Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.US Dollar Crashes, Gold And Bitcoin Skyrocket As Economic Recovery Lie Is Exposed - Jeff_Berwick
2.Now Obama Warns Americans to ‘Be Prepared’ for Disaster… What Does He Know? - Jeff_Berwick
3.EU Referendum - Britain's Immigration / Migrant Crisis Explained - Nadeem_Walayat
4.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, Vote LEAVE an Act of Defiance! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Prominent Billionaire Investors Warn of Financial Crash, Quietly Position Themselves - MoneyMetals
6.Bankers Warn of BrExit Financial Armageddon if British People Vote for Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bad U.S. Jobs Report Prompts Stocks Bear Market Rally Towards New All Time Highs! - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold And Silver – Friday May Have Marked A Pivotal Turnaround - Michael_Noonan
9.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, the Illusion of Democracy and Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Felix Zulauf: Monetary Stimulation Creates Bubbles, Not Prosperity Nor Growth - GoldandLiberty
Free Silver
Last 7 days
Venezuela vs. Ecuador (Chavismo vs. Chavismo Dollarized) - 25th June 16
Gold, Silver And PM Stocks Summer Doldrums Risk - 24th June 16
Here’s Why China “Economic Hard-Landing” Worries Are Overblown - 24th June 16
Jubilee Jolt: Markets Crash, Gold Skyrockets as Britain Takes Brexit - 24th June 16
BrExit Morning - New Dawn for Britain, Independence Day! - 24th June 16
LEAVE Wins EU Referendum - Sterling and FTSE Hit Hard, Pollsters, Bookies and Markets All WRONG! - 24th June 16
Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win - 24th June 16
EU Referendum Shock Results Putting BrExit LEAVE in the Lead Hitting Sterling Hard - 24th June 16
Final Opinion Poll Gives REMAIN 52% Lead, Bookmakers, Markets and Pollsters ALL Back REMAIN Win - 23rd June 16
Does BREXIT Matter? Outlook for Sterling - 23rd June 16
Keep Calm and Vote BrExit - Last Chance to Break Free of EU Superstate - 23rd June 16
Here’s the Foreign Policy Trump and Clinton Really Want - 23rd June 16
Details Behind Semiconductor Stocks Leadership - 23rd June 16
Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - 23rd June 16
BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN - 22nd June 16
Proof that the Gold Bears are Wrong - 22nd June 16
Here’s a Trillion-Dollar Investment Opportunity for Those Few with No Debt - 22nd June 16
BrExit to Save Europe from Climate Change Refugee Migration Apocalypse - 22nd June 16
Increase In U.S. Rig Count Will Not Cap Oil Prices - 22nd June 16
Are Copper and China Stocks Set to Rally? - 22nd June 16
SPX May Break Its Trendline - 22nd June 16
Believe it or Not: More Kids Live At Home Now than Since The Great Depression - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Latest Opinion Polls Show LEAVE Halting REMAINs Surge - 21st June 16
British Pound Outlook - BREXIT, Europe and You - Does your vote matter? - 21st June 16
Fascist Victory Behind the European Union - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Opinion Polls Analysis Shows Strong Momentum in REMAINs Favour - 21st June 16
Is It Time to Dump Gold and Buy Platinum? - 21st June 16
Could Central Bankers Be Gold and Silver's BIGGEST Allies? - 20th June 16
Words Still Mean Things – Brexit With Graham Mehl - 20th June 16
Baroness Warsi the Manchurian Candidate Quits LEAVE for REMAIN, Boris Johnson Next? - 20th June 16
FTSE Soars, Stock Markets Bounce on LEAVE Polls Surge, Bookmakers Widen BrExit Odds - 20th June 16
Brexit Would Trigger Devolution of Europe - 20th June 16
Stock Market Week Of Uncertainty - 20th June 16
Will Gold’s Bullish Price Chart Outperform Gold’s 5 Bearish Indicators? - 20th June 16
Bonds And Stocks At All-Time Highs: Are Markets Confused Or Broken? - 20th June 16
Silver Sleeping On the Job - 19th June 16
BrExit Odds Sink, REMAIN Polls Boost by Jo Cox Killing by Radical Right Extremist, Conspiracy? - 19th June 16
How Elliott Waves Tell You When to "Jump In" & When to "Jump Out" of Markets - 18th June 16
Stock Market Inflection Point During Bifurcation - 18th June 16
Gold And Silver – Insanity Is World “Norm.” Keep Stacking! - 18th June 16
Gold Stocks - Bull Markets that Follow Epic Bears - 18th June 16
The Fed Giveth and the Gold Bullion Banks Taketh Away… - 17th June 16
Brexit: "The Vote Heard Around the World" - 17th June 16
Gold Stocks Summer Breakout? - 17th June 16
Stock Investors Get Higher Returns and More Dividend Income - In Less Time With Less Risk - 17th June 16
How to Use the Gold-to-Silver Ratio? - 17th June 16
Inflation, Deflation & Associated Trading Prospects - 17th June 16
Overnight Markets Struggling to Stay Flat - 17th June 16
Gold Price Surges to Highest in Nearly Two Years On Central Bank and Brexit Haven Demand - 17th June 16
Stock Market Thinking Upside Down; Dow 18k Still Key - 17th June 16
Jo Cox MP Terror Attack Killing Claimed for "Britain First" - Witness Report - 17th June 16
Stock Market, Iron Ore, Bitcoin – Is Silver Next for Chinese Momentum Investors? - 16th June 16
EU Referendum Campaigning Suspended Following Shooting of MP Jo Cox, Suspect Named as Tommy Mair - 16th June 16
Why People are Migrating to the UK, Illegal Immigration, Housing Crisis Consequences - 16th June 16
Stocks Fluctuate Following Recent Decline - Bottom Or Just Pause Before Another Leg Down? - 16th June 16
The US Consumer-Driven Economy Has Hit a Brick Wall - 16th June 16
Bitcoin Price Going Parabolic Again, Now At $730 and Up 60%+ In Last Three Weeks - 16th June 16
China's Hard Landing Has Already Begun! - 16th June 16
Crude Oil Price - Oil Bears vs. Support Zone - 16th June 16
Central Bankers Are Wrong About Inflation and Deflation - 15th June 16
Alignment Of The Dow, Interest Rates, Debt and Silver Cycles Will Deliver A Fatal Blow - 15th June 16
Stock Market Bounce May be Over - 15th June 16
EU Referendum: Have the Bookmakers Got it Wrong? LEAVE Opinion Polls Lead - 15th June 16
Gold Price Rally - 15th June 16
How to Invest for Brexit Report - 15th June 16
Stock Market Short of the Decade? - 15th June 16
Stock Market Sell Off Coming! - 14th June 16
QE - The Good, Bad & Ugly - 14th June 16
This Demographic Shift Makes Our Social Security Useless - 14th June 16
Gold Stocks Ultimate Objective in a World of Monetary Transition - 14th June 16
Philosophy of the New World Order - 14th June 16
The Brexit Game - Boris Johnson vs David Cameron EU Referendum Zombies - 14th June 16
EU Referendum: LEAVE Opinion Poll Lead of 51% to 49% Whilst Bookmaker Odds Still Strongly Favour REMAIN - 14th June 16
George Soros Making Big Bets on Gold - 14th June 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

The Great American Economic Rebound Has Just Begun

Economics / Economic Recovery Feb 13, 2013 - 02:23 PM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Economics

Martin Hutchinson writes: The U.S. manufacturing renaissance is not just a fantasy - it is actually happening. Jobs that had been outsourced to China and elsewhere really are returning to the United States.

Believe it or not, this "reshoring" already has reversed the long, steady decline of manufacturing jobs in the U.S.

In fact, since 2010 America has added roughly 500,000 manufacturing jobs, an increase of 4.3%.


The economic and investment implications of this reversal are considerable to say the least.

With the disadvantages to manufacturing overseas growing each year, it's no wonder reshoring is beginning to become a major trend.

One of the drivers is cost-especially as it relates to "cheap Chinese labor." As it turns out it's not that cheap anymore.

Three Keys to a Manufacturing Resurgence
According to an HSBC study quoted in the Financial Times, real wages in China's coastal areas have risen 350% in the last 11 years. Demographics are only accelerating the trend toward higher wages.

Last year, China's working age population fell for the first time, by 3.5 million to 937.5 million.

That means the endless supply of young workers from farms in China's rural areas is drying up, pushing China's wages up even further. Already, the country's balance of payments surplus has disappeared, and China's manufacturing costs, adjusted for productivity, have increased from 20% of U.S. costs to some 50%.

That still gives China an advantage in direct labor costs, but the additional costs of international sourcing must also be considered. When transportation, duties, supply chain risks, and other costs are fully accounted for, the cost savings of manufacturing in China begins to diminish.

In any case, unless there's a major downturn in China, its overall competitiveness is likely to continue to decrease.

Of course, the more excitable commentators like to claim that China's cost increases alone will push manufacturing back to the U.S. But the truth is that's nonsense.

Here's why.

There are many other low-wage emerging market countries with decent political and economic stability, all of which have had their competitiveness enhanced by the same Internet and mobile telephony that has pushed Chinese outsourcing ahead.

As such it only follows that the return to U.S. manufacturing from rising Chinese costs alone would be modest.

But there's another factor involved here - and this one is home grown.

The second thing bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. is the rise of fracking techniques for the immense U.S. shale gas deposits. That's different than the oil shale fracking which is unlikely to affect U.S. competitiveness much, because oil can be transported fairly readily (though in the short term excess production from Canadian tar sands has made oil much cheaper there).

However, gas is expensive to transport without an infrastructure of pipelines, which don't exist in most places. With the arrival of shale gas fracking, the United States now has a substantial energy cost advantage for applications which can efficiently use gas to supply energy for local plants--especially those near these shale gas formations.

Finally, in the long run a third U.S. cost advantage may reappear. It is the cost of capital.

With the world's most advanced and developed capital markets, the U.S. has traditionally had the lowest cost of capital- combining the lowest cost of debt with the greatest ease of raising equity for medium-sized companies.

Unfortunately, Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke have lost this U.S advantage. By making money easy to get at cheap rates, they have driven the banking system and international investors to invest in emerging markets, lowering their cost of capital artificially.

Whereas previously their cheap labor was offset by expensive capital, today their labor is still cheap, while their capital is also a little more expensive than in the U.S. For instance, when the near-bankrupt, impoverished socialist Bolivia can borrow $1 billion for 10 years at less than 5%, the U.S. capital cost advantage has effectively disappeared.

Of course, with some countries it's not coming back.

China has $3 trillion in foreign reserves and a very high savings rate. Under those circumstances it's going to get all the capital it needs at a cheap price.

But lesser countries, like Vietnam, India and most of Africa, will find capital expensive again once U.S. monetary policy has stopped creating money artificially. That will increase the cost advantage of U.S. manufacturing, at least in some cases.

Of course, who knows when Bernankeism will finally end. My guess is that a crisis will precipitate a return to sanity, but of course emerging markets will suffer in that crisis, as they did in 2008.

How to Invest in the Manufacturing Renaissance
To judge where to put a factory in the U.S. and get the best cost advantage, you need to look at where the gas is, and also where the workforce is abundant.

North Dakota, for example, is unlikely to get a big influx of factories from the Bakken shale. There are barely enough people there to get the gas itself out, and the boom has pushed the unemployment rate down to 4% and brought a massive housing shortage.

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania (and parts of New York and Ohio) have the gigantic Marcellus shale and lots of unemployed workers. However in these states there's another problem: Heavy unionization and no right-to-work laws which makes labor expensive and potentially recalcitrant. My guess is, these states will benefit less than they should from shale gas manufacturing.

The best bets are places like Michigan, where there is the substantial Antrim shale, but also a new right-to-work law, reducing the power of the unions and making labor potentially cheaper.

With high unemployment and good manufacturing capabilities, Michigan could see major manufacturing investments in coming years. Similarly Texas has gas, a steady supply of workers, a right-to-work law and a favorable business climate; it should benefit accordingly.

As for individual companies, it's worth researching in detail, bearing in mind that a modest return to U.S. manufacturing won't benefit General Electric (NYSE:GE) much, for example, because of its size.

However, you might look at the big chemical companies like Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW) (based in Midland, MI) which recently split from the National Association of Manufacturers because of the latter's support for natural gas exports.

That's because the chemical business by its nature is gas intensive. Obviously for companies like DOW, if the gas can't be exported, it becomes cheaper here in the U.S.

You might also look at Irving,Texas-based Fluor Corp. (NYSE: FLR) , which will get a large chunk of any business building chemical plants and its share of industrial construction in general.

The great American rebound has just begun.

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2013/02/13/the-great-american-rebound-has-just-begun/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2013 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife