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U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

Stock Market Final Thrust Higher?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Jul 23, 2014 - 03:32 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Good Morning!

Yesterday I commented that the final Wave needed to have 5 lesser waves in the last thrust. This appears to be it. The target for this wavelet is 2000.00 in the SPX. Round numbers appear to have a psychological attraction and this is no different.


The Cycles Model suggests that today may be the final turn, being a double pivot day (two cycles reverse course in tandem). Seasonally, the second half of July usually marks the high point of the Summer rally, so this also falls into place.

In addition, this may be the onset of the weakest phase of the Presidential Election Cycle, which is expected to find a low in October, matching the Cycles Model.

Here are the last 24 year cycle lows:

October 11, 1990

November 5, 1994 (March 15 was lower)

October 22, 1998

September 10, 2002

July 15, 2006, July 1, 2010

The Cycle lows vary in intensity, but they are all evident on the long-term charts. 1986 is the only year that did not have a Presidential Cycle low (Reagan’s second term). The aftermath may have led to the crash of 1987. This year’s target date is October 22, 2014.

The VIX has not completed its final fifth wave of (c) of [ii]. It’s target appears to be 11.20.

TNX may have made is Intermediate Wave (B) on Monday. That will be confirmed should today’s decline not go beneath 24.48. This bottom is early in the Cycle pattern, but may be confirmed with a higher low on Monday, when it would usually occur. The ten year note is making a lower high this morning, so we may wish to monitor both.

Regards,

Tony

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Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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