Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Five Charts That Show We Are on the Brink of an Unthinkable Financial Crisis- John_Mauldin
2.Bitcoin Parabolic Mania - Zeal_LLC
3.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – 2 - Raul_I_Meijer
4.Best Time / Month of Year to BUY a USED Car is DECEMBER, UK Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Labour Sheffield City Council Election Panic Could Prompt Suspension of Tree Felling's Private Security - N_Walayat
6.War on Gold Intensifies: It Betrays the Elitists’ Panic and Augurs Their Coming Defeat Part2 - Stewart_Dougherty
7.How High Will Gold Go? - Harry_Dent
8.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – Forks and Mad Max - Raul_I_Meijer
9.UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall - GoldCore
10.New EU Rules For Cross-Border Cash, Gold Bullion Movements - GoldCore
Last 7 days
Pension Crisis And Deficit of £2.6 Billion At Carillion To Impact UK - 22nd Jan 18
Two Factors for Gold That You Don’t Want to Miss - 22nd Jan 18
Why You Must Own Silver in 2018 - 22nd Jan 18
This Could Be The Hottest Mining Stock Of 2018 - 22nd Jan 18
Stock Index Trend Trade Setups for the SP500 & NASDAQ - 22nd Jan 18
Stock Market Deceleration / Distribution - 22nd Jan 18
US Markets vs Govt Shutdown: Stock Markets at all time highs - 22nd Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport - 1 Month Driving Test Review - 22nd Jan 18
Why should you use high-quality YouTube to mp3 converter? - 22nd Jan 18
Silver As Strategic Metal: Why Its Price Will Soar - 21st Jan 18
Stocks, Gold and Interest Rates Three Amigos Ride On - 21st Jan 18
Why Sometimes, "Beating the S&P 500" Isn't Good Enough - 21st Jan 18
Bunnies and Geckos of Sheffield Street Tree Fellings Protests Explained - 21st Jan 18
Jim Rickards: Next Financial Panic Will Be the Biggest of All, with Only One Place to Turn… - 20th Jan 18
Macro Trend Changes for Gold in 2018 and Beyond - Empire Club of Canada - 20th Jan 18
Top 5 Trader Information Sources for Timely, Successful Investing - 20th Jan 18
Bond Market Bear Creating Gold Bull Market - 19th Jan 18
Gold Stocks GDX $25 Breakout on Earnings - 19th Jan 18
SPX is Higher But No Breakout - 19th Jan 18
Game Changer for Bitcoin - 19th Jan 18
Upside Risk for Gold in 2018 - 19th Jan 18
Money Minute - A 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy - 19th Jan 18
Discovery Sport Real MPG Fuel Economy Vs Land Rover 53.3 MPG Sales Pitch - 19th Jan 18
For Americans Buying Gold and Silver: Still a Big U.S. Pricing Advantage - 19th Jan 18
5 Maps And Charts That Predict Geopolitical Trends In 2018 - 19th Jan 18
North Korean Quagmire: Part 2. Bombing, Nuclear Threats, and Resolution - 19th Jan 18
Complete Guide On Forex Trading Market - 19th Jan 18
Bitcoin Crash Sees Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars - 18th Jan 18
The Interest Rates Are What Matter In This Market - 18th Jan 18
Crude Oil Sweat, Blood and Tears - 18th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport - Week 3 HSE Black Test Review - 18th Jan 18
The North Korea Quagmire: Part 1, A Contest of Colonialism and Communism - 18th Jan 18
Understand Currency Trade and Make Plenty of Money - 18th Jan 18
Bitcoin Price Crash Below $10,000. What's Next? We have answers… - 18th Jan 18
How to Trade Gold During Second Half of January, Daily Cycle Prediction - 18th Jan 18
More U.S. States Are Knocking Down Gold & Silver Barriers - 18th Jan 18
5 Economic Predictions for 2018 - 18th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport - What You Need to Know Before Buying - Owning Week 2 - 17th Jan 18
Bitcoin and Stock Prices, Both Symptoms of Speculative Extremes! - 17th Jan 18
So That’s What Stock Market Volatility Looks Like - 17th Jan 18
Tips On Choosing the Right Forex Dealer - 17th Jan 18
Crude Oil is Starting 2018 Strong but there's Undeniable Risk to the Downside - 16th Jan 18
SPX, NDX, INDU and RUT Stock Indices all at Resistance Levels - 16th Jan 18
Silver Prices To Surge – JP Morgan Has Acquired A “Massive Quantity of Physical Silver” - 16th Jan 18
Carillion Bankruptcy and the PFI Sector Spiraling Costs Crisis, Amey, G4S, Balfour Beatty, Serco.... - 16th Jan 18
Artificial Intelligence - Extermination of Humanity - 16th Jan 18
Carillion Goes Bust, as Government Refuses to Bailout PFI Contractors Debt and Pensions Liabilities - 15th Jan 18
What Really Happens in Iran?  - 15th Jan 18
Stock Market Near an Intermediate Top? - 15th Jan 18
The Key Economic Indicator You Should Watch in 2018 - 15th Jan 18
London Property Market Crash Looms As Prices Drop To 2 1/2 Year Low - 15th Jan 18
Some Fascinating Stock Market Fibonacci Relationships... - 15th Jan 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

6 Critical Money Making Rules

Crude Oil Erases Price Gains

Commodities / Crude Oil Dec 01, 2015 - 07:53 AM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Commodities

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $54.12 and initial (!) target price at $35.72 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil lost 3.31% as a stronger greenback weighed on the price of the commodity. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude moved away from its key resistance area and closed another week below it. Will this event encourage oil bears to act in the coming days?


On Friday, the USD Index extended gains as expectations for a December rate hike continued to support the U.S. currency. As a result, the index climbed to an intraday high of 100.25, approaching the Mar high of 100.38 and making crude oil more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. In this environment, light crude reversed and declined sharply, moving away from its key resistance area and closed another week below it. Will this event encourage oil bears to act in the coming days? Let's examine charts and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com ).

On Wednesday, we wrote the following:

(...) crude oil extended gains and climbed to the blue resistance zone created by the Jan and Feb lows and reinforced by the blue resistance line (marked o the weekly chart). With this upswing, the commodity also reached the blue resistance zone created by the Sept and Oct lows and reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (based on the Nov declines).

What does it mean for light crude? In our opinion, this solid resistance zone will be strong enough to stop further improvement and trigger a pullback. The reason? Firstly, (...) the commodity gave up some of earlier gains and closed the day under the black dashed resistance line. Secondly, the size of volume that accompanied yesterday's upswing was smaller than day before, which doesn't confirm oil bulls' strength. Thirdly, although daily indicators generated buy signals, the sell signal generated by the weekly Stochastic Oscillator remains in place supporting oil bears.

Taking all the above into account, we think that reversal and lower values of the commodity are more likely than not.

As you see on the daily chart, the situation developed in line with the above scenario and crude oil moved sharply lower on Friday. With this downswing, the commodity invalidated a small breakout above the black dashed resistance line and erased all Wednesday's gains, which is a strong negative signal that suggests further deterioration in the coming week (even if oil bulls will try to re-test the key resistance area once again). If this is the case, and light crude declines from here, we'll see another test of the barrier of $40 in near future.

How did this price action affect the medium-term picture? Let's check.

From this perspective we see that although crude oil moved higher in the previous week, the blue resistance area stopped further improvement. As a result, the commodity reversed and declined, which suggests that could see a verification of earlier breakdown. At this point it is also worth noting that light crude closed another week under this zone, which means that the breakdown is confirmed by three consecutive weekly closures (a bearish signal). On top of that, a sell signal generated by the Stochastic Oscillator remains in place, which suggests that further deterioration is just around the corner.

Summing up, the key resistance zone stopped oil bulls, triggering a sharp decline. As a result, light crude closed another week below it, which suggests that earlier upward move was just a verification of earlier breakdown. Taking all the above into account, we believe that light crude will re-test the barrier of $40 in near future. Therefore, short positions (which are already profitable as we opened them when crude oil was trading around $46.69) continue to be justified from the risk/reward point of view.

Very short-term outlook: bearish
Short-term outlook: bearish
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: mixed with bearish bias

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $54.12 and initial (!) target price at $35.72 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
Przemyslaw Radomski
Founder, Editor-in-chief

Sunshine Profits: Gold & Silver, Forex, Bitcoin, Crude Oil & Stocks
Stay updated: sign up for our free mailing list today

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Nadia Simmons Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules