Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? - - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold Price Downtrend Looks Set to Continue - Clive_Maund
4.Commodity Prices Set To Plunge Below 2008 Lows - Austin_Galt
5.New Greece Drachma Revealed Amid Bank Runs - Greeks Buy Gold Sovereigns - GoldCore
6.Gold and Silver Stocks or General Stock Market Indices? - Rambus_Chartology
7.“Forgive Us Our Debts” – Only Way To Prevent Economic Meltdown - GoldCore
8.UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election - Nadeem_Walayat
9.12 Reasons Why Barry Ritholtz and Many UK Experts Are Mistaken On Gold - GoldCore
10.Recession is On The Way; Beat The Stock Market Crowd, Panic Now! - Mike_Shedlock
Last 5 days
How to Play the Big Broker Stocks When Interest Rates Rise - 5th Mar 15
Here's What Stock Market Bulls Might Be Overlooking - 5th Mar 15
U.S. Soaring Crude Oil Stocks - Cushing and Gulf Coast Storage Filling Up Fast - 5th Mar 15
Japan's Intelligence Reform Inches Forward - 5th Mar 15
Gold Miner Index Breadth Oscillator, Forward Reckoning® - 5th Mar 15
Gold Price Set To Plunge Below $600 - 5th Mar 15
UK General Election Forecast 2015 - Immigration Crisis, SNP Insurgency and Housing Mini-Boom - 5th Mar 15
Spock, Debt and the Kingdom of Denmark - 5th Mar 15
The Psychology of a Sideways Stock Market Trend - 5th Mar 15
Freedom from America - Getting Out Of Dodge - 5th Mar 15
What Top Hedge Fund Managers Really Think About Gold - 4th Mar 15
U.S. Dollar Strategic Backfire On U.S. Government Policy - 4th Mar 15
Canada’s Central Banks Orders End to ‘Spocking’ Of Canadian Dollar - Defacing Debasing Currencies - 4th Mar 15
Chicago's Only Possible Salvation: A Detroit-Like Bankruptcy - 4th Mar 15
Gold Price and Mining Stocks Decline Together - 3rd Mar 15
Financial Slaughter - The Silence of the Lambs - 3rd Mar 15
Bondholders “Bailed In” In Austria – New Banking Crisis? - 3rd Mar 15
How to Profit from the Coming Oil Price Crunch - 3rd Mar 15
Is Japan Zimbabwe? Could Japan go Hyperinflation? - 3rd Mar 15
Bill Gross Says Fed May Raise Rates 25 Basis Points in June - 3rd Mar 15
The Secret Behind My Hedge Fund Trade on U.S. Housing Market - 3rd Mar 15
BLS CPI Lie - How's That Dsflation Working Out for You? - 3rd Mar 15
Tesla Bonfire of the Money Printers’ Vanities - 3rd Mar 15
Gold Demand in UK, Europe and U.S. – Reuters Interview GoldCore - 2nd Mar 15
Watch the Skies... for Investor Profits - 2nd Mar 15
How Investors Can Identify the Best Small-Cap Stocks - 2nd Mar 15
Gold and Silver - What If the Precious Metal Stocks Bulls are Back - 2nd Mar 15
Students Getting a PhD in Subprime Debt - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 3 - 2nd Mar 15
The Stock Market is in The Process of Major Top! - 2nd Mar 15
Stock Market Weakening Trend - 2nd Mar 15
Gold Price Glimmer of Hope - 1st Mar 15
Stock Markets Are Riding High on Thin Air - 1st Mar 15
Varoufakis vs. the Troika - Showdown in Athens - 1st Mar 15
Subprime Rising - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 2 - 1st Mar 15
Gold CoT Improving, But ... - 1st Mar 15
UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? - 28th Feb 15
UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others - 28th Feb 15
Stocks Bull Market Continues - 28th Feb 15
U.S. Debt Breaking Bad - 28th Feb 15
NATO Frankenstein - When Centralization Scales Beyond Our Control - 28th Feb 15
Gold And Silver Insanity Prevails; Precious Metals Without Direction - 28th Feb 15
Fed Raising U.S. Interest Rates - Shovelin’ Schmitt Against the Tide - 28th Feb 15
Don't Let This Stock Market Myth Cost You Your Gains - 28th Feb 15
Recession is On The Way; Beat The Stock Market Crowd, Panic Now! - 28th Feb 15
Stock Market Indexes Creeping Towards the Edge - 28th Feb 15
GGD Going for Mexican Gold - 27th Feb 15
Foreign Real Estate Is the New Swiss Bank Account - 27th Feb 15
10 Reasons Washington Has War Fever - 27th Feb 15
Gold and the Euro Tragedy, Iraq 3.0, Ukraine Conflict Three Ring Circus - 27th Feb 15
Deepak Chopra - New Age Genius or Bullshit Expert? - Video - 27th Feb 15 - Videos
New Greece Drachma Revealed Amid Bank Runs - Greeks Buy Gold Sovereigns - 27th Feb 15
Will Month Long Stocks Rally Continue? - 27th Feb 15
The Only Public Hedge Fund You Should Own - 27th Feb 15
UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election - 27th Feb 15
Why America is Ungovernable - The Republicans’ Civil War - 27th Feb 15
Gold vs Gold Stocks: Bullish Anomaly Developing? - 27th Feb 15
I Heart Capitalism, Nasdaq Stocks, Then And Now - 27th Feb 15
The Fed’s History of Assassination - 27th Feb 15 i
Gold Bull Market Forecast - Money Will Rotate Into These Dead Investments - 27th Feb 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The State of the Global Markets 2015

Stock Market Back Testing...Now What....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Feb 09, 2014 - 10:21 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

The market fell quite a bit from the first day of January and kept going pretty much until midweek this week. The market oscillators got very compressed lower, while the Dow was testing its 200-day exponential moving average. It told me that the market should be done selling for a while, and that a rally should take place, thus, the Spy long that was taken. The real question is once we tested the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages from underneath, something that basically occurred today, would the market just quit, or would it surprise, take them out and go higher?


We don't know if they'll be taken out with force, but it was solid action today to be sure. We'll get our answer next week on the take out, or not, but we also got slightly overbought today on the short-term charts. On top of that, we got a strong gap up today that wasn't filled, thus, the bulls have added some strength to the technicals, which were very against them coming in to today's action. That has changed to more neutral now. You know the bears have struggled to remove strong gap ups, thus, their job once again became more difficult. The market is making things difficult for both sides now. Today was a great day for the bulls technically, so now we wait to see what early next week brings. That should be the defining moment.

When markets get compressed and move straight down you accomplish a lot with regards to sentiment. The bull-bear spread has moved down 18 points from 46 to 28%. On top of that, there are now major out flows from stocks to bonds. Doesn't take long does it? Folks are running to bonds. That's more than interesting, and shows how little it takes in terms of selling to make that happen.

Before the move up late in the week we saw the Dow correct 8%, the S&P 500 6% and the Nasdaq about 5%. That's not all that much. With that little bit of selling folks are running to get out of the game. Have to love it. This tells me the market shouldn't collapse again all that soon, but you never know. There's probably lots of back and forth for a while, so take it easy on both sides. We may need deeper unwinding back up on the daily charts for a bit longer, but don't bet on that too heavily. For now, at least, we're seeing folks get more bearish.

Support now is at today's gap up level on the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) at 177.72. It won't be easy for the bears to eradicate this level. Only when they do on a closing basis can the bears consider that they're retaking the market back. Anything above that level keeps things neutral. Resistance is at 181.66. There's lots of room to move back and forth for a while just to make things more confusing for folks. If we do weave around for a while, that could allow things to unwind further to the upside on the daily charts, and then we should head lower again, but for now things are quite neutral. Play it as such.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2014 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014