Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Gold and Understanding the Current Investment Reality - 10th Apr 20
See a Stock Price Gap? Learn to Capitalize on Them - 10th Apr 20
A Rare Bottoming Pattern on the HUI Gold Stocks? - 10th Apr 20
Here Comes Another $2T Support for Stocks - 10th Apr 20
Expectations For Higher Gold Prices – Fly In The Ointment - 10th Apr 20
Redefining Political Economy, Globalization & Business Models Consequent on Corona Virus Pandemics - 9th Apr 20
Plus500 Rreview - 9th Apr 20
Gold Price Closely Tracks Debt-to-GDP Ratio - 9th Apr 20
Gold, Silver and Rigged Market Socialism - 9th Apr 20
Going to School in Lockdown Britain, Dobcroft Sheffield - 9th Apr 20
Amazon Face Masks to Protect Against Covid-19 Viral Particles N95, FPP2, PM2.5, for Kids and Adults - 9th Apr 20
Is Natural Gas Price Ready For An April Rally? - 8th Apr 20
Market Predictions And The Business Implications - 8th Apr 20
When Will UK Coronavirus Crisis Imrpove - Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory Analysis - 8th Apr 20
BBC Newsnight Focuses on Tory Leadership Whilst Boris Johnson Fights for his Life! - 8th Apr 20
The Big Short Guides us to What is Next for the Stock Market - 8th Apr 20
USD Index Sheds Light on the Upcoming Gold Move - 8th Apr 20
The Post CoronaVirus New Normal - 8th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Forecast Current State - 7th Apr 20
Boris Johnson Fighting for his Life In Intensive Care - UK Coronavirus Crisis - 7th Apr 20
Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up! - 7th Apr 20
Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time - 7th Apr 20
Was the Fed Just Nationalized? - 7th Apr 20
Gold & Silver Mines Closed as Physical Silver Becomes “Most Undervalued Asset” - 7th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Blacktop Politics - 7th Apr 20
Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China - 6th Apr 20
Coronavirus Crisis Exposes Consequences of Fed Policy: Americans Have No Savings - 6th Apr 20
The Stock Market Is Not a Magic Money Machine - 6th Apr 20
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! - 6th Apr 20
How Can Writing Business Essay Help You In Business Analytics Skills - 6th Apr 20
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Economic Stimulus Shock: Unemployment “Boost” Ending

Economics / Economic Stimulus Jul 15, 2011 - 03:02 AM GMT

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Economics

Economics has been declared the “dismal science,” one in which there are very few opportunities to test the real world outcome of varying decisions made at a high level.  Today, the study of economics may be dismal for other reasons: the boost from unemployment benefits and other stimulus programs will soon run out.


When we think about stimulus, the near $800 billion program often comes to mind.  But the biggest stimulus program is that which touches the most budgets.  Several of the largest stimulus programs and subsidies are ending.

Unemployment Insurance

Unemployment insurance is approved by demand-side economists who suggest that automatic anti-cyclical government programs help boost demand when demand stifles.  With each job loss, states and the federal government have offered up 99 weeks of unemployment benefits, nearly two years of cash payments.

The extension, approved last December, will end this year.  Regular unemployment claims are met with 26 weeks of benefits.  However, due to the length of the recession, the program has been extended to 46 weeks through December, 2011.  Following those 46 weeks of benefits are four other unemployment extensions, scheduled to end on January 1, 2012, which tally up to a maximum of 53 weeks of unemployment.

Demand will surely fall as these benefits run out.  Unemployment benefits are typically spent immediately after receipt, as those who receive them cannot, by law, have another source of income.  The weakness of the American consumer was recently exposed in a piece by the Wall Street Journal.  The newspaper reported that more than 50% of Americans could not come up with $2,000 in 30 days should they need to pay for an immediate financial difficulty. 

FICA Stimulus

Alongside the expiration in unemployment benefits comes another source of demand: the reduced FICA tax rate for employees, which was dropped from 6.2% to 4.2% for one year.  In reducing the amount of taxes paid, the government can add some strength to the paystubs of the employed.  Economists note that a stream of small stimulus benefits is better than one-off stimulus checks, which are typically saved, not immediately spent. 

Food for Fed Thought?

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to increase aggregate demand and protect the US dollar’s value by minimizing inflation.  As we have all experienced, the CPI, the Fed’s measure of inflation, hasn’t kept up with surging energy and food prices, which are excluded from the calculus.

Investors should be left to wonder where the next stimulus will be sourced.  New extensions for unemployment benefits are a non-starter in election season politics, and Congress is concerned more with decreasing the cost of government than increasing its size.

This leaves us with one source that can skirt process of federal law: the Federal Reserve.  The bank has been more active in legislation and regulation since Congress fell into budget discussion deadlock.  It recently passed a policy which would cap debit card fees at 21 cents.   That decision is now law, without the vote of Congress.

So if Congress is stuck on debt discussion, and the presidential election makes new spending unpalatable, who will step in?  There hasn’t been a better case for QE3 than the removal of federal stimulus from the economy.  If “deflation risks” arise, you can bet your bottom dollar that the Fed will come in strong with QE3.

By Dr. Jeff Lewis

    Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, in addition to running a busy medical practice, is the editor of Silver-Coin-Investor.com and Hard-Money-Newsletter-Review.com

    Copyright © 2011 Dr. Jeff Lewis- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules