Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Gold And Silver Voodoo Analysis Price Forecasts - Austin_Galt
2.UK Saved From I.S. Threat But Scottish Independence Nightmare is Not Over! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Silver Price At or Very Close to an Important Low - Clive_Maund
4.Gold And Silver - PetroDollar On Its Deathbed? PMs About To Rally? No - Michael_Noonan
5.Gold and Silver Bear Phase III Dead Ahead - Rambus_Chartology
6.Stock Market Major Selloff Looms - Zeal_LLC
7.Inflate or Die! When Leverage Fails and Market Hope Turns to Fear - Ty_Andros
8.Gold Price Very Close to an Important Low - Clive_Maund
9.Market Forecasts for Stocks, Gold, Silver, Commodities, Financials and Currencies - EWI
10.U.S. Aggression - Will Russia and China Hold Their Fire? - Paul_Craig_Roberts
Last 5 days
“Back Door” Method For The Government To Pay Down The Federal Debt Using Private Savings? - 1st Oct 14
Dow Stocks Index And The No Mercy Cycle - 1st Oct 14
Why China Thinks Gold is the Buy of the Century - 1st Oct 14
Forex Volatility Predicts Bottom in Gold and Silver? - 1st Oct 14
Stock Market Wil-e-Coyote Moment May Have Arrived - 1st Oct 14
Europe Teetering the Ddge of a "Japan-style" Deflation - 30th Sept 14
Economists Economic Atonement - 30th Sept 14
Everything You Need to Know About the Stock Market S&P Index Until Christmas - 30th Sept 14
Singapore Becoming Global Gold Hub - Launches Kilo Bar Contract And Gold ATMs - 30th Sept 14
Germany Fights on Two Fronts to Preserve the Eurozone - 30th Sept 14
Turn the Tables on the Gold and Silver Market Manipulators - 30th Sept 14
U.S. 2014 Election Business as Usual - 30th Sept 14
Gold - Time to Buy the Dip? - 30th Sept 14
Urging Investors to Stay Liquid for the Coming Gold Stocks Boom - 30th Sept 14
The Japanese Deflation Myth and the Yen’s Slump - 29th Sept 14
Epic Investor Optimism that Can Be Reversed Only by a Huge Stocks Bear Market - 29th Sept 14
Russia’s Gokhran Buying Gold Bullion In 2014 and Will Buy Palladium In 2015 - 29th Sept 14
The End of Monetary Policy - 29th Sept 14
Here's What Rising Interest Rates Really Do to Your Shares - 29th Sept 14
Is a Credible Stock Market Top Forming? - 29th Sept 14
Silver Price At or Very Close to an Important Low - 29th Sept 14
Gold Price Very Close to an Important Low - 29th Sept 14
Nihilism And The Unknown Future - 29th Sept 14
Stock Market S&P, NAS Change In Trend? None Apparent, But A Caveat - 29th Sept 14
UK Saved From I.S. Threat But Scottish Independence Nightmare is Not Over! - 29th Sept 14
U.S. Aggression - Will Russia and China Hold Their Fire? - 28th Sept 14
Currency Wars and the Death of the Euro - Audio - 28th Sept 14
Obscure Maritime Law Practically “Guarantees” Profits for These Energy Companies - 28th Sept 14
Stock Market Primary IV Underway? - 27th Sept 14
Darwin And The Climate Apocalypse - 27th Sept 14
The Global Middle Class and Copper Consumption, A Stop Spike Event - 27th Sept 14
Can Money Save The Climate? - 27th Sept 14
Gold And Silver - PetroDollar On Its Deathbed? PMs About To Rally? No - 27th Sept 14
Debt and Inflation Consquences of American Fear - 27th Sept 14
U.S. and Global Confidence are in Divergence - So Are Stock Markets - 27th Sept 14
Are U.S. Cars About to Crash? - 27th Sept 14
Why the U.S. Created and Armed ISIS From Libya to Syria - 27th Sept 14
Stock Market vs the Developing Bear Market for Liberal Democracy? - 26th Sept 14
Stock Market Major Selloff Looms - 26th Sept 14
How My Charts Uncovered Two Big Stocks That Are Soaring Like Small Caps - 26th Sept 14
What Cycles Reveal About Stock Market Crash - 26th Sept 14
Gold Not A Safe Haven On Terrorism, Middle East Bombing, Russia ... Yet - 26th Sept 14
Valuing Gold and Turkey Farming - 26th Sept 14
Gold $1200 Underpinned by Physical Demand - 26th Sept 14
Inflate or Die! When Leverage Fails and Market Hope Turns to Fear - 26th Sept 14
Market Forecasts for Stocks, Gold, Silver, Commodities, Financials and Currencies - 26th Sept 14
Gold and Silver Bear Phase III Dead Ahead - 26th Sept 14
The Home Depot Breach Boils Our Blood – and It Should - 26th Sept 14
Why the Pundits are Wrong About Crude Oil Prices - 26th Sept 14
Where’s the Economic Growth? - 26th Sept 14
Stock Market Future Bull - 25th Sept 14
The Specter of Global Debt Default is Once Again Rearing its Head - 25th Sept 14
All Major Market Analysis and Forecasts Investor Open House has Started! - 25th Sept 14
Federal Reserve Policies Cause Booms and Busts - 25th Sept 14
Currency Wars Deepen - Russia, Kazakhstan Buy Very Large 30 Tons Of Gold In August - 25th Sept 14
Strong U.S. Dollar Pressures Gold - 25th Sept 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Most Exciting Event in the History of Technical Analysis

