Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
BREWING FINANCIAL CRISIS 2.0 Suggests RECESSION 2022 - 28th Jan 22
Financial Stocks Sector ETF XLF $37.50 Continues To Present Opportunities - 28th Jan 22
Stock Market Rushing Headlong - 28th Jan 22
The right way to play Climate Change Investing (not green energy stocks) - 28th Jan 22
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS - 27th Jan 22
The “play-to-earn” trend taking the crypto world by storm - 27th Jan 22
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Dangerous Nonsense: Trading the Equity Curve and Market Timing

InvestorEducation / Risk Analysis Dec 02, 2014 - 03:23 PM GMT

By: Submissions

InvestorEducation

Anthony Garner writes: Using a simple system it is said to be possible to achieve a better risk adjusted return than would be achieved by buy and hold. Maximum drawdown may be less severe and standard deviation may be lower.

Much is made by the retail investment community (and indeed others who should know better) of the advantages of algorithmic market timing based on limited testing over limited timeframes and over an even more limited number of instruments.


Systematic market timing only works in the aggregate, over a wide variety of instruments and over a long time frame.  I am very aggrieved when I see articles which use a small number of instruments, conduct very limited testing and conclude that “it works”.

Asset allocation “schemes” are amongst the worst offenders: commentators perform limited tests on 4 index trackers and conclude that applying some simple system will soundly beat the performance of every fund manager (and his uncle) who has ever lived.  Often such schemes use a single fixed monthly date to re-allocate between the sectors.  Often they tout the sort of performance metrics which may be achieved in the long term by one manager in a million, and then perhaps as much by chance as anything.

It is nonsense, pure and simple.

Much the same applies to “trading your equity curve”. The equity curve (or output) of a systematic investment strategy can itself be “market timed”. In the same way that you can exit the S&P 500 when it dips below the much vaunted 200 day moving average and re-enter when it re-crosses on the upside, you can stop and start your own systematic trading on the same basis.

But much the same considerations apply. If you have a single trading method, it’s going to be a toss-up: sometimes it will work sometimes it won’t.  If you trade a large number of systems you stand a better chance of benefitting overall from such a technique.

I will give one small example. The results set out below represent a monthly momentum system back tested on a portfolio of 1,000 US stocks for the period 1st January 1997 to date. The system used was a 20 stock enhanced version of the Smart Beta Stock Momentum System (http://anthonyfjgarner.net/quantechinvestments/smart-beta-stock-momentum-strategy/). The system used for each test run was identical in all respects except for the rolling date upon which re-allocation took place.  “Without cut out” represents the equity curve without using market timing. “With” represents the identical system but trading ceases when the 65 day momentum of the equity curve goes negative and re-commences when it re-enters positive momentum over the said look back period.

As can be seen, there is surprising variance in the results when you bear in mind that the only difference in the 31 test runs is the re-allocation date. Nonetheless there is evidence that some advantage may be gained by applying a stop/go form of market timing if it is applied to enough different systems/equity curves.

Clearly this very limited series of tests proves nothing. But it may encourage further research.

By Anthony Garner

http://anthonyfjgarner.net

Anthony Garner is a British national based in London. He left investment banking in 1992 in favour of a long cherished aim to work for himself and since 1995 has been trading financial markets for his own account, as well as having established, run or acted as consultant to a number of hedge funds. For some years now his interest has concentrated on designing, testing and trading mechanical strategies, since his years inside the financial industry convinced him that for the majority, the discipline of systematic trading is a better way to go. 

Anthony is CEO of Malplaquet LLC which engages in proprietary investment and trading in the international equity, bond and futures markets. The group was founded in 1998.

He has acted as consultant to IFIT Advisory AG on mechanical trading systems and the futures markets with reference to the Contrapuntal Fund SP, a systematic global macro fund.

He is the author of “A Practical Guide to ETF Trading Systems” published by Harriman House and has also written articles on trading and investment for a number of publications. After education at Westminster School, Oxford University and The College of Law, Anthony qualified and practiced as a solicitor with the leading London law firm of Slaughter and May, specializing in company and commercial law. Anthony then moved to Swiss Bank Corporation International (SBCI), the investment banking arm of Swiss Bank Corporation (now merged with UBS) first as an in-house attorney and then as an analyst, producing institutional research on South East Asian stock markets including Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. Anthony spent a year in Tokyo assisting with the establishment of SBCI’s equity operations in Japan followed by postings to Hong Kong, Singapore and Zurich covering the Asian equity markets.

© 2014 Copyright  Anthony Garner - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in