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IOWA Votes For Change, Barack Obama Wins but Ron Paul Rejected

Politics / US Politics Jan 06, 2008 - 02:34 AM GMT

By: Joel_S_Hirschhorn

Politics Ron Paul's obnoxious supporters like more traditional political activists can spin and delude themselves about election results. But the Iowa caucus results could not be clearer: The vast national desire for political change is manifesting itself through support for both Democratic and Republican change-candidates. Despite Paul being flush with money and having a large number of workers in Iowa, he was solidly rejected as the leading change agent.


Even with a huge historic turnout of about 348,000 participants, Paul did not attract significant numbers of independents that could easily participate in the Republican caucuses. They went to Obama, Edwards and Huckabee.

On the Democratic side, of some 232,000 people that turned out for the caucuses, nearly doubling what it was four years ago, about 70 percent wanted change and went for Obama and Edwards, roughly 150,000 participants.

On the Republican side, of the 116,000 participants, about 40,000 change-voters went for Huckabee, compared to 11,600 that chose Paul, giving him fifth place. That 10 percent for Paul was very close to the 9 percent found in a Des Moines Register poll of likely caucus voters (margin of error 3.5 points). Interestingly, like Paul, Huckabee also wants to eliminate the federal income tax.

In both parties, change-voters totaled about 200,000. So Paul received just 6 percent of that large fraction, and just 3 percent of the total of all caucus participants in Iowa. Paul was first in only one county, Jefferson, with 36 percent

Edwards was absolutely correct when he summed things up this way: “The one thing that is clear from the results in Iowa tonight is the status quo lost and change won.”

With all the hoopla from Paul supporters about younger people being for Paul, that's not what the Iowa results showed. Younger people seeking change and inspiration flocked to Obama, in particular. There was no demographic in Iowa that overwhelmingly went for Paul. Sure, Paul beat Giuliani, but Paul's effort in Iowa was much bigger than Giuliani's.

None of these results will impact Paul's supporters nationwide. Earl Ofari Hutchinson wrote a great article on Alternet.org: “Ron Paul is Scary, But Those Who Cheer Him Are Even Scarier.” He was right when he said: “The scariest thing about GOP presidential contender Ron Paul is not his fringe, odd-ball racial views. It is that people take him seriously.” But now Iowa has thankfully shown that the vast majority of Americans, especially those seeking political change, reject Paul.

After losing badly in Iowa Paul said: “The other candidates talk about tinkering with the status quo. We don't want to tinker; we want to change the status quo.” He said that his campaign is on the upswing and gaining support among independents, frustrated Republicans and unhappy Democrats. Just one very big problem: The Iowa results show that all these people are much more likely to vote for other Democratic and Republican change-candidates.

Paul's supporters claim that he will do much better in New Hampshire where Libertarian Party members hold a number of offices. I don't think so. Several polls taken before the Iowa results found Paul at just 5 to 9 percent. Will Paul get a big boost from Iowa? I don't think so. Paul had predicted he could finish in third place in Iowa, and many of his supporters think he will do that in New Hampshire. I don't think so. Paul will likely finish fifth in New Hampshire, in large part because more independents will go to Obama and McCain.

When Paul first ran for president as the Libertarian Party candidate in 1988, he won just 0.54 percent of the vote. Iowa shows that his second presidential bid will not produce much better results. Paul is definitely not tapping in a major way into the national populist movement, major desire for political change, anti-status quo sentiment, or even the anti-Iraq war issue. Clearly, other Democratic and Republican change-candidates are doing much better. This reality will not affect Paul's passionate, cult-like followers that are solidified like cement in their belief that Paul can and should be our next president, something that Paul himself probably never really believed.

By Joel S. Hirschhorn

http://www.delusionaldemocracy.com

Joel S. Hirschhorn has been widely published; his previous book is Sprawl Kills - How Blandburbs Steal Your Time, Health and Money - see www.sprawlkills.com He has published many articles and oped pieces in major newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Baltimore Sun, Chicago Tribune) and on progressive web sites such as CommonDreams, The Progress Report, SmirkingChimp and Opednews; Google Joel S. Hirschhorn to see his writings and achievements and see link below.  Before becoming a writer and consultant, he was a senior staffer for the U.S. Congress (Office of Technology Assessment), Director of Environment, Energy and Natural Resources at the National Governors Association, a full professor at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, and head of an environmental consulting company.

Joel S. Hirschhorn Archive

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Comments

A. Magnus
06 Jan 08, 18:02
Puppets of the Eastern Establishment

If anyone's delusional, it's Joel Hirschhorn. Barack Obama represents the establishment interests of the Council on Foreign Relations, without whose patronage and promotion within the mainstream media editorial boards he would have no support outside his home state of Illinois.

Ditto for Mike Huckabee, who has virtually no campaign war chest worth mentioning, a nearly non-existent campaign base outside the rabid fundamentalists who supported George W. Bush, and no support outside of Arkansas were it not for his patronage of the very same Council on Foreign Relations.

And if it wasn't for the CFR and the Bilderberg group's patronage of John Edwards, he would never have made the VP candidate of 2004.

Mr. Hirschhorn needs to sell his brand of inaccuracy elsewhere if he thinks educated people will consider the puppets of the Eastern Establishment to be anything close to real change.

The Iowa caucus was merely political theater for the banana republic which the U.S. has become.


Zac
07 Jan 08, 12:52
Huckabee

Mike Huckabee wants to replace the income tax with another form of taxation. Ron Paul wants to eliminate the IRS and replace it with nothing. The media has been pushing Huckabee as if he were Ron Paul from about two or three weeks before the Iowa vote. Huckabee did not have a swell in support. He was the focus of a media blitz to trick people into thinking that Huckabee is Ron Paul, and that he is anti-tax. He isn't.

Bill Clinton only got 3% of Iowa before going on to become president. Ron Paul was only 4% behind 4th place (Having 10% total). Guiliani only got 4% in all. One could blame Guiliani, a now second tier candidate, for taking votes from Paul, a now major candidate.


paul
07 Jan 08, 16:42
Biased Against Ron Paul

This article is a flat out giving miss information. His comment saying Paul was rejected was far from the truth. I just laughed at the poor guy for being so biased against Ron Paul. The Rep candidates are at a dissadvantage because the country is upset with the Rep administration. They have to deliver a message of hope to win back their own party in some cases. Ron Paul is the only person who is speaking out to save this country from a run away government...

If you look at the issues and and what the candidates would do... Ron Paul isn't change he is a R E V Olution... The democrats are worshipping change with their lips but Ron Paul is true and positive change for the future...

I would also say a lot of what the other candidates say is good in theory but I don't believe for one minute they believe what they are saying... Ron Paul has my heart because I not only believe what he is saying, I believe he believes it too...


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