Australian Stocks Continue Week Long Losing Streak

Stock-Markets / Austrailia Jan 13, 2008 - 07:26 AM

Crikey... seems like the Strayan market just can't get it's act together. Today marked the fifth successive session of decline for every All Ords market-cap sub-index except the ASX20 (which managed a gain yesterday), with average declines in the market-cap based subindices of 5% for the week.

The Strayan dollar continues its thrust towards parity - although it's not looking as strong against the Euro for the time being. I want it to soften further against the Euro for a month or so, since I am borrowing a 7-figure sum in Euros to fund my takeover of an unnamed Strayan Stock Research House.

Poor old Centro - suspended for the session, in preparation for an announcement to the market in the post-session. The shares in Centro are down 80-ish percent since December, which must be a joy for shareholders. IT just goes to show - if you leverage up like a internet stock punter, you really have to make sure that your refinance strategy is in place - and that is covers more than the five minutes after you sign the loan papers. Frankly Centro reminds me of Multiplex - another group of managers who thought that they poo-ed Mars Bars, simply because a badly misaligned debt market was prepared to shell out load of dough which enabled the aforementioned manager to have shiny new cars ... there is a certain class of individual who thinks that debt-funded expenditure should be counted as income rather than as a weakening of the balance sheet. Usually we refer to them as 'Americans'.

I have laid out the parable of the two university students before, but here I go again.

Imagine you have two university students. They are in the same course, they get the same marks, both are on Austudy... the only way you can tell them apart is that the Chinese guy is shorter than the Anglo kid.

Somewhere along the line, one of them (the Anglo) gets a loan for a car. Then he gets a credit card and buys himself some new duds, an iPod, a Blu-Ray disc player and a big-screen TV (see? I know all the things that the Yoof like... I am young, dammit). He has no qualms about shouting his mates down the pub, and buying drinks for birds at the same locale.

Meanwhile Kenneth (Chinese kids usually have strangely archaic first names, because they used to be handed out by their teachers)... I say Kenneth is on the bones of his ass. He borrows nothing; he lives in shared accommodation with three other students, doesn't buy lunch in the caf, and walks to and from Uni. Buys his textbooks at the second hand bookstore. And has a bank account instead of a credit card.

Using the American Test, Kerro (the Anglo kid's nickname) gets publicly identified as having become 'rich' because he is doing what the entire American economy is doing: funding current expenditure by undermining his own balance sheet. But what Kerro has probably not considered is that his habits put him in a position where he faces genuine 'event risk' - his lifestyle is completely dependent on continuing lax credit conditions. Kenneth, on the other hand, faces no such problem.

Here endeth the parable. The moral is that Flash Jack is usually up to his scrotum in debt.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries ( XAO ) - got slapped upside the head, down 92.9 points (1.51%) for the session, finishing at 6054.4 points. The index hit an intraday high of 6160.1 at 10:06 am, while the low for the day was at the closing bell. For the week, the index lost 331 points (5.1%), which is not to be sneezed at.

(Why would anything actually be "to be sneezed at"? Why would sneezing at something indicate that you were approaching it with insouciance?)

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.55 billion units, about even with its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1487 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 356 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 427.6 million units. Conversely (or even contrariwise), 832 stocks were dragged to a loss, with aggregate volume traded of 971.4 million shares.

Of the 480 All Ordinaries components, 96 rose while 313 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 4.9:1, with 106.93 million shares traded in gainers while 529.23 million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 ( XJO ) - registered a loss of 97.1 points (1.6%), closing out the session at 5981.6 points. For the week, the index shed 5.15%.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders ( XTL ) - registered a loss of 52.9 points (1.58%), closing out the session at 3295.2 points - a loss of 4.9% for the week (not significantly different from the broad market, but perhaps there is a hint of a flight-to-quality bid in the big-caps).

Among the big guns, 2 index components finished to the upside, and 19 closed lower for the session. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 120.34 million units; 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 4.05 million shares, while the 19 decliners had volume traded totalling 116.29 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

Woolworths Limited ( WOW ), +$0.54 (1.64%) to $33.48 on volume of 3 million shares; and
CSL Limited ( CSL ), +$0.11 (0.31%) to $35.96 on volume of 1.1 million shares.

The following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

Brambles Limited ( BXB ), -$0.3 (2.83%) to $10.31 on volume of 6.7 million shares;
AMP Limited ( AMP ), -$0.22 (2.36%) to $9.10 on volume of 5 million shares;
Westpac Banking Corporation ( WBC ), -$0.55 (2.07%) to $26.05 on volume of 5.5 million shares;
Westfield Group ( WDC ), -$0.39 (2.05%) to $18.66 on volume of 7.4 million shares; and
Stockland ( SGP ), -$0.15 (1.96%) to $7.50 on volume of 4.7 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries ( XSO ) - the place where non-mania excess returns lie. The small end of the market fell quite a bit harder than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords registered a loss of 62.4 points (1.69%), closing out the session at 3626.3 points and registering a 5.7% decline for the week.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 36 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 139 closed lower for the session.

The 193 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 266.67 million units: volume in the 36 gainers totalling 38.39 million shares, with trade totalling 163.61 million units in the index's 139 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were

Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Limited ( API ), +$0.11 (6.09%) to $1.83 on volume of 255.2 thousand shares;
Envestra Limited ( ENV ), +$0.04 (3.78%) to $0.96 on volume of 866.6 thousand shares;
Resolute Mining Limited ( RSG ), +$0.07 (3.45%) to $2.10 on volume of 555.2 thousand shares;
Customers Limited ( CUS ), +$0.01 (3.03%) to $0.17 on volume of 306.8 thousand shares; and
Adelaide Brighton Limited ( ABC ), +$0.09 (2.69%) to $3.44 on volume of 462.5 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

MFS Limited ( MFS ), -$0.37 (9.39%) to $3.57 on volume of 15 million shares;
Charter Hall Group ( CHC ), -$0.19 (8.84%) to $1.96 on volume of 1.1 million shares;
Macmahon Holdings Limited ( MAH ), -$0.15 (8.68%) to $1.53 on volume of 5.6 million shares;
Babcock&Brown Japan Property Trust ( BJT ), -$0.09 (7.2%) to $1.16 on volume of 3.1 million shares; and
Macarthur Coal Limited ( MCC ), -$0.66 (7.15%) to $8.57 on volume of 1 million shares.

Index Changes

Code Name Close % Volume

XAO	All Ordinaries	6054.4	-92.9	-1.51	833.5m
XTL	ASX 20	3295.2	-52.9	-1.58	120.3m
XFL	ASX 50	5802.7	-97.3	-1.65	338.5m
XTO	ASX 100	4835.3	-77.6	-1.58	518.9m
XJO	ASX 200	5981.6	-97.1	-1.6	711.6m
XKO	ASX 300	5997	-97	-1.59	785.6m
XMD	ASX Mid-Cap 50	6157.3	-74.7	-1.2	180.4m
XSO	ASX Small Ordinaries	3626.3	-62.4	-1.69	266.7m

Market Breadth

ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market

Advances	2	18	19	96	36	356
Declines	19	78	78	313	139	832
Advancing Volume	4.1m	59.7m	61m	106.9m	38.4m	427.6 million
Declining Volume	116.3m	340m	340m	529.2m	163.6m	971.4 million

GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, the news was universally negative: not a single sector managed to break into the "Win" column.

Since none of the industry sectors registered a gain for the session, there is no point in burdening ourselves with the internal behaviour of advancing sectors... on to the losers.

The worst-performed index for the session was the 2-stock Information Technology ( XIJ ) group, which dipped 22.6 points (4.13%) to 524.2 points. The index had volume traded totalling 2.19 million units, all on the declining side of the ledger -

Computershare Limited ( CPU ), -$0.39 (4.16%) to $8.98 on volume of 1.5 million shares; and
Iress Market Technology Limited ( IRE ), -$0.31 (4.08%) to $7.29 on volume of 646.1 thousand shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Property Trusts ( XPJ ), which slid 53.5 points (2.79%) to 1865 points for a weekly loss of 9.1%. The 20 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 256.12 million units; The 17 decliners had volume traded totalling 98.62 million units, and no index components rose (the Centro shares were all suspended pending an announcement by the embattled property group), The major percentage decliners within the index were

Babcock&Brown Japan Property Trust ( BJT ), -$0.09 (7.2%) to $1.16 on volume of 3.1 million shares;
ING Office Fund ( IOF ), -$0.08 (5.1%) to $1.40 on volume of 3.1 million shares;
Bunnings Warehouse Property Trust ( BWP ), -$0.1 (4.59%) to $2.08 on volume of 371.6 thousand shares;
Goodman Group ( GMG ), -$0.18 (4.02%) to $4.30 on volume of 8.7 million shares; and
Mirvac Group ( MGR ), -$0.22 (4%) to $5.28 on volume of 8 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Energy ( XEJ ), which slid 327.6 points (2.12%) to 15155.8 points as oil's recent retreat continued. The 17 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 34.64 million units; The 16 decliners had volume traded totalling 31.41 million units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 3.23 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

AED Oil Limited ( AED ), -$0.29 (6.52%) to $4.16 on volume of 2 million shares;
Paladin Energy Limited ( PDN ), -$0.39 (6.06%) to $6.05 on volume of 4.6 million shares;
Nexus Energy Limited ( NXS ), -$0.08 (4.48%) to $1.71 on volume of 1.1 million shares;
Oil Search Limited ( OSH ), -$0.18 (3.67%) to $4.73 on volume of 4.7 million shares; and
Beach Petroleum Limited ( BPT ), -$0.05 (3.09%) to $1.57 on volume of 4.3 million shares.

By Geoffrey Transom

http://marketrant.blogspot.com

I am currently a private trader, and I live in Central France. Prior to moving to Europe, I was Head of Equities Research at Australia's premier independent research house (investorweb), and prior to that I worked at an economic modelling think tank for 7 years. During that time I published articles related to the modelling of expectations in financial markets, and my PhD thesis (not finished) involved incorporating a scenario-based sensitivity analysis into a computable general equilibrium model. I also advised major companies on the ramifications of tax mix change, and co-authored and presented papers to the Econometric Society and the Commonwealth Treasury on the modelling of financial markets in the Commonwealth Treasury's TRYM macroeconomic model.

I was joint top student in my year at Honours level, getting a First in Economics and Econometrics; I won the inaugural Monash University Vice Chancellor's Undergraduate Fellowship for Economics, and was one of six students in the whole of Australia who was awarded a Reserve Bank research cadetship in my year. I got straight firsts in Masters coursework, too.

I'll write a biography a little less florid and a little more sensible to attach to posts should you decide to accept my material. I won't send through anything that contains strong language (I tend to lapse into rough language when discussing central bankers and ratings agencies).

I predicted the CDO crisis in 2004 (April 29th to be precise - the relevant segment is re-quoted at http://marketrant.blogspot.com /2008/01/cdorant-from-rantvault .html ) and I have shouted that Greenspan was an idiot from about 1998 onwards.

Geoffrey Transom Archive

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