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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Ukraine's Civil 'Nuclear' War

Politics / Ukraine Civil War Feb 14, 2015 - 04:04 PM GMT

By: Andrew_McKillop


Don't Expect the MSM to Warn You
Some niche publishers and blog operators actually tell you about the clear unambiguous threat of the Ukraine war, civil war, conflict, Russia-West standoff, and so on, going nuclear easily and at any time.

Wasn't Ukraine the home of the Chernobyl disaster? Maybe it was too far back in time for you to chant "Pripiat mon amour", in those times before iPhone 5.x.i but you have the Next One. It really will be on the newzak shows from MSM outlets like Sky News, Aljazeera, BBC News, CNN, RT and the others.

When they tear themselves away from the professional football league results and not the inevitable 1- 0 win of the Ultras-versus- al Sisi in Egypt, the MSM will be whining about the devastation and the big TEZs or Total Exclusion Zones around deliberately attacked nuclear plants in Ukraine. And TEZ means TEZ. They won't be fighting inside the TEZs!

It is quite easy to chart the collapse of Ukraine as a viable economy from the 186 nuclear disaster and its fall-outt in all the senses of the term. Ukraine made a playact of not wanting to surrender and rebounce all its nuclear-tipped midrange missiles when it formally and finally quit the already defunct USSR, in the early 1990s.One logical fear of nuclear weapons monitors was that some of the "missing nukes" could be bargaining chips for the new Ukrainian government of the day, but other could literall be lost, stolen and unaccounted-for nuclear weapons in operating order.

We Won't Talk About Dirty Bombs and TEZs
An analogy is the Italian Seveso disaster which we can call a "dirty chemical bomb". like the Bhopal disaster in India. Dirty nuclear weapons would be similar except nuclear. The only difference!

Both Seveso and Bhopal had short-life TEZs, to strengthen the analogy. You can ask the Ukrainians and Japanese how long they expect their nuclear TEZs to be maintained, and if your interlocutor is feeling honest they would probably reply "say 400 years". It might be less, say 100 years depending on what kind of nuclear actinides were involved. Check back in century if you're still alive.

The real question is: "What is a clean bomb?" and the MSM will tell you its one which could kill Adolf Hitler Esq without killing too many bystanders and furry things and so forth, around him. That is already nothing to do with the Ukraine war, civil war (etc) where the artillery in play is way over the 105mm threshold with at least a 30-plus kilometre firezone, Use that as the centrl point-to-circumference measure to calculate the coming TEZ. Close to 3000 square kilometres.

To be sure, Minsk 2.0 gives Ukraine a spanking new DMZ-TEZ the size of Switzerland or 50k square kilometres, but its unlikely to last very long!

Japan's very own nuclear TEZ, unveiled or declared in 2011, Shinzo Abe-enabled, and therefore downsized, is not even 2000 square kilometres, but however it sterilized some very good farmland in farmland-starved Japan. As if Abe cares! He bailed out TEPCO, not the Pacific Ocean!.

Of course it would be a tragedy if one belligerant or another in Ukraine decided to use the Zero War option, after which no fighting happens in the TEZs, for centuries. Taking out an NPP with anything militarily serious - like a 155mm artillery piece with a 60 kilometre firezone - is a piece of cake.  No doubt our "friends" the Americans have drones with standoff air-ground missile capability able to take out an NPP, instead of a beardy-weirdie "Islamic radicals" riding theirToyota Landcruisers giving away their exact location with the GPS tag that Apple so kindly places in all its major products, sold to people stupid enough to buy Apple products. Not me!

You Can't "Can't Do That"
In all human history when anybody invented a new weapon, it was used. Prove the contrary. With industrial civilization "harnessing the powers of science" we inadvertently invent and use new weapons, not only on ourselves but also the furry things and the environment. The Chernobyl is however already recognized as Europe's biggest and most beautiful wildlife zone. The reason is simple - its a TEZ for all humans but the bears and deer, for example, can't read the warning signs and don't watch TV. We can hope the Kiev thugs and the separatist bombers don't start fighting inside the Chernobyl TEZ tucked up in the NE corner of Ukraine. They could hurt the furry things!

The Czech republic and Slovakia separated entirely peacefully. The Yugoslav Federation did not. Both Ireland and Greece and Spain had extreme-ugly civil wars not so long ago. Eu28 could become EU35+ quite easily, if the people were asked. Since Feb 2015 Australia has become a de facto member of the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) but it isn't certain that Australia will be able to vote in Eurovision song contests. That's a pity but adding two or three Ukraines to the EU-party would be so much better than bombing people in an already economically-ruined country, not so?

Bombing one or several NPPs would be a lousy idea. The Japanese already tried that trick in “civilian-like circumstances” and didn't like the results, but they have the Pacific Ocean to dump all the radioactive dirt in.  Shinzo Abe says the only disaster is how much time its taken to get the nukes back on line pumping out "cheap-clean-safe" electricity. Abe is renowned for his dumb sense of humor.

One of the mysteries of Japanese nuclear power, as in a lot of other nuclear-using countries is why hasn't Japan manufactured any nuclear weapons, to date? Its only parked the NPPs out and about for The Enemy to bomb. As we know, Japan's Sony Entertainment has done dastardly things to the reputation of North Korea's freaky US rap music-loving president, and he has missiles able to strike Japan's NPPs at any time.

So there is some kind of hold off-tipping point threshold for NPPs to be turned into gigantic dirty bombs, but we have to accept its not rocket (or even short range missile) science predicting when it will happen. Claims that "we" can dump all global stocks of high level radioactive wastes into the solar system, somewhere, are pure junk science. The only solution is dumping them into the Earth's tectonic plate subduction zones - where its a one-way trip to the center of the Earth with temperatures steadily rising to maybe 6000 degrees Celsius. Free incineration service 24/7 !

That's such an easy project, with all the world's unused deep ocean oil-gas equipment and the unused supertankers and super containerships we could load up and then send them down forever into The Plates of Eternity.

By Andrew McKillop


Former chief policy analyst, Division A Policy, DG XVII Energy, European Commission. Andrew McKillop Biographic Highlights

Co-author 'The Doomsday Machine', Palgrave Macmillan USA, 2012

Andrew McKillop has more than 30 years experience in the energy, economic and finance domains. Trained at London UK’s University College, he has had specially long experience of energy policy, project administration and the development and financing of alternate energy. This included his role of in-house Expert on Policy and Programming at the DG XVII-Energy of the European Commission, Director of Information of the OAPEC technology transfer subsidiary, AREC and researcher for UN agencies including the ILO.

© 2015 Copyright Andrew McKillop - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisor.

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