SPX just declined through Intermediate-term support this morning, raising the probability of a Flash Crash to 50% or more, IMO. The chances rise to 90% when SPX falls through its 50-day moving average at 1541.42 and the lower trendline of its Broadening Top at 1535.00.

This, combined with the damage done to gold, will have the margin desks calling in their marks after 2:00 pm. That is why the last Flash Crashes happened after 2:00 pm. Keep this in mind as the market deteriorates today.

The NYSE is margined to the hilt, so it won’t take much of a decline to flex some itchy trigger fingers.

Traders are starting to front-run the decline by increasing their hedges. VIX broke out above its prior high and appears to be set to run much higher.

I reset the EW wave structure in GLD to reflect the lack of impulse higher. That means the Head & Shoulders target is still viable before the next bounce in GLD. It appears that the margin desks will be calling our leveraged friends in GLD this afternoon as well.

After making a double zigzag Wave [2], UUP finally broke its bullish Wedge formation. It appears that Intermediate-term resistance and mid-Cycle resistance at 22.46-22.48 may provide a bit of a pullback, but the decline is broken. UUP/USD is about to launch one of the most powerful rallies seen of late.

The potential top in Primary Wave [3] is May 1.

Regards,

Tony

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