Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? - - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold Price Downtrend Looks Set to Continue - Clive_Maund
4.Commodity Prices Set To Plunge Below 2008 Lows - Austin_Galt
5.New Greece Drachma Revealed Amid Bank Runs - Greeks Buy Gold Sovereigns - GoldCore
6.Gold and Silver Stocks or General Stock Market Indices? - Rambus_Chartology
7.“Forgive Us Our Debts” – Only Way To Prevent Economic Meltdown - GoldCore
8.UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election - Nadeem_Walayat
9.12 Reasons Why Barry Ritholtz and Many UK Experts Are Mistaken On Gold - GoldCore
10.Recession is On The Way; Beat The Stock Market Crowd, Panic Now! - Mike_Shedlock
Last 5 days
UK Election 2015 - Cameron Housing Bribe - 200,000 Discounted Homes for 400,000 Voters - 6th Mar 15
The Anthropology of Finance - 6th Mar 15
Portfolios, Insurance, and Gold - 6th Mar 15
Gold and Silver Justice For Some - Currency Wars - ECB Deposit Rates To -3% - 5th Mar 15
How to Play the Big Broker Stocks When Interest Rates Rise - 5th Mar 15
Here's What Stock Market Bulls Might Be Overlooking - 5th Mar 15
U.S. Soaring Crude Oil Stocks - Cushing and Gulf Coast Storage Filling Up Fast - 5th Mar 15
Japan's Intelligence Reform Inches Forward - 5th Mar 15
Gold Miner Index Breadth Oscillator, Forward Reckoning® - 5th Mar 15
Gold Price Set To Plunge Below $600 - 5th Mar 15
UK General Election Forecast 2015 - Immigration Crisis, SNP Insurgency and Housing Mini-Boom - 5th Mar 15
Spock, Debt and the Kingdom of Denmark - 5th Mar 15
The Psychology of a Sideways Stock Market Trend - 5th Mar 15
Freedom from America - Getting Out Of Dodge - 5th Mar 15
What Top Hedge Fund Managers Really Think About Gold - 4th Mar 15
U.S. Dollar Strategic Backfire On U.S. Government Policy - 4th Mar 15
Canada’s Central Banks Orders End to ‘Spocking’ Of Canadian Dollar - Defacing Debasing Currencies - 4th Mar 15
Chicago's Only Possible Salvation: A Detroit-Like Bankruptcy - 4th Mar 15
Gold Price and Mining Stocks Decline Together - 3rd Mar 15
Financial Slaughter - The Silence of the Lambs - 3rd Mar 15
Bondholders “Bailed In” In Austria – New Banking Crisis? - 3rd Mar 15
How to Profit from the Coming Oil Price Crunch - 3rd Mar 15
Is Japan Zimbabwe? Could Japan go Hyperinflation? - 3rd Mar 15
Bill Gross Says Fed May Raise Rates 25 Basis Points in June - 3rd Mar 15
The Secret Behind My Hedge Fund Trade on U.S. Housing Market - 3rd Mar 15
BLS CPI Lie - How's That Dsflation Working Out for You? - 3rd Mar 15
Tesla Bonfire of the Money Printers’ Vanities - 3rd Mar 15
Gold Demand in UK, Europe and U.S. – Reuters Interview GoldCore - 2nd Mar 15
Watch the Skies... for Investor Profits - 2nd Mar 15
How Investors Can Identify the Best Small-Cap Stocks - 2nd Mar 15
Gold and Silver - What If the Precious Metal Stocks Bulls are Back - 2nd Mar 15
Students Getting a PhD in Subprime Debt - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 3 - 2nd Mar 15
The Stock Market is in The Process of Major Top! - 2nd Mar 15
Stock Market Weakening Trend - 2nd Mar 15
Gold Price Glimmer of Hope - 1st Mar 15
Stock Markets Are Riding High on Thin Air - 1st Mar 15
Varoufakis vs. the Troika - Showdown in Athens - 1st Mar 15
Subprime Rising - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 2 - 1st Mar 15
Gold CoT Improving, But ... - 1st Mar 15
UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? - 28th Feb 15
UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others - 28th Feb 15
Stocks Bull Market Continues - 28th Feb 15
U.S. Debt Breaking Bad - 28th Feb 15
NATO Frankenstein - When Centralization Scales Beyond Our Control - 28th Feb 15
Gold And Silver Insanity Prevails; Precious Metals Without Direction - 28th Feb 15
Fed Raising U.S. Interest Rates - Shovelin’ Schmitt Against the Tide - 28th Feb 15
Don't Let This Stock Market Myth Cost You Your Gains - 28th Feb 15
Recession is On The Way; Beat The Stock Market Crowd, Panic Now! - 28th Feb 15
Stock Market Indexes Creeping Towards the Edge - 28th Feb 15
GGD Going for Mexican Gold - 27th Feb 15
Foreign Real Estate Is the New Swiss Bank Account - 27th Feb 15
10 Reasons Washington Has War Fever - 27th Feb 15
Gold and the Euro Tragedy, Iraq 3.0, Ukraine Conflict Three Ring Circus - 27th Feb 15
Deepak Chopra - New Age Genius or Bullshit Expert? - Video - 27th Feb 15 - Videos
New Greece Drachma Revealed Amid Bank Runs - Greeks Buy Gold Sovereigns - 27th Feb 15
Will Month Long Stocks Rally Continue? - 27th Feb 15
The Only Public Hedge Fund You Should Own - 27th Feb 15
UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election - 27th Feb 15
Why America is Ungovernable - The Republicans’ Civil War - 27th Feb 15
Gold vs Gold Stocks: Bullish Anomaly Developing? - 27th Feb 15
I Heart Capitalism, Nasdaq Stocks, Then And Now - 27th Feb 15
The Fed’s History of Assassination - 27th Feb 15 i
Gold Bull Market Forecast - Money Will Rotate Into These Dead Investments - 27th Feb 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The State of the Global Markets 2015

U.S. Politicians Engaged in Grand Compromise or Great Conspiracy?

Politics / US Politics Dec 13, 2010 - 07:28 AM GMT

By: Martin_D_Weiss

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen Americans went to the polls last month, many thought they were voting for a return of fiscal sanity in Washington. And with fiscal sanity, we’d have far better assurance of bond-market stability.

Instead, three houses of ill repute — two on Capitol Hill and one on Pennsylvania Avenue — are joining to deliver one of the most wanton, deficit-busting, bond-wrecking bills of all time.


What most people seem to overlook is that there are actually two bills in the works. There’s the bill Congress will pass this year. And there’s the bill you and I will have to pay next year, the year after, and perhaps till the day we die.

President Obama and the Republican leadership are calling it a “grand compromise to stimulate the economy.”

In reality, it’s little more than a great conspiracy to slaughter our nation’s finances.

The sad irony is that nearly all key decision-makers in Washington — including some you and I may have voted for — are feasting on the spoils:

  • The Republican leadership is getting the biggest prize — the extension of all Bush-era tax cuts.
  • The White House is walking away with its own choice morsels — a 13-month extension of unemployment benefits, a major cut in payroll taxes, and more.
  • And even rebellious Democrats are rebelling with a goal: To get a few leftovers for themselves as well.

Nearly every leader in Washington has blood-red ink on his hands!

None of the deal-makers have assumed responsibility for our future or our children’s future!

The Biggest Self-Deceptions of All Time

Let’s step back for a moment and review how we got here.

Shortly after the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008, I participated in a Washington forum of decision-makers and opinion leaders, including Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, financier George Soros, and a long list of others of similar distinction.

As you may recall, that was a time of peak tension and fear — when the world’s largest financial institutions were going bankrupt, when the government was scrambling to bail them out, and when the Fed was pumping trillions of dollars of hard money and guarantees into collapsing credit markets.

Plus, it was also a time when many people spoke more openly about their concerns and fears:

During dinner, Tim Geithner admitted to the group that the government’s measures were among the most extreme in history.

After dinner, George Soros told me that the government’s intervention was so massive, it risked hyperinflation.

Between workshops, Paul Volcker told me that he never dreamed the U.S. government would have to take all the steps it had taken to prevent a collapse.

Yet no matter how risky and how radical, everyone at the conference justified the government’s actions as “a necessary evil.”

Their rationale: The debt crisis required a two-step response …

First, they said, we had to save the system. Then, only later could we start fixing the system.

First, they argued, we had to accept trillion-dollar deficits. Then, only later could we figure out how to reduce the deficits.

I was the lone dissenter. I repeatedly declared — both in open forums and in private conversations — that …

“The distinction you are making between the present emergency and a future solution is a fiction, an illusion. The only time to do the right thing is right now. You cannot honestly promise to make all the right choices tomorrow, while consistently deciding to make all the wrong choices today.”

In principle, no one disagreed. But in practice, no one else dissented.

In fact, every forum participant was asked to vote by choosing among various new proposals to resolve the crisis. But all of the proposals assumed that the government’s role to bail out the system was indisputable. None of the proposals recognized the fiction I had articulated.

So in the final vote tally, there was only one abstention — mine.

And, unfortunately, this forum was merely a microcosm of what we’ve witnessed since the first day of this crisis …

Rampant, Blatant Discrepancies Between Their Actions and Words

We see the same pattern in the White House and at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) … in Congress and at Congressional Budget Office (CBO) … among Democrats and Republicans … among deficit apologists and, often, even so-called “deficit hawks.”

For the current or upcoming fiscal years, the red ink is undeniable. So their budget estimates have routinely admitted the enormity of the deficits.

But as soon as they look beyond the immediate horizon, they have invariably projected deficits that conveniently dwindle over time.

And the underlying message has always been the same:

“Yes, we know we’re trashing the budget this year. But don’t worry. We promise to fix it in future years.”

History, however, proves that such promises are literally emptier than a banker’s heart.

For example, in its Baseline Budget Projections of September 2008

  • The CBO estimated that the federal deficit for fiscal 2009 would be $438 billion. The actual deficit for 2009 was $1.4 trillion, or over TRIPLE the estimate made just one year prior.
  • At the same time, for 2010, the CBO estimated that the deficit would be $431 billion. In reality, it’s coming in at $1.5 trillion, or 3.6 times estimates.
  • The government’s unbridled optimism regarding nearby years was exceeded only by its fantasies regarding future years: The CBO estimated that, by 2012, the deficit would be down to just $126 billion. Today, the official estimate is $828 billion, or over SIX times more!

What’s most frightening is that history is now repeating itself:

Today’s official government estimates of future deficits are based on the same kind of false, optimistic assumptions as the grossly understated estimates made in 2008!

They assume that the unemployment rate will decline sharply. In reality, it’s rising.

They assume that borrowing costs will stay low. In reality, they are also rising.

And most egregious of all, they have the gall to assume that someone will start doing something about the deficits very soon when, in actual practice, no one in power has any such intention.

The latest events are a classic example of this hypocrisy:

Even while the president’s bipartisan commission was testifying before Congress on the urgency of taking drastic steps to cut the deficit immediately … that same president and that same Congress were agreeing on equally drastic steps to enlarge the deficit — also immediately.

Result: The administration’s latest budget estimates are already grossly outdated! The OMB’s own data, currently still up on its website, shows that the deficit is expected to shrink from its all-time record of $1.55 trillion this year to $1.27 trillion next year.

But now, because of the new deal that Mr. Obama and Congress have just cut, the deficit is likely to balloon again next year to an estimated $1.6 trillion. And that’s STILL assuming a significant decline in unemployment!

This means that, even in the best of scenarios, our leaders are now actually planning to give us the biggest federal deficit of all time, surpassing last year’s record-smashing deficit. And they’re doing so while still giving lip service to “fiscal discipline.”

So here we go again! More budget-busting tactics … more promises of future fixes … and STILL more budget busting!

Ignoring the Grim Reaper

Don’t our leaders hear the cries of urgency and outrage from the leaders of the president’s bipartisan commission?

Don’t they even bother to read the CBO’s just-released report, Economic Impacts of Waiting to Resolve the Long-Term Budget Imbalance?

Don’t they see what’s happening to budget-busting states like California, Illinois, New Jersey, and New York?

Don’t they realize that the whole world is watching? That China, which holds the lion’s share of our Treasuries, is turning increasingly sour on the U.S. and far more willing to dump U.S. Treasuries?

Don’t they understand the shocking events in our bond market of recent days — where bond yields are now surging even as the Fed spends $600 billion to push them down?

Certainly they could not have missed the Grim Reaper who has already knocked on the doors of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain! Certainly, they must know that our nation’s finances and economy are equally vulnerable to attacks by global bond investors.

Mark my words: Because of our ballooning deficits … because of Washington’s deliberate neglect … global investors are on the verge of major bond-market selling in the days ahead.

Result: We now have all the ingredients for the worst U.S. bond and U.S. dollar disaster in recent memory.

With This Danger Hanging Over Markets, Your Action Plan Should Be Clear …

First, get out of long-term bonds of all shapes and colors — government, corporate, or municipal … high rated or low rated.

Second, although the higher yields on U.S. Treasuries could help support the U.S. dollar for a short while, don’t expect that to last. When global investors sell, they sell both Treasuries AND dollars at the same time.

Third, any decline in the dollar is bound to be very closely correlated with rising trends in precious metals, agricultural commodities, and emerging markets. Just don’t count on any market going up in a straight line. Wait for corrections.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014