Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Brexit War! EU Fearing Collapse Set to Stoke Scottish Independence Proxy War - Nadeem_Walayat
2.London Terror Attack Red Herring, Real Issue is Age of Reason vs Religion - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The BrExit War, Game Theory Strategy for What UK Should Do to Win - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Goldman Sachs Backing A Copper Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Trump to Fire 50 US Cruise Missiles To Erase Syrian Chemical Attack Air Base, China Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Stock Market Consolidation Time - Rambus_Chartology
7.Stock Market Investors Stupid is as Stupid Goes - James_Quinn
8.Gold in Fed Interest Rate Hike Cycles- Zeal_LLC
9.The BrExit War - Britain Intelligence Super Power Covert War With the EU - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Marc Faber: Euro to Strengthen, Dollar to Weaken, Gold and Emerging Markets to Outperform - MoneyMetals
Last 7 days
Damn the Deficits, Huge Trump Tax Cuts Ahead! - 29th Apr 17
Gold Hostage to Stocks - 29th Apr 17
Warren Buffett Hates Gold… But Here’s Five Reasons You Need To Own It - 29th Apr 17
Stock Market Sentiment, Re-Fueled Along the Way - 28th Apr 17
Calling out the Central Bankers - 28th Apr 17
Fed's Third Inetrest Rate Hike and Gold - 28th Apr 17
USD/CAD - Invalidation of Breakout or Further Rally? - 28th Apr 17
What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting - 28th Apr 17
Earth Overshoot Day - Human Population Growth - 28th Apr 17
Misunderstanding GDXJ: Why It’s Actually Great News For Junior Miners - 28th Apr 17
What Makes Bitcoin Casinos So Remarkable? - 28th Apr 17
Financial Markets Improvised Explosives - 27th Apr 17
More Stock Market Short-Term Uncertainty As Stocks Get Close To Record High - 27th Apr 17
Elliott Wave Theory: Is Elliott’s Theory Enough? - 27th Apr 17
Billionaire Investor Paul Tudor Jones Says Stock Market Valuation Is “Terrifying” And He Is Right - 26th Apr 17
The Great BrExit Divides - Britain, USA and France - 26th Apr 17
10 Facts That Show Our Taxes Are Worse Than You Thought - 26th Apr 17
What Trump’s Next 100 Days Will Look Like - 26th Apr 17
G20: SURPASSING THE 2nd GLOBAL STEEL CRISIS - 26th Apr 17
What A War With North Korea Would Look Like - 25th Apr 17
Pensions Are On The Way Out But Retirement Funds Are Not Working Either - 25th Apr 17
Frank Holmes : Gold Could Hit $1,500 in 2017 Amid Imbalances & Weak Supply - 25th Apr 17
3 Reasons Why “Spring Forward, Fall Back” Also Applies To Gold - 25th Apr 17
SPX may be Aiming at the Cycle Top Resistance - 25th Apr 17
Walmart Stock Extending Higher - Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 25th Apr 17
Google Panics and KILLS YouTube to Appease Mainstream Media and Corporate Advertisers - 25th Apr 17
Gold Price Is 1% Shy of Ripping Higher - 25th Apr 17
Exchange-Traded Funds Make Decisions Easy - 25th Apr 17
Trump Is Among The Institutionally Weakest National Leaders In The World - 25th Apr 17
3 Maps That Explain the Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons - 25th Apr 17
Risk on Stock Market French Election Euphoria - 24th Apr 17
Fear Campaign Against Americans Continues Nuclear Attack Drills in New York City - 24th Apr 17
Is the Stock Market Bounce Over? - 24th Apr 17
This Could Be One Of the Biggest Winners Of The Electric Car Boom - 24th Apr 17
Le Pen Shifts Political Landscape- The Rise of New French Gaullism  - 24th Apr 17
IMF Says Austerity Is Over - Surplus or Stimulus - 24th Apr 17
EURUSD at a Critical Point in Wave Structure - 23rd Apr 17
Stock Market Grand Super Cycle Overview While SPX Correction Continues - 23rd Apr 17
Robert Prechter Talks About Elliott Waves and His New Book - 23rd Apr 17
Le Pen, Melenchon French Election Stock, Bond and Euro Markets Crash - 22nd Apr 17
Why You Are Not An Investor - 22nd Apr 17
Gold Price Upleg Momentum Building - 22nd Apr 17
Why Now Gold and Silver Precious Metals? - 22nd Apr 17
4 Maps That Signal Central Asia Is at Risk of War - 22nd Apr 17
5 Key Steps For A Comfortable Retirement From Former Wall Street Trader - 22nd Apr 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Gold Bullion Up, Gold Stocks Get Pummeled

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Nov 15, 2012 - 04:52 AM GMT

By: Bob_Kirtley

Commodities

It’s been another one of those odd ball trading sessions where gold prices managed to finish the day up $2.50 to close at $1727.40/oz, but the gold mining stocks, as evidenced by The AMEX Gold BUGS (Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks) Index, known as the HUI, fell 21.55 points to 447.96 or a staggering 4.59%.


If we look back two years to the start of 2011, gold was trading at around $1400.00/oz so we can clearly see an increase in its value. At the same time the HUI was trading at around 560 so we can clearly see that this sector has suffered a decrease in value. So those investors who are looking for leverage to the price of gold will have to garner considerable expertise as stock pickers in order to beat the average performance of the gold mining sector. This is difficult to achieve as not everyone has the time that is required to become an expert in such matters. We would also inquire as to why one would take such a risk when the acquisition of physical gold is still relatively easy and it is outperforming the gold bugs index. The operation of mining is fraught with difficulty so one should expect the 'unforeseen' to make an appearance from time to time and totally disrupt a mines production schedule. There is also the political risk to be considered, an election can bring with it a new leadership who may require a bigger slice of the profits. Let’s face it, there are not too many countries that don’t need extra funding at the moment and asking more from a profitable miner would appear to be a reasonable request.

Back to what happened today. The markets in general also had a bad day with the DOW losing 1.45% and the S&P500 down 1.39%. One swallow does not make a summer as they say, but this is not the first time that the gold mining stocks have been sold off when the underlying asset has remained relatively stable. It also raises the possibility that gold mining stocks are being classified as general stocks so when the market sells off, the mining stocks are also sold off. This is something that we will need to watch carefully in future as it could well be a case of the baby being thrown out with the bath water.

We have been wary of gold mining stocks for some time now and we are still not convinced that they are the best vehicle for gaining exposure to gold prices in this bull market. If they remain neck and neck with gold then the physical metal is the obvious choice, as it is not worth shouldering the additional risks of mining without the reward of leverage.

As investors we are indeed looking to maximize our profits and actively seek out leverage to gold prices. For the last three years or so we have found that trading options in the gold sector has generated better returns than the stocks and until that position is reversed we will not be increasing our exposure to stocks. In fact should the situation revert to the stocks outperforming gold prices then an option on a stock would provide us with a form of double leverage. Imagine it for a moment, gold prices rise by 2%, gold stocks rise by 5% and those stock options gain say, 50%, now there’s a mouthwatering thought. We are not dreaming, we do believe that the opportunity will present itself, maybe not just yet, but it will come and when it does we will let you know, as we pounce on it.

Go gently as its treacherous out there these days.

Have a good one.

Bob Kirtley

Email:bob@gold-prices.biz

URL: www.silver-prices.net

URL: www.skoptionstrading.com

To stay updated on our market commentary, which gold stocks we are buying and why, please subscribe to The Gold Prices Newsletter, completely FREE of charge. Simply click here and enter your email address. Winners of the GoldDrivers Stock Picking Competition 200

DISCLAIMER : Gold Prices makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided on this site. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This website represents our views and nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this website. We may or may not hold a position in these securities at any given time and reserve the right to buy and sell as we think fit.

Bob Kirtley Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife