Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? - - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold Price Downtrend Looks Set to Continue - Clive_Maund
4.Commodity Prices Set To Plunge Below 2008 Lows - Austin_Galt
5.New Greece Drachma Revealed Amid Bank Runs - Greeks Buy Gold Sovereigns - GoldCore
6.Gold and Silver Stocks or General Stock Market Indices? - Rambus_Chartology
7.“Forgive Us Our Debts” – Only Way To Prevent Economic Meltdown - GoldCore
8.UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election - Nadeem_Walayat
9.12 Reasons Why Barry Ritholtz and Many UK Experts Are Mistaken On Gold - GoldCore
10.Recession is On The Way; Beat The Stock Market Crowd, Panic Now! - Mike_Shedlock
Last 5 days
Cameron Fears Debates Would Cost Tories the Election - Potential 12 Seat Swing to Labour - 6th Mar 15
Apple Major New Gold Buyer - Propel Gold Price Higher? - 6th Mar 15
Stock Market Dow Theory Divergence - 6th Mar 15
Ukraine, Neocons and Neonazis - 6th Mar 15
UK Election 2015 - Cameron Housing Bribe - 200,000 Discounted Homes for 400,000 Voters - 6th Mar 15
The Anthropology of Finance - 6th Mar 15
Portfolios, Insurance, and Gold - 6th Mar 15
Gold and Silver Justice For Some - Currency Wars - ECB Deposit Rates To -3% - 5th Mar 15
How to Play the Big Broker Stocks When Interest Rates Rise - 5th Mar 15
Here's What Stock Market Bulls Might Be Overlooking - 5th Mar 15
U.S. Soaring Crude Oil Stocks - Cushing and Gulf Coast Storage Filling Up Fast - 5th Mar 15
Japan's Intelligence Reform Inches Forward - 5th Mar 15
Gold Miner Index Breadth Oscillator, Forward Reckoning® - 5th Mar 15
Gold Price Set To Plunge Below $600 - 5th Mar 15
UK General Election Forecast 2015 - Immigration Crisis, SNP Insurgency and Housing Mini-Boom - 5th Mar 15
Spock, Debt and the Kingdom of Denmark - 5th Mar 15
The Psychology of a Sideways Stock Market Trend - 5th Mar 15
Freedom from America - Getting Out Of Dodge - 5th Mar 15
What Top Hedge Fund Managers Really Think About Gold - 4th Mar 15
U.S. Dollar Strategic Backfire On U.S. Government Policy - 4th Mar 15
Canada’s Central Banks Orders End to ‘Spocking’ Of Canadian Dollar - Defacing Debasing Currencies - 4th Mar 15
Chicago's Only Possible Salvation: A Detroit-Like Bankruptcy - 4th Mar 15
Gold Price and Mining Stocks Decline Together - 3rd Mar 15
Financial Slaughter - The Silence of the Lambs - 3rd Mar 15
Bondholders “Bailed In” In Austria – New Banking Crisis? - 3rd Mar 15
How to Profit from the Coming Oil Price Crunch - 3rd Mar 15
Is Japan Zimbabwe? Could Japan go Hyperinflation? - 3rd Mar 15
Bill Gross Says Fed May Raise Rates 25 Basis Points in June - 3rd Mar 15
The Secret Behind My Hedge Fund Trade on U.S. Housing Market - 3rd Mar 15
BLS CPI Lie - How's That Dsflation Working Out for You? - 3rd Mar 15
Tesla Bonfire of the Money Printers’ Vanities - 3rd Mar 15
Gold Demand in UK, Europe and U.S. – Reuters Interview GoldCore - 2nd Mar 15
Watch the Skies... for Investor Profits - 2nd Mar 15
How Investors Can Identify the Best Small-Cap Stocks - 2nd Mar 15
Gold and Silver - What If the Precious Metal Stocks Bulls are Back - 2nd Mar 15
Students Getting a PhD in Subprime Debt - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 3 - 2nd Mar 15
The Stock Market is in The Process of Major Top! - 2nd Mar 15
Stock Market Weakening Trend - 2nd Mar 15
Gold Price Glimmer of Hope - 1st Mar 15
Stock Markets Are Riding High on Thin Air - 1st Mar 15
Varoufakis vs. the Troika - Showdown in Athens - 1st Mar 15
Subprime Rising - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 2 - 1st Mar 15
Gold CoT Improving, But ... - 1st Mar 15
UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? - 28th Feb 15
UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others - 28th Feb 15
Stocks Bull Market Continues - 28th Feb 15
U.S. Debt Breaking Bad - 28th Feb 15
NATO Frankenstein - When Centralization Scales Beyond Our Control - 28th Feb 15
Gold And Silver Insanity Prevails; Precious Metals Without Direction - 28th Feb 15
Fed Raising U.S. Interest Rates - Shovelin’ Schmitt Against the Tide - 28th Feb 15
Don't Let This Stock Market Myth Cost You Your Gains - 28th Feb 15
Recession is On The Way; Beat The Stock Market Crowd, Panic Now! - 28th Feb 15
Stock Market Indexes Creeping Towards the Edge - 28th Feb 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The State of the Global Markets 2015

Should You Buy Stocks at New Lows? Or New Highs?

InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest Feb 26, 2013 - 11:18 PM GMT

By: DailyWealth

InvestorEducation

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: You might not agree with today's lesson... But it's based on numbers going back nearly 100 years.

Last month, I told you even though stocks are way up and hitting levels that have preceded major corrections in the past, it is NOT time to sell.


It might be scary to hang on with stocks near all-time highs. But as I explained, it's the right thing to do today.

And it's been the right thing to do throughout recent history. Let's take a look at the facts...

With our True Wealth Systems databases, we have the best financial data on the planet at our fingertips. We can test just about anything to find ideas that make money.

You see, when stocks hit a new 12-month high, people get scared... They sell. They get worried that the market must be about to fall. On the other hand, when stocks hit a new low, they might figure they're getting them "on sale."

So we tested which strategy works better: Buying near 52-week lows... or buying at 52-week highs. We looked at nearly 100 years of weekly data on the S&P 500 Index, not counting dividends.

You might be surprised at what we found...

After the stock market hits a 52-week high, the compound annual gain over the next year is 9.6%. That is a phenomenal outperformance over the long-term "buy and hold" return, which was 5.6% a year.

On the flip side, buying when the stock market is at or near new lows leads to terrible performance over the next 12 months... Specifically, buying anytime stocks are within 6% of their 52-week lows leads to compound annual gain of 0%. That's correct, no gain at all 12 months later.

Using monthly data, our True Wealth Systems databases go back to 1791. The results are similar... Buying at a 12-month high and holding for 12 months beats the return of buy-and-hold. And buying at a 12-month low and holding for a year does worse than buy-and-hold. Take a look...


The same holds true for a more recent time period, this time starting in 1950...


History's verdict is clear... You're much better off buying at new highs than at new lows.

You might not agree with it... but it's true.

We didn't "cherry pick" in our testing... We looked at 12-month lows and how stocks performed 12 months later. But you'll find similar results when you vary the number of months.

You might think you're getting a deal when you buy with the market at new lows. But it doesn't work.

And you might think buying at new highs "feels risky." But when it comes to the broad market, history shows you're better off buying at new highs than at new lows.

We're not making this stuff up... We're just asking our True Wealth Systems database for the facts... And these are the facts.

You might try to fight this... You might want to "catch a falling knife" and buy when stocks are at new lows. But if you do, realize you are fighting against more than 220 years of historical precedent.

Instead of fighting this... embrace it...

When the market hits a new high, DON'T sell. Enjoy it. New highs mean you're making money. And with history as your guide, you may have more new highs coming.

This idea can keep you from losing money by buying too early, and it can allow you to capture bigger gains by not selling too early. This is the big lesson. Don't forget it...

Good investing,

Steve

http://www.dailywealth.com

The DailyWealth Investment Philosophy: In a nutshell, my investment philosophy is this: Buy things of extraordinary value at a time when nobody else wants them. Then sell when people are willing to pay any price. You see, at DailyWealth, we believe most investors take way too much risk. Our mission is to show you how to avoid risky investments, and how to avoid what the average investor is doing. I believe that you can make a lot of money – and do it safely – by simply doing the opposite of what is most popular.

Customer Service: 1-888-261-2693 – Copyright 2013 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC. 1217 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Daily Wealth Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014