Fed Upgrades U.S. GDP Growth Forecast, Remains Significantly Concerned About Unemployment

Economics / US Economy Feb 17, 2011 - 03:12 AM GMT

By: Asha_Bangalore

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe minutes of the January FOMC meeting show the Fed more optimistic about economic growth in 2011. The Fed raised the central tendency for real GDP growth in 2011 to 3.4% - 3.9% from the November forecast of 3.0% to 3.6% (see Table 1). The revisions to projections of economic growth in 2012 and 2013 were small compared with the revision of estimates for 2011.


Consistent with the upward revision of real GDP, the unemployment rate was lowered from the November prediction. However, the unemployment rate remains at an elevated level of 8.8% to 9.0% in the fourth quarter of 2011. Predictions of inflation, overall and core, were both raised slightly for the entire forecast period.

Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20110126.pdf

Most members continue to hold that there is a great deal of uncertainty still. The minutes listed five major sources of uncertainty - (1) the nature of economic recoveries after financial crisis, (2) the effects of unconventional monetary policies, (3) structural problems in the labor market, (4) the future path of fiscal policy, and (5) global economic outlook. Despite these significant sources of concern, most members view that risks are broadly balanced with regard to real GDP growth. This is marked change from the view held in November, when most members held the opinion that downside risks to economic growth by far outweighed the upside risks. Pent-up demand and increased ease of credit availability were cited as factors leading to stronger-than-expected growth. Budgetary woes of state and local government translating to a decline in their spending that exceeded expectations, lower house prices and its attendant adverse consequences on household balance sheets and spending, and significantly slow improvements in the labor market which would raise household savings and reduce spending were seen as factors that could stall economic growth.

With regard to the labor market, although the outlook for the unemployment rate was balanced, members noted that if firms are pessimistic about underlying economic conditions and remain reluctant to increase payrolls, the pace of decline of the jobless rate would be less than the current prediction. The staff presented the current status of research about structural unemployment in the January deliberations. The main conclusion was that structural unemployment had risen but by less than actual increase in the unemployment rate. The minutes also noted that many factors that accounted for the increase in structural unemployment would "recede over time." The discussion also mentioned that mismatches of labor skills and "hiring practices" could not be solved by monetary policy. A few others hold that under current conditions monetary policy still had a positive role to play in reducing joblessness.

On the inflation front, compared with the assessment in November, the probability of deflation had dropped significantly. A few members saw upside emanating from the large size of the Fed's balance sheet. The persistent gap between the jobless rate and the long-run benchmark was seen as source for inflation to be lower than projected. A few members noted that higher energy and commodity prices presented an inflationary risk. Others added that there is only small pass-through of these higher prices to overall consumer price indexes.

Given the nature of economic conditions, the Fed plans to complete its purchases of longer dated Treasury securities. The minutes indicate a difference in opinion about quantitative easing, with some members suggesting a reduction as economic conditions improve, while others were unsure about the impact and held that the program should continue. A few others indicated that it was not likely that economic conditions would change sufficiently to justify a termination of the second round of quantitative easing.

Asha Bangalore — Senior Vice President and Economist

http://www.northerntrust.com

Asha Bangalore is Vice President and Economist at The Northern Trust Company, Chicago. Prior to joining the bank in 1994, she was Consultant to savings and loan institutions and commercial banks at Financial & Economic Strategies Corporation, Chicago.

Copyright © 2011 Asha Bangalore

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014