Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.US Paving the Way for Massive First Strike on North Korea Nuclear and Missile Infrastructure - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Trump Reset: US War With China, North Korea Nuclear Flashpoint - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Silver Junior Mining Stocks 2017 Q2 Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
4.Soaring Inflation Plunges UK Economy Into Stagflation, Triggers Government Pay Cap Panic! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.The Bitcoin Blueprint To Your Financial Freedom - Sean Keyes
6.North Korea 'Begging for War', 'Enough is Enough', is a US Nuclear Strike Imminent? - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Hits All-Time High and Smashes Through $5,000 As Gold Shows Continued Strength - Jeff_Berwick
8.2017 is NOT "Just Another Year" for the Stock Market: Here's Why - EWI
9.Gold : The Anatomy of the Bottoming Process - Rambus_Chartology
10.Bitcoin Falls 20% as Mobius and Chinese Regulators Warn - GoldCore
Last 7 days
Catalonia, Kurdistan, Patriotism, Flags and Referendums - 24th Sep 17
Two Key Indicators Show the S&P 500 Becoming the New ‘Cash’ - 24th Sep 17
The Felling of Sheffield's Big Street Trees 2017 - Dobcroft Road - 24th Sep 17
Advantages of Forex Trading - 24th Sep 17
Stocks, Gold, Dollar, Bitcoin Markets Analysis - 23rd Sep 17
How Will We Be Affected by a Series of Rate Hikes? - 23rd Sep 17
Fed Quantitative Tightening Impact on Stocks and Gold - 22nd Sep 17
Bitcoin & Blockchain: All Hype or Part of a Financial Revolution? - 22nd Sep 17
Pensions and Debt Time Bomb In UK: £1 Trillion Crisis Looms - 22nd Sep 17
Will North Korea Boost Gold Prices? Part I - 22nd Sep 17
USDJPY Leads the way for a Resurgent Greenback - 22nd Sep 17
Day Trading Guide for Dummies - 22nd Sep 17
Short-Term Uncertainty, As Stocks Fluctuate Along Record Highs - 21st Sep 17
4 Reasons Gold is Starting to Look Attractive as Cryptocurrencies Falter - 21st Sep 17
Should Liners Invest in Shipping Software Solutions and Benefits of Using Packaged Shipping Software - 21st Sep 17
The 5 Biggest Bubbles In Markets Today - 20th Sep 17
Infographic: The Everything Bubble Is Ready to Pop - 20th Sep 17
Americans Don’t Grasp The Magnitude Of The Looming Pension Tsunami That May Hit Us Within 10 Years - 20th Sep 17
Stock Market Waiting Game... - 20th Sep 17
Precious Metals Sector is on Major Buy Signal - 20th Sep 17
US Equities Destined For Negative Returns In The Next 7 Years - 3 Assets To Invest In Instead - 20th Sep 17
Looking For the Next Big Stock? Look at Design - 20th Sep 17
Self Employed? Understanding Business Insurance - 19th Sep 17
Stock Market Bubble Fortunes - 19th Sep 17
USD/CHF – Verification of Breakout or Further Declines? - 19th Sep 17
Blockchain Tech: Don't Say You Didn't Know - 19th Sep 17
The Fed’s 2% Inflation Target Is Pointless - 19th Sep 17
How To Resolve the Korean Conundrum  - 19th Sep 17
A World Doomed to a Never Ending War - 19th Sep 17
What is Backtesting? And Why You Need Backtesting System? - 19th Sep 17
These Two Articles Debunk The Biggest Financial Nonsense I See In The Media - 18th Sep 17
Bitcoin Price Crash 40% In 3 Days Underlining Gold’s Safe Haven Credentials - 18th Sep 17
The Sum of Risks – Global, Strategic, Political, and Financial - 18th Sep 17
The Netflix Of Canada’s Cannabis Boom - 18th Sep 17
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Either You Learn From The Events Of The Past Week, Or You Are Hopeless - 18th Sep 17
SPX 2500 … At Last! - 18th Sep 17
Inflation Lies, Lies and OMG More Lies - 18th Sep 17
How to Choose right Forex Trader? - 18th Sep 17
Who Has Shaped the World the Most? The Dozen Greatest Achievers - 17th Sep 17
Riding the ‘Slide’: Is This What the Next Stocks Bear Market Looks Like? - 17th Sep 17
Gold Up, Markets Fatigued As War Talk Boils Over - 17th Sep 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

Caution for Stock Market Bulls and Bears

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Jun 02, 2013 - 11:57 AM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Stock-Markets

The market is undergoing a correction, but it is enough to call it a top? No. More evidence is required before saying that the Fed has thrown in the towel. If it takes more fiat to keep prices inflated, it will be provided. The alternative would be too painful for investors, [not of concern for the Fed], and too embarrassing to admit to the fraud of QE-Infinity to keep the bubble intact.


The stock markets are the antithesis to gold and silver. The latter have an insatiable demand, as price has declined. The former is void of demand as price has risen to all time highs. The Fed has driven what participants there are to the markets because there are no viable "earning alternatives" to match "rising" stocks. The Fed has chosen to destroy retirees and anyone else seeking gains in interest bearing instruments as a vehicle for income in its efforts to keep the market [lie] alive.

Just as there has been demonstrated manipulation on the Precious Metals, via naked short selling that has no intent of ever delivering what was sold, [anyone else would go to jail for the practice], the same holds true for the stock market. So how valid are the charts? They are all we have, so they must be judged based on what they show. At some point, the reality of [lack of] supply and [false] demand will prevail. All anyone can do is read developing market activity, for it tells the most accurate story of who is winning the battle, and ultimately, the war

Here is what the charts say...

The starting point is to give recognition to the most important element in reading and understanding any chart, in any time frame, and that is the trend. Trends have a proven tendency to persist, and when a trend stops, it takes time to turn it around. There are always signs to act as a guide.

Since the 2009 low, price has been in a steady up trend, with a few corrections along the way. Corrections are a natural and healthy reaction within any trend. What we see for the month of May, [new highs], is a mid-range close. The market's message from that kind of close tells us that sellers more than met the efforts of buyers at the upper part of the highs. The current unfolding decline ran out of month before finishing, so we must deal with what is, as just described, for it could have been worse.

Yes, yes...woulda, coulda, shoulda; just stick with the facts as they are. The trend is up, and there is not enough evidence to say a change has occurred, or even may occur. The higher monthly time frame is more prevailing in effect than lower time frames, and it always makes sense to keep this in mind.

The weekly time frame supports the trend of the monthly, up, and shows no sign of any change, at least none that would warrant going against it, at present. The last two swing lows show how long they took to correct, and how many points in each decline, before resuming the up trend. Volume has increased over the last two weeks as price declined, and using close stops, or simply taking profits, in individual stocks makes sense, but the Fed Bubble has not yet burst, based on the current chart structure.

The daily is the most sensitive to change of the three time frames covered. Even here, one has to respect past activity, like the April correction, and the market's ability to recover and rally to new highs.

We can say that the trend is still up overall, but presently trading sideways. More price development is required in order to determine the character of the present correction. If this market is turning, and existing evidence does not support that conclusion, yet, we will be able to assess the quality of the next rally, as it unfolds, and make a more informed decision. We stress "as it unfolds" because there is no reason to "predict" or get ahead of the market until it tells us, beyond doubt, its intent.

If volume picks up on the next rally and closes are strong, overall, then we can expect higher price levels. If the developing price activity is weak, as in lower volume on rallies, poor closes, increased volume and greater ease of movement on declines, then we put ourselves in a position to be in harmony with the current trend development.

The track record of those who have been "predicting" a top and shorting the market while in an uptrend is very poor, so picking tops is not a profitable endeavor. Let the market reveal its message, and then follow along.

For right now, the message is one of caution, for both the bulls and the bears.

By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2013 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife