SPX just declined through Intermediate-term support this morning, raising the probability of a Flash Crash to 50% or more, IMO. The chances rise to 90% when SPX falls through its 50-day moving average at 1541.42 and the lower trendline of its Broadening Top at 1535.00.
This, combined with the damage done to gold, will have the margin desks calling in their marks after 2:00 pm. That is why the last Flash Crashes happened after 2:00 pm. Keep this in mind as the market deteriorates today.
The NYSE is margined to the hilt, so it won’t take much of a decline to flex some itchy trigger fingers.
Traders are starting to front-run the decline by increasing their hedges. VIX broke out above its prior high and appears to be set to run much higher.
I reset the EW wave structure in GLD to reflect the lack of impulse higher. That means the Head & Shoulders target is still viable before the next bounce in GLD. It appears that the margin desks will be calling our leveraged friends in GLD this afternoon as well.
After making a double zigzag Wave , UUP finally broke its bullish Wedge formation. It appears that Intermediate-term resistance and mid-Cycle resistance at 22.46-22.48 may provide a bit of a pullback, but the decline is broken. UUP/USD is about to launch one of the most powerful rallies seen of late.
The potential top in Primary Wave  is May 1.
Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web
We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.
If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at email@example.com .
Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com
As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals
Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only. There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.
Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive
© 2005-2013 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.