Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19
Boris Johnson's "Do or Die, Dead in a Ditch" Brexit Strategy - 11th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I - 11th Sep 19
Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting - 11th Sep 19
Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed - 11th Sep 19
Boris Johnson a Crippled Prime Minister - 11th Sep 19
Gold Significant Correction Has Started - 11th Sep 19
Reasons To Follow Experienced Traders In Automated Trading - 11th Sep 19
Silver's Sharp Reaction Back - 11th Sep 19
2020 Will Be the Most Volatile Market Year in History - 11th Sep 19
Westminister BrExit Extreme Chaos Puts Britain into a Pre-Civil War State - 10th Sep 19
Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally - 10th Sep 19
Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - 10th Sep 19
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future - 10th Sep 19
The Online Gaming Industry is Going Up - 10th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Help to Buy Scheme Prompts Panic Buying UK House Prices Boom

Housing-Market / UK Housing Jan 03, 2014 - 01:45 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

The Coalition government's March 2013 help to buy scheme, the extension of which to all properties rather than just new builds that itself was brought forward to the 1st of October 2013 from 1st of January 2014 has sparked panic buying amongst many thousands of prospective home buyers who had been finding it near impossible to build deposits of 20%-25% that mortgage lenders typically sought in terms of managing risk, however now the same mortgages can be secured with just 5% deposits which on the £600k valuation limit amounts to a huge difference between a previous deposit requirement of £120-£150k against £30k today under the help to buy guarantee scheme.


Three months on and over £1 billion has been committed under the help to buy scheme resulting in EXTRA demand of 6,000 housing market transactions. Whilst academics may argue that the number of extra transactions is relatively small i.e. at about 2000 per month amidst a total of around 70,000 (3%). However what the academics fail to comprehend is that bull and bear markets are made at the margins, and then driven by sentiment. Therefore a marginal increase in demand of 3% per month is enough to generate positive sentiment that gains momentum each month into a full blown house prices boom during 2014.

In an article ahead of the extension I laid out what to expect in terms of the ramping up the housing market into an election boom that at least targets a trend trajectory of 10% per annum during 2014. Especially as the news of the day is also accompanied by another wave of out of control immigration currently under way.

29 Sep 2013 - David Cameron Brings Forward Help to Buy Mortgages, Stoking House Prices Bubble, Election Boom

It's not rocket science, it's actually quite simple: Limited Supply + Quadruple Demand = House Prices Boom!

The strategy in bringing forward of the Help to Buy Scheme for all properties is clearly aimed at building on housing market sentiment towards a trend trajectory of average UK house prices rising at a rate of at least 10% per annum, which is precisely inline with my forecast momentum for UK house prices to be rising by 10% per annum as of October 2014 data, and all the way into Mid 2014.

Yours analyst waiting for the PANIC Buying headlines in the mainstream press. Forget under offers, it's offers OVER for an increasing number of areas of the country as I warned several weeks ago - Final Warning UK House Prices Boom Imminent!

The bottom line is to take this as your final warning for a UK house prices boom as those waiting on the sidelines have only a matter of weeks to act before housing market sentiment responds to a market that is rising at a rate of more than 10% per annum. The days of under offering for good houses in good locations is about to end

David Cameron prompted to respond to help to buy demand news and house price bubble fears replied - "Where we are today, house prices are still way below the peak they reached in 2007. Forecasters do not think they will get back to the level before the crash even in 2019. So there is no evidence of a problem."

Well, if the UK house prices trend pans out as I expect then average house prices will have reached their 2007 highs BEFORE the May 2015 general election and have soared far into the stratosphere by 2019 as I elaborate upon next.

UK House Prices Forecast 2014-2018

My recent in-depth analysis for UK house prices concluded in a detailed trend forecast for the next FIVE years from 2014 to 2018 that house prices target an average gain of 10% per year totaling 55% by the end of 2018 as illustrated below:

UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018 - Conclusion

This forecast is based on the non seasonally adjusted Halifax House prices index that I have been tracking for over 25 years. The current house prices index for November 2013 is 174,671, with the starting point for the house prices forecast being my interim forecast as of July 2013 and its existing trend forecast into Mid 2014 of 187,000. Therefore this house prices forecast seeks to extend the existing forecast from Mid 2014 into the end of 2018 i.e. for 5 full years forward.

My concluding UK house prices forecast is for the Halifax NSA house prices index to target a trend to an average price of £270,600 by the end of 2018 which represents a 55% price rise on the most recent Halifax house prices data £174,671, that will make the the great bear market of 2008-2009 appear as a mere blip on the charts as the following forecast trend trajectory chart illustrates:

Additionally, a video version of excerpts of the forecast analysis is available -

UK House Prices Forecast video

Also ensure to subscribe to my always free newsletter for regular housing market updates as well as FREE download of my New UK Housing Market ebook (available from mid January 2014) which includes the full analysis and many topics beyond forecast analysis such as -

  • A step by step guide of how to buy a house.
  • Analysis of buying vs renting
  • How to increase the value of your home
  • Managing your mortgage debt
  • Maintenance that can save you a lot of money long-term
  • Money saving low cost home improvements
  • Regional house prices analysis
  • Surveying properties - what to look for

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43818.html

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of four ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.

The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules