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Poor Jobs.... Intense Complacency... Stock Market Holding Of Course....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Jan 11, 2014 - 06:52 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

So naturally the market did well Friday, with the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) actually closing a few pennies above 184.00, although, by no means, far enough to call it a breakout. The Jobs Report was a true disaster, There were 74,000 jobs created versus the 200,000 those geniuses said it would be today. Only a 126,000 miss. So you would think the market would go away. You would think so anyway! It was not to be as there were periods of decent selling today, down near the breakdown level of 182.90 on the SPY. But each attempt was somehow bought up, allowing the SPY to close on the breakout at 184.00 (184.14). You really have to wonder what's going on here.


There is nothing out there to justify prices in this market, yet it never falls. It will, of course, but it hasn't yet. The complacency alone is reason enough for this market to get scalded. It doesn't even need a terrible Jobs Report. The sell-signal that exists on complacency is worth, potentially, 10-20% worth of correction. Add in a bad Jobs Report, and one would think the market would have been absolutely crushed today. The bears have to be hanging their heads here, and throwing up their hands as well as the dinners. There really seems to be a conspiracy against allowing this market to fall. You have to feel sorry for them in many ways. Injustice is never good. That is clearly the case here. The market has no right to be on the precipice of, yet, another breakout. However, it is, and we accept what the market gives us. Never fight the market.

The market is going to get the most important earnings of this quarter, between Tuesday and Thursday of next week, as all the key banks report their numbers. Those include Goldman Sachs Inc. (GS), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Citigroup, Inc. (C), and Wells Fargo & Company (WFC). If they all are, overall, well received, it's hard to imagine we won't break out. These stocks are leading this rally, and it's important they hold price. If they collapse on their reports, it's likely, though, of course, not guaranteed, that the market will finally attempt some real selling.

If the big-five start to fall with some force, they will take the market with it. So it's all about those earnings starting on Tuesday. The market won't be as anxious to find rotation, if the leaders take a hit as fear will seep in and bad numbers will come in from every front. The banks are the key now. They will probably be fine when you consider the constant help they are receiving from the Fed, but we'll get our taste buds wet starting Tuesday morning. If earnings, overall, hold up across the majority of sectors, one has to wonder just when the headache kicks in from the bull-bear spread. But, as always, we take it one day at a time. No other way in this market. It is certainly making less sense than usual. Disneyland lives on.

If the market holds true to form, we should see it hold on Monday, as it uses the excuse of waiting on the banks and what those numbers will look like. We closed on the breakout, so a gap up on Monday could send the bears running scared. With 184.00, the breakout level, and the market closing at 184.14, it's not yet officially strong enough above to call it a breakout. But the bears are nervous, which they should be. They pounce at some point on Monday, or they will lose any hope of sending this market reeling lower, unless earnings save them. But they shouldn't be counting on that. We watch closely how those banks report, and what the market is able to do in terms of running clear of 184.00 on the SPY. Slow and easy here.

Have a great weekend!

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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