dollar Breakout Higher
Stock Market Correction Starting? - 10th Feb 19
Gold Stocks Gather Steam - 10th Feb 19
Are Gold Bulls Naively Optimistic? - 9th Feb 19
Gold, Silver Precious Metals Update - 9th Feb 19
The Wealthy Should Prepare to Be Soaked - 8th Feb 19
US Business Confidence Is Starting to Crack - 8th Feb 19
Top Myths and Facts about ULIP Plans - 8th Feb 19
A Major Stocks Bear Market in 2020? - 8th Feb 19
Gold Market Extremes Test Your Mettle - 8th Feb 19
The Venezuela Myth Keeping Us From Transforming Our Economy - 8th Feb 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Real Secret for Successful Trading

Ireland's $130 Billion Bailout When Irish Banks are Ailing

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Nov 23, 2010 - 04:01 AM GMT

By: PhilStockWorld

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article$130 Billion!
That's how much money Ireland will be getting in the bailout package they said they didn't need as recently as Friday.  I just want to make it perfectly clear that I also DO NOT need a bailout of tens of Billions of dollars so whatever you do - DON'T give me a bailout this weekend.  Let's hope that works! The U.K. and Sweden may contribute bilateral loans, the EU said in a statement. Irish Finance Minister Lenihan declined to say how big the package will be, saying that it will be less than 100 billion euros but Goldman Sachs said yesterday the government needs 65 billion euros to fund itself for the next three years and 30 billion euros for the banks.  


Ireland's annual deficit is the worst in Europe at 30% of GDP (that would be like the US having a $5Tn annual deficit) and the nation is expected to slash its budget by $20Bn next year just to keep it under that level. Prime Minister Cowen holds a very thin majority and now faces a "no confidence" vote that could lead to further turmoil with a special election coming on Thursday for a vacant parliamentary seat.  "The likelihood of this government surviving long beyond the first month or two of next year is virtually gone now," says David Farrell, professor of politics at the University College Dublin.    

I already put out a special note to Members early this morning on the Dollar and the markets, so I won't get back into it here but suffice to say we are VERY concerned about any instability that may drive people back into the dollar. I also have nothing to say on the US Economy that John Mauldin didn't say in his great article this weekend "O Deflation, Where is Thy Sting?" so please read that and catch up on Market Tamer's very nice chart series and then we can move ahead with current events.  All caught up now?  Great, let's go!  

Featured at PSW this weekend was Ed Harrison's note that perhaps some of the great Q3 performance in tech names was the result of good old-fashioned "channel stuffing," where companies inflate sales figures by forcing more products through a distribution channel than the channel is actually capable of ultimately selling.  In other words, be it the salespeople or the management trying to get better-looking results, they shove deliveries out the door in overly-optimistic anticipation of demand that is not likely to show up. This goes a long way to explain the discrepancy between reported sales and the lack of actual activity measure in the Baltic Dry Index (down 25% since early September) and rail traffic reports (flat).  

Even mighty German export growth is slowing according to the Ifo Economic Institute, which showed October's Export Climate index fell for the sixth consecutive month to 1.0, which is the lowest reading since last December. India is facing a mini crisis as micro-lenders begin to fail en masse and the S&P downgraded New Zealand to NEGATIVE on concerns over that country's finances. Keeping in mind that it's ALL about the Dollar (see note to Members) - the bulls should be VERY concerned about these developments.  

Another thing you need to see is this weekend's Stock World Weekly which features, among other things, the amazing Beta 3 tracker and, as we're still in free Beta, I can still print the chart for you here.  UNFORTUNATELY, the chart has not let us down so far and woe unto the markets if we hold this pattern through December:

Keep in mind that we are completing the Beta 3 as it's the up-trending pattern we've been following for months. If we begin to break down, that's going to be a different pattern and it's not likely to be driven and distorted by a "flash crash" like our May dip was although we can't discount the possibility and THAT'S WHY WE'RE BACK IN CASH!  I'm bored with saying it so you must be bored hearing it but I still see too many people asking "what's good to buy" when my answer is generally "nothing" at the moment.  If you think the above chart is depressing, take a look at this little piece of pattern recognition panic:

The big news in the US this week will be the "vast" insider trading probe of US markets that will, as usual, include our friends at Goldman Sachs.  US banks are looking at another $100Bn in potential mortgage losses, according to Barron's this week and, of course, China continues to try to flight inflation, which some estimate will move over 6% next year despite measures already in place.  

Keep an eye on copper $3.80, that's a canary in the coal mine for the global markets as is oil failing the $80 mark if it comes to that (now $81.67) but today is the last day of December contracts on the NYMEX and our bet is they dump off in the morning and climb back over $82.50 into inventories this week - as long as the Dollar stays below that 79 mark (now 78.67). We will get a lot of data for a short week with GDP and Existing Home Sales tomorrow morning and FOMC minutes, which are always fun, at 2pm.   Tuesday is all of the week's data stuffed into one day including oil inventories plus Mortgage Applications, Personal Income and Spending, PCE Prices, Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, Michigan Sentiment, New Home Sales and the FHFA Home Price Index.  

As I said this morning to Members in the Weekly Outlook:

If you are a new reader - I swear to you that I may be a cynic but I am NOT a pessimist - this is just a crappy market to invest in and I call them as I see them. Did you know that newsletter revenues go down significantly when the outlook is pessimistic? People don't want to hear bad news so the pressure is on most to give you the sunshine and lollipops point of view as much as possible.

Yes there are bearish newsletters but they are always bearish and have a niche audience. I'm talking about the neutral ones, not to mention the vast majority of funds are bullish funds and that can't change so they NEED you to be bullish on something and put your money into the market so they can charge you fees. You won't hear very many hedge fund managers saying "I think you should be in cash" because they are not "Cash Fund Managers" and they don't get paid for doing nothing.

So beware the charlatans, they have the floor and they will tell you ANYTHING to get your money off the sidelines. We have a short week, we're heading into the holidays and these are very uncertain waters so why not just relax and have a happy Thanksgiving with the family as there will be tons of opportunities to invest in December and, of course, next year so we're not going to miss anything by skipping this low-volume BS and having a nice, relaxing week.

Will I still make picks? Sure I will, I love making picks! But let's just keep things in context and have some fun rather than trying to come up with an investing premise in an uninvestable market.

Phil

www.philstockworld.com

Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks). Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)

© 2010 Copyright  PhilStockWorld - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules