Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.SNP Offers Labour Deadly Death Embrace Alliance, Holding England to Ransom, Destroy UK From Within - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold And Silver – Most Widely Used Currency In Western World? Stupidity - Michael_Noonan
3.Election Forecast 2015 - Coalition Economic Recovery vs Labour Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Election Forecast 2015 - Debates Boost Labour Into Opinion Polls Seats Lead - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Why are Interest Rates So Low? Ben Bernanke, Confused as Ever, Starts His Own Blog to Prove It - Mike_Shedlock
6.Leaders Debate Election 2015 - Natalie Bennett Green Party Convincing Anti-Austerity More Debt Argument - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Labour Economic Collapse vs Coalition Recovery - UK Election Forecast 2015 - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
8.China’s Stock Market Mania; How High can Red-chips Fly? - Gary_Dorsch
9.Gold and Misery, Strange Bedfellows - 31st Mar 15 - Dan_Norcini
10.Ed Miliband Debate Election 2015 Analysis - Labour Spending, Debt and Economic Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 5 days
Sheffield Hallam Election Battle 2015, School Places Crisis, Can Nick Clegg Win? - 26th Apr 15
Stocks Bull Market Looks to Resume - 25th Apr 15
Gold And Silver - The U.S. Is A Corporation. Precious Metals Stand In The Way - 25th Apr 15
When the Nuclear Money Option Fails - 25th Apr 15
The War on Cash Special Report - 25th Apr 15
China Economic Slowdown Story - Why “Didi Dache” Is a Phrase You Need to Know - 25th Apr 15
The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Death of the Republic - 25th Apr 15
Stock Splitting Caused the Stock Market Crash - 25th Apr 15
China Stock Market Parabolic Mania’s Global Risk - 24th Apr 15
What Will Happen to You When the U.S. Dollar Collapses? - 24th Apr 15
Why 2 of U.S. Dollar's Recent Bottoms Have 1 Thing In Common - 24th Apr 15
UK Economy Debt Timebomb Will Explode After Election - 24th Apr 15
Are Gold Stocks the Cheapest Ever? - 24th Apr 15
God, the Stock Market and Pascal's Wager - 24th Apr 15
Greedy Insurers Are in for a Nasty Surprise – Positioning You for Big Profits - 24th Apr 15
Four Things Missing From Obama’s First-Ever Energy Review - 24th Apr 15
How to Grow a Regenerative Medicine Industry - 23rd Apr 15
Stocks and Bonds Seven Year of Negative Returns; Fraudulent Promises - 23rd Apr 15
The Existential Danger To The Euro Is Elections - 23rd Apr 15
Stock Market No Clear Direction As Investors React To Quarterly Earnings Releases - 23rd Apr 15
Is China The Next United States? - 23rd Apr 15
U.S. Oil Glut: How High Can It Go? - 23rd Apr 15
Distorted Financial System Expect Deflation, Inflation And Hyperinflation - 23rd Apr 15
What McDonald’s Corporate Earnings Report Is Really Telling You - 23rd Apr 15
Gold Price Forecast to Become Priceless - 23rd Apr 15
FDIC Plots a Bank Heist Involving YOUR Accounts - 23rd Apr 15
$GOLD Price Year 2007 Again - 23rd Apr 15
Stocks Bubble - The Spread between Stock Prices and GDP is Blowing Out - 23rd Apr 15
Ukraine War - When Did We All Become Murderers? - 23rd Apr 15
Libya Crisis - EU Leaders Are Indicted for Nazi-Style Crimes against Humanity - 22nd Apr 15
Why Alternative Energy Isn’t Taking It on the Chin Despite Low Oil Prices - 22nd Apr 15
Bill Gross - German 10-Year Bunds Short of a Life Time - 22nd Apr 15
How to Profit from the Drop in the Oil Price - 22nd Apr 15
The U.S. Dollar's Move Is More Dangerous than You Think - 22nd Apr 15
Apple Watch Means Apple Will Become Worlds First $1 Trillion Stock - 22nd Apr 15
Half a Stocks Bubble Off Dead Center - 22nd Apr 15
They Said Go to College - Learning to become Debt Slaves - 22nd Apr 15
Best Cash ISA 2015/16, Instant and Fixed Savings Interest Rates, New Flexible Withdrawal / Deposit Rule - 22nd Apr 15
Unsound Banking: Why Most of the World's Banks Are Headed for Collapse - 21st Apr 15
Bitcoin Recent Low Price Volatility Might Be Deceptive - 21st Apr 15
Currency Wars Back As Russia Buys Gold - One Million Ounces in March Alone - 21st Apr 15
The Greece 'Grexit' Issue and the Problem of Free Trade - 21st Apr 15
Why Europe Lets People Drown - 21st Apr 15
Wealth Destruction for the 99.9 Percent - 21st Apr 15
SNP Publish England's Suicide Note as Pollsters Still Forecast Labour-SNP Election Disaster - 21st Apr 15
Characteristics of Extremely Over-Indebted Economies - 21st Apr 15
Trader Education Week -- a Free Event to Help You Learn to Spot Trading Opportunities - 21st Apr 15
Gold & Silver Alert: Silver Stocks’ Signal - 20th Apr 15
Now is the Time to Buy Resource Stocks, Especially Gold Equities - 20th Apr 15
DJ Transportation & Utility Averages Suggest Stocks Bull Market Is Over - 20th Apr 15
Crude Oil Price Bull Market Hope - 20th Apr 15
Stock Market Bears Get Slaughtered Despite Greece Counting Down to Grexit Financial Armageddon - 20th Apr 15
The Rise of the Paper Machines - 20th Apr 15
Gold and Silver Inflection Point - 20th Apr 15
SP500: A Butcher's Stock Market (Chop Chop Chop) - 20th Apr 15
Are Stock Market Bears Slowly Gaining Control? - 20th Apr 15
Sugar Commodity Price Bear Rally - 19th Apr 15
Avoid the Spread of the Stock Market "China Syndrome" - 19th Apr 15
Stock Market Going Nowhere Fast - 19th Apr 15
An Easy Way to Profit From the Two Biggest Trends in the Stock Market - 19th Apr 15
No Scripture Is Divine, Authentic and Beyond the Creation of the Human Brain - 19th Apr 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

US Historic Bubble

Silver Major Uptrend Underway, Not to Late to Go Long

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Nov 25, 2012 - 10:49 AM GMT

By: Clive_Maund

Commodities

Recent action in silver has been very bullish. It barely paid lip service to the technical requirement to drop back and form a Right Shoulder to its Head-and-Shoulders bottom before breaking out of this base pattern back last Tuesday, without waiting for either gold to break out, or for the dollar to break down. When gold did actually break out on Friday, and the dollar broke down, it built on these achievements by breaking clear above the resistance near to its 50-day moving average.


On its 6-month chart we can see this strong action and how it is already on its way, launching into a new uptrend. In the last update we detailed 2 points to buy, 1 on a dip to about $31.50 to form the Right Shoulder. It did dip a little, but not so far, so we missed that chance to buy. The other point to buy was given as being on a closing break above $33 - that happened last Tuesday, so that's when we were in, theoretically at least, and thus we caught the surge on Friday. It should carry on up now, with occasional pauses to consolidate, and the MACD indicator, which is still close to neutrality, shows that there is plenty of upside potential from here before it becomes overstretched.

Silver 6-Month Chart

The 3-year chart is useful as it makes clear the importance of the nearby resistance level in the $35 - $37.50 area. This resistance level has turned the price back 3 times over the past 14 months, including the recent highs in September and early October, so it will be an important positive technical development when the price breaks above this resistance. Once it does it should run swiftly at the next resistance level, but this one, and the one approaching the highs, are not so strong and once the price succeeds in clearing all these resistance levels and breaking out to clear new highs, then upside momentum should build quickly.

Silver 3-Year Chart

The long-term 13-year chart for silver, which shows the bullmarket in its entirety, is very interesting. Although it is obvious at first glance that silver is in a major uptrend, it is not that easy to immediately define the boundaries of this uptrend. Normally would draw a trendline under the lows, but on this occasion the uptrend is better defined by a trendline drawn across the highs. Searching then for a parallel lower trendline that fits, we find that if we ignore the freak 2008 lows, we get the fairly tidy parallel trendline fit shown. This is very important, as the correct definition of this uptrend enables us to define a probable target for the next major uptrend. As we can see, if silver now goes for a completed run at the upper boundary of this uptrend, and it looks likely given the terrible outlook for the dollar, then we could easily see it hit a target in the $90 area for the move starting now, which is not bad! With the price having just broken out of the corrective downtrend in force from the wild April ' May 2011 highs, this major uptrend is believed to have just started.

Silver 13-Year Chart

The recent silver COTs have led to us adopting an excessively cautious stance in the past few weeks, as it turned out. While the Commercial short and Large Spec long positions certainly remain at a high level, and should be noted, there is nothing to say that these cannot expand to much higher levels during a continued uptrend, so that they 'fly off the scale'. In addition, as we can also see on this chart, Open Interest is continuing to grow at a rapid rate. This is bullish and it is what preceded the 3 biggest ramps in the silver bullmarket to date.

Silver COT

The following chart, courtesy of The Scarborough Bullion Desk in England ' Scarborough is a seaside town on the east coast of England which is famous, not just for the Scarborough Bullion Desk, but also for beach holidays for those who are into hypothermia in a big way ' is most interesting as it shows the ballooning of Open Interest on 3 occasions ahead of the 3 biggest price ramps of the silver bullmarket - now it's doing it again. Forget the scaling, which is awful, just compare the price with the Open Interest. Those of you who are familiar with silver price action in recent years will readily figure it out.

Silver Open Interest

The outlook for the dollar is terrible - it has just broken lower from the Right Shoulder peak of a large Head-and-Shoulders top, and once it breaks down from the entire pattern it will be headed a lot lower. This is what looks set to be a big driver for the expected major uptrend in gold and silver. We look at the latest dollar charts in the parallel Gold Market update.

In conclusion, silver is viewed as having broken out last week to start a MAJOR uptrend, and thus it is certainly not too late to go long or add to existing positions, and one can guard against the (now considered remote) possibility of this rally being a B-wave trap by simply placing stops, either below the support at the Right Shoulder low at $32, or below the early November lows.

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

For billing & subscription questions: subscriptions@clivemaund.com

© 2012 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Clive Maund Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014