Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20
U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" - 27th Jun 20
Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals - 27th Jun 20
Why People Have Always Held Gold - 27th Jun 20
Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance - 27th Jun 20
INTEL x86 Chip Giant Stock Targets Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for 2020's Growth - 25th Jun 20
Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here - 25th Jun 20
Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong - 25th Jun 20
Silver Price Trend Analysis - 24th Jun 20
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started - 24th Jun 20
Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal - 24th Jun 20
WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised - 24th Jun 20
All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold - 24th Jun 20
Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range - 23rd Jun 20
Elon Musk Mocks Nikola Motors as “Dumb.” Is He Right? - 23rd Jun 20
MICROSOFT Transforming from PC Software to Cloud Services AI, Deep Learning Giant - 23rd Jun 20
Stock Market Decline Resumes - 22nd Jun 20
Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead - 22nd Jun 20
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? - 22nd Jun 20
Most Shoppers have Stopped Following Supermarket Arrows, is Coughing the New Racism? - 22nd Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

The Fed Just Lost Any Shred of Credibility on Inflation

Economics / Inflation Jun 19, 2014 - 12:13 PM GMT

By: EconMatters

Economics

Those High Chicken Prices are just Noise – Tell that to the Cashier

The Fed today in their press conference lost any credibility on a number of issues, and it really goes to show that they have no clue what they are doing at this point. First they called the overheating inflation in the economy Noise, yes you heard right NOISE which is now showing up even in the watered down indexes used to track it by the Fed, and already above their target of 2% on a year over year basis and rising, (wait until you see the next two month`s CPI reports on a spike in gasoline prices as we enter the summer driving season).


45% Appreciation is Normal Price Discovery & In-Line with Historical Norms

Then Janet Yellen says she sees no signs of a bubble in equity prices after a 35% appreciation followed by what looks like another 10% plus year of appreciation in the cards for 2014. It is one thing to be dovish, but when one goes out of their way to mischaracterize the data to such an extreme that it makes one lose any credibility just to justify a given monetary policy, that is when the proverbial shit hits the fan.

No Clue at this Point!

We would expect some major market vigilantism and volatility once the next hot Employment report comes in two weeks, and a scorching CPI Report hits the tape in four weeks that only reinforces the fact that the Federal Reserve has no clue what they are doing at this point, and Janet Yellen is basically my Grandmother in charge of the Federal Reserve.

Frankly, that is doing a major disservice to my grandmother who could spot inflation when she sees it, there is no hope right now after hearing Janet Yellen speak in the press conference, she is completely incompetent and the exact worse person for what we are now entering in the inflation era!

Read More >>>The Inflation Era Has Arrived!

Managing Market Expectations

I tried to give her the benefit of the doubt, that she is just trying to talk down the market to keep rates low for as long as possible, and maybe even the hot inflation data recedes a slight bit; but even with the strategy of dropping the tightening monetary bomb all at once versus slowly raising market expectations in an incremental fashion, she still will be setting markets up for a huge disastrous exit event the longer she prolongs the inevitable.

But after listening to her talk in the press conference I am not even sure she is a qualified economist, moreover it is apparent she has no formal timeline for unwinding, and she cannot even properly understand basic economic relationships that any first year econ major has down after mid-terms!

Go back and look at the inflation data and explain to me why this is not an upward trend for 2014, and an unsettling trend given GDP was actually negative for the first quarter, what happens to inflation when GDP prints a 4 handle later this year? What happens to inflation when the strongest part of the year from a consumption and GDP standpoint comes gushing into the CPI Reports? Janet Yellen didn`t think that UPS and Fed-Ex recently raising their pricing policy to now cover size of packages from a volume standpoint versus strictly weight had anything to do with inflation? Guess when these price increases are going to push through into the economic data sets - a clue - future PPI & CPI Inflation reports!

If you have analysts who track these types of pricing pressures, and you can run forward models, why set yourself up to fail miserably in the future – it’s called managing expectations! She really has set herself up to fail by stubbornly refusing to acknowledge even near-term inflation levels, let alone future inflation pressures that will be much higher than her targeted forecast! These are basic corporate level CEO skills that any competent person in a management role understands, and it is unsettling that she doesn`t get this basic concept, and is managing the most powerful corporate board in the world!

Yellen`s Shelf-Life 2 Years

She has got to be the most dovish Fed chairperson in the history of the institution going into the most important policy initiative withdrawal phase ever to be recorded since the inception of the Federal Reserve!

She will probably step down in a year at this rate, as she obviously was the wrong person for the job! President Obama should have chosen Larry Summers for the position, and now this is really going to cause the entire monetary experiment to blow up, it is looking more and more like a foregone conclusion.

We are now going to have to resurrect Paul Volcker`s spirit to the Federal Reserve to dig us out this hyperinflation mess, once inflation I mean Noise gets so unbearable that Janet Yellen is forced to embarrassingly resign by the president as the bond market takes matters into its own hands!

35% Probability of Hyperinflation Cycle

With her increasingly dovish incompetence being on full display for market participants instead of the US merely entering an elevated inflation period, we now realize that Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve are so behind the inflation curve, and many other market implication curves, that we probably are staring at a 35% chance of a Hyper-Inflationary period by the time the Federal Reserve realizes that Noise is actually real inflation!

Setting Herself Up to Look Even More Out of Touch with Reality

The surprising thing is that she backed herself into a corner on the data, and I expect the inflation and employment data to keep coming in much hotter and well ahead of the Fed`s own forecasts, and she didn`t even leave herself any real wiggle room. With each new data point she and the Fed are going to look increasingly out of touch and well behind the curve that it is going to be shockingly laughable. If they sky is cloudy grey, and you keep saying that the sky is clear blue, people are going to stop listening to what you have to say, it’s called losing credibility, and the entire institution needs all the credibility they can muster at this most difficult time – the unwinding phase!

Loss of Credibility Worse than Actual Policy Decisions at this Crucial Monetary Pivot Point

The loss of credibility is by far worse than the actual policy decisions at this point, and after listening to Janet Yellen`s press conference, I am not sure she is a rational, logical, empirical thinking human being with her ridiculous comments regarding the stock market and inflation as she seems borderline senescent and incapable at best, and there is no doubt she is completely over her head at the Fed in this powerful position. I cannot wait to hear the Fed minutes of this latest Fed Meeting!

Markets will Dictate Policy for the Fed!

There is no hope for an elegant exit now from this monetary experiment, inflation will be at 4.5% before they even start raising rates! The bond market will be so far ahead of the Federal Reserve in terms of bond vigilantism that they are what will bring the Fed to finally realize that they have lost control of financial markets, and then it is endgame for interest rates!

Once the bond vigilantes take control of markets because they have no faith in the Federal Reserve, it is time to seriously reevaluate what the makeup and role the Federal Reserve should play in future monetary decisions going forward!

At this point we need a major overhaul regarding the powers of the Federal Reserve, if after the last Fed inspired bubble, where everybody made a note of the responsibility of not creating future “bubbly conditions” and with what I would called unsustainable artificial prices in many asset classes, it is obvious that the institution has no proper checks and balances and needs a major constitutional overhaul!

P.S. Final thought:

Yellen totally senile talking about 'noise' inflation. u can tell an ugly duckling she's Gissell 2.0, it does not change the 'ugly' fact!
— EconMatters (@EconMatters) June 19, 2014

By EconMatters

http://www.econmatters.com/

The theory of quantum mechanics and Einstein’s theory of relativity (E=mc2) have taught us that matter (yin) and energy (yang) are inter-related and interdependent. This interconnectness of all things is the essense of the concept “yin-yang”, and Einstein’s fundamental equation: matter equals energy. The same theories may be applied to equities and commodity markets.

All things within the markets and macro-economy undergo constant change and transformation, and everything is interconnected. That’s why here at Economic Forecasts & Opinions, we focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the markets to help you achieve a great continuum of portfolio yin-yang equilibrium.

That's why, with a team of analysts, we at EconMatters focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the financial markets that matters to your portfolio.

© 2014 Copyright EconMatters - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

EconMatters Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules