Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN - Nadeem_Walayat
2.BrExit Morning - New Dawn for Britain, Independence Day! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.LEAVE Wins EU Referendum - Sterling and FTSE Hit Hard, Pollsters, Bookies and Markets All WRONG! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.BrExit to Save Europe from Climate Change Refugee Migration Apocalypse - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
6.EU Referendum Latest Opinion Polls Show LEAVE Halting REMAINs Surge - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Gold And Silver – Insanity Is World “Norm.” Keep Stacking! - Michael_Noonan
8.Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Gold And Silver: Security, And BREXIT - Michael_Noonan
10.BrExit Vote - "The Trend is Set" -- And What You Should Pay Attention to Next - EWI
Free Silver
Last 7 days
FTSE and Sterling Brexit Trading, Deconstruction of the EU Referendum Result - 29th June 16
Stock Market Bounce May be Over - 28th June 16
Stock Market Meltdown Likely to Drive Gold Towards $1,500 - 28th June 16
Brexit Victory over the EU Globalists - 28th June 16
Brexit Psyop: Greenspan Falsely Blames the Brits for the Crash and Chaos to Follow - 28th June 16
Greenspan Calls Brexit a ‘Terrible Outcome’ as Euro Area Tested - 27th June 16
Stock Market SPX Below Mid-Cycle Support - 27th June 16
Best Holidays for Summer 2016 - 27th June 16
Another Stocks Bear Market? - 27th June 16
BBC EU Referendum Result Highlights - YouGov, Markets, Bookmakers, Pollsters ALL WRONG! - 26th June 16
Investors Map Post-Brexit Strategies Amid Global Market Upheaval - 26th June 16
Gold Price Weekly COT Update - 26th June 16
First the UK, then Scotland ... then Texas? - 26th June 16
Stocks Bear Market Resumes or Just More Noise - 26th June 16
Gold And Silver: Security, And BREXIT - 25th June 16
Dow, Euro & Brexit Recap - 25th June 16
Resistance Holding Gold Stocks after Brexit - 25th June 16
Venezuela vs. Ecuador (Chavismo vs. Chavismo Dollarized) - 25th June 16
Gold, Silver And PM Stocks Summer Doldrums Risk - 24th June 16
Here’s Why China “Economic Hard-Landing” Worries Are Overblown - 24th June 16
Jubilee Jolt: Markets Crash, Gold Skyrockets as Britain Takes Brexit - 24th June 16
BrExit Morning - New Dawn for Britain, Independence Day! - 24th June 16
LEAVE Wins EU Referendum - Sterling and FTSE Hit Hard, Pollsters, Bookies and Markets All WRONG! - 24th June 16
Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win - 24th June 16
EU Referendum Shock Results Putting BrExit LEAVE in the Lead Hitting Sterling Hard - 24th June 16
Final Opinion Poll Gives REMAIN 52% Lead, Bookmakers, Markets and Pollsters ALL Back REMAIN Win - 23rd June 16
Does BREXIT Matter? Outlook for Sterling - 23rd June 16
Keep Calm and Vote BrExit - Last Chance to Break Free of EU Superstate - 23rd June 16
Here’s the Foreign Policy Trump and Clinton Really Want - 23rd June 16
Details Behind Semiconductor Stocks Leadership - 23rd June 16
Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - 23rd June 16
BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN - 22nd June 16
Proof that the Gold Bears are Wrong - 22nd June 16
Here’s a Trillion-Dollar Investment Opportunity for Those Few with No Debt - 22nd June 16
BrExit to Save Europe from Climate Change Refugee Migration Apocalypse - 22nd June 16
Increase In U.S. Rig Count Will Not Cap Oil Prices - 22nd June 16
Are Copper and China Stocks Set to Rally? - 22nd June 16
SPX May Break Its Trendline - 22nd June 16
Believe it or Not: More Kids Live At Home Now than Since The Great Depression - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Latest Opinion Polls Show LEAVE Halting REMAINs Surge - 21st June 16
British Pound Outlook - BREXIT, Europe and You - Does your vote matter? - 21st June 16
Fascist Victory Behind the European Union - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Opinion Polls Analysis Shows Strong Momentum in REMAINs Favour - 21st June 16
Is It Time to Dump Gold and Buy Platinum? - 21st June 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Market Volaility

Gold Bullion Up, Gold Stocks Get Pummeled

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Nov 15, 2012 - 04:52 AM GMT

By: Bob_Kirtley

Commodities

It’s been another one of those odd ball trading sessions where gold prices managed to finish the day up $2.50 to close at $1727.40/oz, but the gold mining stocks, as evidenced by The AMEX Gold BUGS (Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks) Index, known as the HUI, fell 21.55 points to 447.96 or a staggering 4.59%.


If we look back two years to the start of 2011, gold was trading at around $1400.00/oz so we can clearly see an increase in its value. At the same time the HUI was trading at around 560 so we can clearly see that this sector has suffered a decrease in value. So those investors who are looking for leverage to the price of gold will have to garner considerable expertise as stock pickers in order to beat the average performance of the gold mining sector. This is difficult to achieve as not everyone has the time that is required to become an expert in such matters. We would also inquire as to why one would take such a risk when the acquisition of physical gold is still relatively easy and it is outperforming the gold bugs index. The operation of mining is fraught with difficulty so one should expect the 'unforeseen' to make an appearance from time to time and totally disrupt a mines production schedule. There is also the political risk to be considered, an election can bring with it a new leadership who may require a bigger slice of the profits. Let’s face it, there are not too many countries that don’t need extra funding at the moment and asking more from a profitable miner would appear to be a reasonable request.

Back to what happened today. The markets in general also had a bad day with the DOW losing 1.45% and the S&P500 down 1.39%. One swallow does not make a summer as they say, but this is not the first time that the gold mining stocks have been sold off when the underlying asset has remained relatively stable. It also raises the possibility that gold mining stocks are being classified as general stocks so when the market sells off, the mining stocks are also sold off. This is something that we will need to watch carefully in future as it could well be a case of the baby being thrown out with the bath water.

We have been wary of gold mining stocks for some time now and we are still not convinced that they are the best vehicle for gaining exposure to gold prices in this bull market. If they remain neck and neck with gold then the physical metal is the obvious choice, as it is not worth shouldering the additional risks of mining without the reward of leverage.

As investors we are indeed looking to maximize our profits and actively seek out leverage to gold prices. For the last three years or so we have found that trading options in the gold sector has generated better returns than the stocks and until that position is reversed we will not be increasing our exposure to stocks. In fact should the situation revert to the stocks outperforming gold prices then an option on a stock would provide us with a form of double leverage. Imagine it for a moment, gold prices rise by 2%, gold stocks rise by 5% and those stock options gain say, 50%, now there’s a mouthwatering thought. We are not dreaming, we do believe that the opportunity will present itself, maybe not just yet, but it will come and when it does we will let you know, as we pounce on it.

Go gently as its treacherous out there these days.

Have a good one.

Bob Kirtley

Email:bob@gold-prices.biz

URL: www.silver-prices.net

URL: www.skoptionstrading.com

To stay updated on our market commentary, which gold stocks we are buying and why, please subscribe to The Gold Prices Newsletter, completely FREE of charge. Simply click here and enter your email address. Winners of the GoldDrivers Stock Picking Competition 200

DISCLAIMER : Gold Prices makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided on this site. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This website represents our views and nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this website. We may or may not hold a position in these securities at any given time and reserve the right to buy and sell as we think fit.

Bob Kirtley Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife